Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-342
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-342
 
25 Nov 2021
25 Nov 2021
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms

Heinz Jürgen Punge1, Kristopher M. Bedka2, Michael Kunz1, Sarah D. Bang3, and Kyle F. Itterly4 Heinz Jürgen Punge et al.
  • 1Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
  • 2NASA Langley Research Center, Science Directorate, Climate Science Branch, Hampton, VA, USA
  • 3NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (ST-11), Huntsville, AL, USA
  • 4Science Systems and Applications Inc., Hampton, Virginia USA

Abstract. Accurate estimates of hail risk to fixed and mobile assets such as crops, infrastructure and vehicles are required for both insurance pricing and preventive measures. Here we present an event catalog to describe hail hazard in South Africa guided by 14 years of geostationary satellite observations of convective storms. Overshooting cloud tops have been detected, grouped and tracked to describe the spatio-temporal extent of potential hail events. It is found that hail events concentrate mainly in the southeast of the country, along the Highveld and the eastern slopes. Events are most frequent from mid-November through February and peak in the afternoon, between 13 and 17 UTC. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event properties yields an event catalog spanning 25 000 years, aiming to estimate, in combination with vulnerability and exposure data, hail damage for return periods of 200 years.

Heinz Jürgen Punge et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-342', Anonymous Referee #1, 21 Dec 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Michael Kunz, 31 Mar 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2021-342', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Dec 2021
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Michael Kunz, 31 Mar 2022

Heinz Jürgen Punge et al.

Heinz Jürgen Punge et al.

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Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance loss data. It is found that hail concentrate mainly in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event properties, such as multiple events on a day or track dimensions, yields an event catalog for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, required for insurance companies.
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