Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-50
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-50

  03 Mar 2021

03 Mar 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Regional analysis of multivariate compound flooding potential: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns

Paula Camus1, Ivan D. Haigh1, Ahmed Nasr2, Thomas Wahl2, Stephen E. Darby3, and Robert J. Nicholls4 Paula Camus et al.
  • 1School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
  • 2Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering & National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, 12800 Pegasus Drive, Suite 211, Orlando, FL 32816-2450, USA
  • 3School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Southampton, Avenue Campus, Highfield Road, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom
  • 4Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom

Abstract. In coastal regions, floods can arise through a combination of multiple drivers, including direct surface run- off, river discharge, storm surge and waves. In this study, we analyse compound flood potential in Europe caused by these four main flooding sources using state-of-the-art databases with homogenous forcing (i.e., ERA5). First, we perform an analysis to assess the sensitivity of the compound flooding potential to several factors: 1) sampling method; 2) time window to select the concurrent event of the conditioned driver; 3) dependence metrics; 4) wave-driven sea level definition. We observe higher correlation coefficients using annual maxima than peaks over threshold. Regarding the other factors, our results show similar spatial distributions of the compound flooding potential. Second, the dependence between the pairs of drivers using the Kendall's rank correlation coefficient and the joint occurrence are synthesized for coherent patterns of compound flooding potential using a clustering technique. This quantitative multi-driver assessment not only distinguishes where overall compound flooding potential is the highest, but also discriminates which driver combinations are more likely to contribute to compound flooding. We identify hotspots of compound flooding potential located along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea.

Paula Camus et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-50', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Mar 2021
  • RC2: 'Review of nhess-2021-50', Dominik Paprotny, 05 Apr 2021

Paula Camus et al.

Paula Camus et al.

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