08 Feb 2022
08 Feb 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Physically-Based Modelling of co-seismic Landslide, Debris Flow and Flood Cascade

Bastian van den Bout1, Chenxiao Tang2, Cees van Westen1, and Victor Jetten1 Bastian van den Bout et al.
  • 1Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente
  • 2Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences & Ministry of Water Conservancy

Abstract. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake lead to various complex multi-hazard chains that included seismically-triggered landslide initiation, landslide run-out, river damming, dam breaching and flooding. The modelling of the interactions between such hazardous processes is challenging due to the complexity and uncertainty. Here we present an event-based physically-based model that is able to simulate multi-hazard land surface process chains within a single unified simulation. The final model is used to simulate a multi-hazard chain event in the Hongchun watershed, where co-seismic landslides led to a landslide dam and, two years later, a debris flow that breached the landslide dam. While most aspects of the multi-hazard chain are well predicted, the correct prediction of slope failures remains the biggest challenge. Although the results should be treated carefully, the development of such a model provides a significant progress in the applicability of multi-hazard chain simulations.

Bastian van den Bout et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-292', Martin Mergili, 21 Feb 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Bastian van den Bout, 23 May 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2021-292', Tommaso Baggio, 07 Mar 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Bastian van den Bout, 23 May 2022

Bastian van den Bout et al.

Bastian van den Bout et al.


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Short summary
Natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides and flooding do not always occur as stand-alone events. After the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, a co-seismic landslide blocked a stream in Hongchun. Two years later, a debris flow breached the material, blocked the Min river, resulting in flooding of a small town. We developed a multi-process model that captures the full cascade. Despite input and process uncertainties, probability of flooding was high due to topography and trigger intensities.