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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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We present a research that attempts to address recent and future changes of hot and dry compound events in the Pyrenees, which can induce severe environmental hazards in this area. The results show that during last decades, this kind of compound events only increased due to the temperature increase. However, for the future, it is expected that the risk associated with these compound events will raise both by the thermal increase and the longer duration of drought periods.
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-5

  14 Jan 2021

14 Jan 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Assessing internal changes in the future structure of Dry-Hot compound events. The case of the Pyrenees

Marc Lemus-Canovas and Joan Albert Lopez-Bustins Marc Lemus-Canovas and Joan Albert Lopez-Bustins
  • Climatology Group, Department of Geography, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, 08001, Spain

Abstract. Impacts upon vulnerable areas such as mountain ranges may become greater under a future scenario of adverse climatic conditions. In this sense, the concurrence of long dry spells and extremely hot temperatures can induce environmental risks such as wildfires, crop yield losses or other problems, the consequences of which could be much more serious than if these events were to occur separately in time (e.g. only long dry spells). The present study attempts to address recent and future changes in the following dimensions: duration (D), magnitude (M) and extreme magnitude (EM) of compound Dry-Hot events in the Pyrenees. The analysis focuses upon changes in the extremely long dry spells and extremely high temperatures that occur within these dry periods, in order to estimate whether the internal structure of the compound event underwent a change in the observed period (1981–2015) and whether it will change in the future (2011–2100) under intermediate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. To this end, we quantified the changes in the temporal trends of such events, as well as changes in the bivariate probability density functions for the main Pyrenean regions. The results showed that to date the risk of the compound event has increased by only one dimension –magnitude (including extreme magnitude) – during the last few decades. In relation to the future, increased in risk was found to be associated with an increase both in the magnitude and the duration (extremely long dry spells) of the compound event, mainly in the eastern and southern regions of the Pyrenees.

Marc Lemus-Canovas and Joan Albert Lopez-Bustins

Status: open (until 25 Feb 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Marc Lemus-Canovas and Joan Albert Lopez-Bustins

Data sets

CLIMPY: Climate of the Pyrenees Cuadrat, José María, Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto, Tejedor, Ernesto, Saz, Miguel Ángel, Prohom, Marc, Cunillera, Jordi, Llabrés, Alba, Trapero, Laura, Pons, Marc, López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio, Copons, Ramon, Gascoin, Simon, Luna, Yolanda, Rodríguez, Ernesto, Ramos, Petra, Amblar, Pilar, and Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3611127

Marc Lemus-Canovas and Joan Albert Lopez-Bustins

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Short summary
We present a research that attempts to address recent and future changes of hot and dry compound events in the Pyrenees, which can induce severe environmental hazards in this area. The results show that during last decades, this kind of compound events only increased due to the temperature increase. However, for the future, it is expected that the risk associated with these compound events will raise both by the thermal increase and the longer duration of drought periods.
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