Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-400
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-400
 
31 Jan 2022
31 Jan 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Sensitivity of simulating Typhoon Haiyan (2013) using WRF: the role of cumulus convection, surface flux parameterizations, spectral nudging and initial and boundary conditions

Rafaela Jane Delfino1,2, Gerry Bagtasa2, Kevin Hodges1, and Pier Luigi Vidale1 Rafaela Jane Delfino et al.
  • 1Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
  • 2Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology, University of the Philippines-Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines

Abstract. Typhoon (TY) Haiyan was one of the most intense and highly destructive tropical cyclones (TCs) to affect the Philippines. As such, it is regarded as a baseline for extreme TC hazards. Improving the simulation of such TCs will not only improve the forecasting of intense TCs but will also be essential in understanding the potential sensitivity of future intense TCs with climate change. In this study, we investigate the effects of model configuration in downscaling TY Haiyan using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) Model. Sensitivity experiments were conducted by systematically altering the choice of cumulus schemes, surface flux options, and spectral nudging. In addition to using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-analysis 5th Generation (ERA5) single high resolution realization as initial and boundary conditions, we also used four of the ten lower resolution ERA5 Data Assimilation System (EDA) ensemble members as initial and boundary conditions. Results indicate a high level of sensitivity to cumulus schemes, with a trade-off between using Kain-Fritsch and Tiedtke schemes that have not been mentioned in past studies of TCs in the Philippines. The Tiedtke scheme simulates the track better (with a lower mean Direct Positional Error (DPE) of 33 km), while the Kain-Fritsch scheme produces stronger intensities (by 15 hPa minimum sea level pressure). Spectral nudging also resulted in a reduction in the mean DPE by 20 km and varying the surface flux options resulted in the improvement of the simulated maximum sustained winds by up to 10 ms−1. Simulations using the EDA members initial and boundary conditions revealed low sensitivity to the initial and boundary conditions, having less spread than the simulations using different parameterization schemes. We highlight the advantage of using an ensemble of cumulus parameterizations to take into account the uncertainty in the track and intensity of simulating intense tropical cyclones.

Rafaela Jane Delfino et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-400', Anonymous Referee #1, 24 Feb 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Rafaela Jane Delfino, 11 May 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Rafaela Jane Delfino, 11 May 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2021-400', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 Mar 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Rafaela Jane Delfino, 11 May 2022
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC2', Rafaela Jane Delfino, 11 May 2022

Rafaela Jane Delfino et al.

Rafaela Jane Delfino et al.

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Short summary
We showed the effects of altering the choice of cumulus schemes, surface flux options, and spectral nudging; with a high level of sensitivity to cumulus schemes in simulating an intense typhoon. We highlight the advantage of using an ensemble of cumulus parameterizations to take into account the uncertainty in simulating typhoons such as Haiyan in 2013. This study is useful in addressing the growing need to plan and prepare for, and reduce the impacts of intense typhoons in the Philippines.
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