Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-301
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-301

  15 Oct 2021

15 Oct 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of Vulcano Island, Italy

Costanza Bonadonna1, Ali Asgary2, Franco Romerio3,4, Tais Zulemyan1, Corine Frischknecht1, Chiara Cristiani5, Mauro Rosi6, Chris E. Gregg1,7, Sebastien Biass8, Marco Pistolesi6, Scira Menoni1,9, and Antonio Ricciardi5 Costanza Bonadonna et al.
  • 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
  • 2School of Administrative Studies, York University, Toronto, Canada
  • 3Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
  • 4Institute for Environmental Sciences, Geneva, Switzerland
  • 5Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Roma, Italy
  • 6Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università Pisa, Italy
  • 7Department of Geosciences, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, USA
  • 8Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
  • 9Politecnico di Milano, Architettura e Pianificazione, Milano, Italy

Abstract. Evacuation planning and management represents a key aspect of volcanic crises because it can increase people protection as well as minimize the potential impact on the economy, properties, and infrastructure of the affected area. Assessment of evacuation scenarios that consider human and economic impact is best done in a pre-disaster context as it helps authorities develop evacuation plans and make informed decisions outside the highly stressful time period that characterizes crises. We present an agent-based simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios using Vulcano island (Italy) as a case study. Simulation results show that the overall time needed to evacuate people should be analysed together with the percentage of people evacuated as a function of time and that a simultaneous evacuation on Vulcano is more efficient than a staged evacuation. We also present a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period that reveals that an evacuation of Vulcano would cause significant economic impact to the tourism industry if lasting more than 3 months (in case it was initiated at the beginning of the visitor season) to 1 year (in case it was initiated at the end of the visitor season).

Costanza Bonadonna et al.

Status: open (until 28 Dec 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-301', Anonymous Referee #1, 07 Nov 2021 reply

Costanza Bonadonna et al.

Costanza Bonadonna et al.

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Short summary
Evacuation planning and management represents a key aspect of volcanic crises because it can increase people protection as well as minimize the potential impact on the economy, properties, and infrastructure of the affected area. We present a simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios using Vulcano island (Italy) as a case study. We also present a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period.
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