Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-298
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-298

  02 Nov 2021

02 Nov 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Hotspots for warm and dry summers in eastern Europe, with a focus on Romania

Viorica Nagavciuc1,2, Patrick Scholz1, and Monica Ionita1,3 Viorica Nagavciuc et al.
  • 1Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Paleoclimate Dynamics Group, Bremerhaven, Germany
  • 2Faculty of Forestry, Ștefan cel Mare University, Suceava, Romania
  • 3Emil Racovita Institute of Speleology, Romanian Academy, Cluj-Napoca, Romania

Abstract. The combined effect of hot and dry extremes can have disastrous consequences for the society, economy, and the environment. While a significant number of studies have been conducted regarding the variability of the individual hot or dry extremes in Romania, the evaluation of the combined effect of these extremes (e.g. compound effect) is still lacking for this region. Thus, in this study we have assessed the spatio-temporal variability and trends of hot and dry summers in the eastern part of Europe, focusing on Romania, between 1950 and 2020 and we have analyzed the relationship between the frequency of hot summers and the prevailing large-scale atmospheric circulation. The length, spatial extent and frequency of HWs in Romania has increased significantly over the last 70 years, while for the drought conditions no significant changes have been observed. The rate of increase in the frequency and spatial extent of HWs has accelerated significantly after the 1990’s, while the smallest number of HWs was observed between 1970 and 1985. The hottest years, in terms of heatwave duration and frequency, were 2007, 2012, 2015, and 2019. One of the key drivers of hot summers, over our analyzed region, is the prevailing large-scale circulation, featuring an anticyclonic circulation over the central and eastern parts of Europe and enhanced atmospheric blocking activity associated with positive temperature anomalies underneath. We conclude that our study can help improve our understanding of the spatio-temporal variability of hot and dry summers, especially at the regional scale, as well as their driving mechanisms which might lead to a better predictability of these extreme events.

Viorica Nagavciuc et al.

Status: open (until 16 Dec 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-298', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Nov 2021 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2021-298', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Nov 2021 reply

Viorica Nagavciuc et al.

Viorica Nagavciuc et al.

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Short summary
Here we have assessed the variability and trends of hot and dry summers in Romania. The length, spatial extent, and frequency of heatwaves in Romania have increased significantly over the last 70 years, while no significant changes have been observed in the drought conditions. The increased frequency of heatwaves, especially after the 1990s, could be partially explained by an increase in the geopotential height over the eastern part of Europe.
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