<p>Based on future scenario data and an improved quantitative assessment model of natural disaster risk, in this paper, we analyze the response of the characteristics of flooding events in China to 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming, quantitatively assess social and economic risks of the floods, and determine the integrated risk levels. The results indicate that for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the hazard and distribution area of the floods increase with increasing temperature and the influence range of floods in different levels expands more rapidly under RCP4.5 scenario. The floods mainly affect the social economy in the regions with lower altitudes and smaller slopes in eastern China. With intensification of temperature rise, the affected population and the direct economic losses would be aggravated. For 2 °C of global warming, under RCP8.5 scenario, affected population by floods would increase by 2 million and the economic risk would nearly double compared with 1.5 °C of global warming. The economic risk under RCP4.5 scenario would even reach three times that for 1.5 °C of global warming, but its proportion to GDP is lower than that of RCP8.5 scenario. Under both scenarios, the ranges of the medium-high flood risk zones would gradually expand westward and northward.</p>