Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-351
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-351
 
07 Dec 2021
07 Dec 2021
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis for North Tabriz Fault

Mohamadreza Hosseyni1 and Habib Rahimi2 Mohamadreza Hosseyni and Habib Rahimi
  • 1M.Sc. Graduated, Department of Earth Physics, Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
  • 2Associate Professor, Department of Earth Physics, Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract. The probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis is one of the new methods in estimating the amount of possible displacement in the area at the hazard of causal fault rupture. In this study, using the probabilistic approach and earthquake method introduced by Youngs et al., 2003, the surface displacement of the North Tabriz fault has been investigated, and the possible displacement in different scenarios has been estimated. By considering the strike-slip mechanism of the North Tabriz fault and using the earthquake method, the probability of displacement due to surface ruptures caused by 1721 and 1780 North Tabriz fault earthquakes has been explored. These events were associated with 50 and 60 km of surface rupture, respectively. The 50–60 km long section of the North Tabriz fault was selected as the source of possible surface rupture.

We considered two scenarios according to possible displacements, return periods, and magnitudes which are reported in paleoseismic studies of the North Tabriz fault. As the first scenario, possible displacement, return period, and magnitude was selected between zero to 4.5; 645 years and Mw~7.7, respectively. In the second scenario, possible displacement, return period and magnitude were selected between zero to 7.1, 300 years, and Mw~7.3, respectively. For both mentioned scenarios, the probabilistic displacements for the rate of exceedance 5 % in 50, 475, and 2475 years for the principle possible displacements (on fault) of the North Tabriz fault have been estimated. For the first and second scenarios, the maximum probabilistic displacement of the North Tabriz fault at a rate of 5 % in 50 years is estimated to be 186 and 230 cm. Also, mentioned displacements for 5 % exceedance in 475 years and 2475 years in both return periods of 645 and 300 years, are estimated at 469 and 655 cm.

Mohamadreza Hosseyni and Habib Rahimi

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-351', R. E. S. Moss, 11 Jan 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Habib Rahimi, 18 Jan 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2021-351', Anonymous Referee #2, 27 Jan 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Habib Rahimi, 19 Mar 2022

Mohamadreza Hosseyni and Habib Rahimi

Mohamadreza Hosseyni and Habib Rahimi

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Short summary
Earthquakes, not only because of earth-shaking but also because of surface ruptures, are a serious threat to many human activities. Reducing earthquake losses and damages requires predicting the amplitude and location of ground movements and possible surface displacements in the future. Using the probabilistic approach and earthquake method, the surface displacement of the North Tabriz fault has been investigated, and the possible displacement in different scenarios has been estimated.
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