Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-304
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-304

  21 Oct 2021

21 Oct 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Half a degree warming might cause doubled economic loss and intensified affected population of flood in China

Lulu Liu1,2, Jiangbo Gao1,2, and Shaohong Wu1,2,3 Lulu Liu et al.
  • 1Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • 2Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • 3University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Abstract. Based on future scenario data and an improved quantitative assessment model of natural disaster risk, in this paper, we analyze the response of the characteristics of flooding events in China to 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming, quantitatively assess social and economic risks of the floods, and determine the integrated risk levels. The results indicate that for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the hazard and distribution area of the floods increase with increasing temperature and the influence range of floods in different levels expands more rapidly under RCP4.5 scenario. The floods mainly affect the social economy in the regions with lower altitudes and smaller slopes in eastern China. With intensification of temperature rise, the affected population and the direct economic losses would be aggravated. For 2 °C of global warming, under RCP8.5 scenario, affected population by floods would increase by 2 million and the economic risk would nearly double compared with 1.5 °C of global warming. The economic risk under RCP4.5 scenario would even reach three times that for 1.5 °C of global warming, but its proportion to GDP is lower than that of RCP8.5 scenario. Under both scenarios, the ranges of the medium-high flood risk zones would gradually expand westward and northward.

Lulu Liu et al.

Status: open (until 23 Dec 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-304', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Oct 2021 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2021-304', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Dec 2021 reply

Lulu Liu et al.

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Short summary
Based on future scenario data and an improved quantitative assessment model of natural disaster risk, in this paper, we analyze the response of the characteristics of flooding events in China to 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming, quantitatively assess social and economic risks of the floods, and determine the integrated risk levels.
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