23 Feb 2022
23 Feb 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Variations and risk of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: a case study in the Gangjing river basin

Guangxu Liu1, Aicun Xiang1, Zhiwei Wan1, Yang Zhou2, Jie Wu1, Yuandong Wang1, and Sichen Lin1 Guangxu Liu et al.
  • 1School of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Gannan Normal University, Ganzhou 341000, China
  • 2Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China

Abstract. Climate warming increases flooding risk and the intensity of extreme precipitation. Studying changes and trends of extreme precipitation events is key in term of reducing flood risk and disaster loss. This paper investigates the thresholds, changes and time scales of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in meteorological stations in the Ganjiang river basin. We use Gamma distribution and choose L-moment method to estimate parameters. Results show that (1) precipitation events with very long duration occur rarely and have minimal contribution to the total precipitation; (2) Extreme precipitations have the characteristics of occasional but sudden occurrence in summer and spring and the intensity and occasional probability will increase in spring in the future in Yifeng, Zhangshu and Ningdu; (3) Risks were positively correlated with elevation in the northern plain and Jitai Basin in the midstream area while risks in the southern hilly area were negatively correlated with elevation. These findings should be helpful in adjusting regional land use planning and for emergency preparedness including risk management and relief operations in high-risk areas in the future.

Guangxu Liu et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-412', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Mar 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Guangxu Liu, 25 Mar 2022
  • AC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-412', Guangxu Liu, 25 Mar 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2021-412', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 May 2022

Guangxu Liu et al.

Guangxu Liu et al.


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Short summary
Analysing extreme precipitation with sub-daily records would reduce uncertainty in flood risk. This paper focusses on investigating the thresholds of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in the Ganjiang river basin using Gamma distribution, the L-moment metho and M-K test. Main findings were: (1) the intensity and occasional probability of precipitation events would increase in spring; (2) Elevation and low-level jet, the southward route of typhoons were the key factors for flood risk.