Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-407
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-407
 
10 Jan 2022
10 Jan 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal NHESS and is expected to appear here in due course.

Integrated drought risk assessment to support adaptive policy making in the Netherlands

Marjolein Mens1, Gigi van Rhee2, Femke Schasfoort1, and Neeltje Kielen3 Marjolein Mens et al.
  • 1Department of water resources management, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
  • 2Stratelligence, Leiden, the Netherlands
  • 3Rijkswaterstaat, Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, Lelystad, the Netherlands

Abstract. Adaptive policy-making to prepare for current and future drought risks requires an integrated assessment of policy actions and combinations of those under changing conditions. This entails quantification of drought risks, integrating drought probability and socio-economic consequences for all relevant sectors that are potentially impacted by drought. The investment costs of proposed policy actions and strategies (various actions combined) can then be compared with the expected risk reduction to determine the cost-effectiveness. This paper presents a method to quantify drought risk in the Netherlands under changing future conditions and in response to policy actions. It illustrates how to use this information as part of a societal cost-benefit analysis and in building an adaptive long-term strategy. The method has been successfully applied to support decision making on the Netherlands’ national drought risk management strategy as part of the National Delta Program for climate change adaptation.

Marjolein Mens et al.

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-407', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Jan 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Marjolein Mens, 31 Jan 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2021-407', Anonymous Referee #2, 24 Jan 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Marjolein Mens, 31 Jan 2022

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-407', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Jan 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Marjolein Mens, 31 Jan 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2021-407', Anonymous Referee #2, 24 Jan 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Marjolein Mens, 31 Jan 2022

Marjolein Mens et al.

Marjolein Mens et al.

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Short summary
Many countries have to prepare for droughts by proposing policy actions to increase water supply, reduce water demand, or limit the societal impact. Societal cost-benefit analysis is required to support decision-making for a range of future scenarios, accounting for climate change and socio-economic developments. This paper presents a framework to assess drought policy actions based on quantification of drought risk and exemplifies it for the Netherlands’ drought risk management strategy.
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