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<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">NHESSD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">NHESSD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2195-9269</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/nhess-2021-364</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Impact of spatial data uncertainty in debris flow susceptibility analysis</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kurilla</surname>
<given-names>Laurie Jayne</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6461-0025</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fubelli</surname>
<given-names>Giandomenico</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>University of Turin, Department of Earth Sciences</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>15</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2021</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>21</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2021 Laurie Jayne Kurilla</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2021</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2021-364/">This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2021-364/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2021-364/nhess-2021-364.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2021-364/nhess-2021-364.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>&lt;p&gt;In a study of debris flow susceptibility on the European continent, an analysis of the impact between known location and a location accuracy offset for 99 debris flows, demonstrates the impact of uncertainty in defining appropriate predisposing factors, and consequent analysis for areas of susceptibility.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The dominant predisposing environmental factors, as determined through Maximum Entropy modeling, are presented, and analyzed with respect to the values found at debris flow event points versus a buffered distance of locational uncertainty around each point.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Five Maximum Entropy susceptibility models are developed utilizing the original debris flow inventory of points, randomly generated points, and two models utilizing a subset of points with an uncertainty of 5 km, 1 km, and a model utilizing only points with a known location of &amp;ldquo;exact&amp;rdquo;. The AUCs are 0.891, 0.893, 0.896, 0.921, and 0.93, respectively. The &amp;ldquo;exact&amp;rdquo; model, with the highest AUC, is ignored in final analyses due to the small number of points, and localized distribution, and hence susceptibility results likely non-representational of the continent.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Each model is analyzed with respect to the AUC, highest contributing factors, factor classes, susceptibility impact, and comparisons of the susceptibility distributions and susceptibility value differences.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Based on model comparisons, geographic extent and context of this study, the models utilizing points with a location uncertainty of less than or equal to 5 km best represent debris flow susceptibility of the continent of Europe. A novel representation of the uncertainty is expressed, and included in a final susceptibility map, as an overlay of standard deviation and mean of susceptibility values for the two best models, providing additional insight for subsequent action.&lt;/p&gt;</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="21"/></counts>
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