Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-370
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-370

  13 Dec 2021

13 Dec 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

An Interdisciplinary Agent-based Evacuation Model: Integrating Natural Environment, Built environment, and Social System for Community Preparedness and Resilience

Chen Chen1, Charles Koll2, Haizhong Wang1, and Michael Lindell3 Chen Chen et al.
  • 1School of Civil and Construction Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331
  • 2School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331
  • 3Department of Urban Design and Planning, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195

Abstract. Previous tsunami evacuation simulations have mostly been based on arbitrary assumptions or inputs adapted from non-emergency situations, but a few studies have used empirical behavior data. This study bridges this gap by integrating empirical decision data from local evacuation expectations surveys and evacuation drills into an agent-based model of evacuation behavior for a Cascadia Subduction Zone community. The model also considers the impacts of liquefaction and landslides from the earthquake on tsunami evacuation. Furthermore, we integrate the slope-speed component from Least-cost-distance to build the simulation model that better represents the complex nature of evacuations. The simulation results indicate that milling time and evacuation participation rate have significant non-linear impacts on tsunami mortality estimates. When people walk faster than 1 m/s, evacuation by foot is more effective because it avoids traffic congestion when driving. We also find that evacuation results are more sensitive to walking speed, milling time, evacuation participation, and choosing the closest safe location than to other behavioral variables. Minimum tsunami mortality results from maximizing the evacuation participation rate, minimizing milling time, and choosing the closest safe destination outside of the inundation zone. This study's comparison of the agent-based model and BtW model finds consistency between the two models' results. By integrating the natural system, built environment, and social system, this interdisciplinary model incorporates substantial aspects of the real world into the multi-hazard agent-based platform. This model provides a unique opportunity for local authorities to prioritize their resources for hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.

Chen Chen et al.

Status: open (until 13 Feb 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-370', Erick Mas, 05 Jan 2022 reply

Chen Chen et al.

Chen Chen et al.

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Short summary
This paper uses empirical data-based simulation to analyze how to evacuate efficiently from disasters. We find that departure delay time and evacuation decision have significant impacts on evacuation results. Evacuation results are more sensitive to walking speed, departure delay time, evacuation participation, and destinations than to other variables. This model can help authorities to prioritize resources for hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.
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