Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-280
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-280

  19 Oct 2021

19 Oct 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Ground motions variability in Israel from 3-D simulations of M 6 and M 7 earthquakes

Jonatan Glehman1 and Michael Tsesarsky1,2 Jonatan Glehman and Michael Tsesarsky
  • 1Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, 8410501, Israel
  • 2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, 8410501, Israel

Abstract. In Israel, due to low seismicity rates and sparse seismic network, the temporal and spatial coverage of ground motion data is insufficient to estimate the variability of moderate-strong (M > 6) ground motions required to construct a local ground motion model (GMM). To fill this data gap and to study the ground motions variability of M > 6 events, we performed a series of 3-D numerical simulations of M 6 and M 7 earthquakes. Based on the results of the simulations, we developed a statistical attenuation model (AM) and studied the residuals between simulated and AM PGVs and the single station variability. We also compared the simulated ground motions with a global GMM in terms of peak ground velocity (PGV) and significant duration (Ds 595). Our results suggest that the AM was unable to fully capture the simulated ground motions variability, mainly due to the incorporation of super-shear rupture and effects of local sedimentary structures. We also show that an imported GMM considerably deviates from simulated ground motions. This work sets the basis for future development of a comprehensive GMM for Israel, accounting for local sources, path, and site effects.

Jonatan Glehman and Michael Tsesarsky

Status: open (until 29 Dec 2021)

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Jonatan Glehman and Michael Tsesarsky

Jonatan Glehman and Michael Tsesarsky

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Short summary
Due to an insufficient number of recorded moderate-strong earthquakes in Israel, estimating the ground motions and the subsequent seismic hazard mitigation becomes a challenge. To fill this gap, we performed a series of 3D numerical simulations of moderate and moderate-strong earthquakes. We examined the ground motions and their variability through a self-developed statistical model. However, the model cannot fully capture the ground motions variability due to the local seismo-tectonic setting.
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