Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-278
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-278

  17 Nov 2021

17 Nov 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Validating a Tailored Disaster Risk Assessment Methodology: Drought Risk Assessment in Local PNG Regions

Isabella Aitkenhead1,2, Yuriy Kuleshov1,2,3, Jessica Bhardwaj1,2, Zhi-Weng Chua1,2, Chayn Sun1, and Suelynn Choy1 Isabella Aitkenhead et al.
  • 1Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
  • 2Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, Victoria, Australia
  • 3The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia

Abstract. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of natural hazards, causing adverse impacts on vulnerable communities. Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are of particular concern, requiring resilient disaster risk management consisting of two key elements: proactivity and suitability. User-centred Integrated Early Warning Systems (I-EWSs) can inform resilient risk management. However, an EWS is only effectively integrated when all components are functioning adequately. In Pacific SIDS, the risk knowledge component of an I-EWS is underexplored. Risk knowledge is improved through efficient risk assessment. A case study assessing drought risk in PNG provinces was conducted to demonstrate the development and validate the application of a tailored risk assessment methodology. Hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indicators appropriate for monitoring drought in PNG provinces were selected. Risk indices for past years (2014–2020) were calculated and mapped in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Risk assessment results were validated with a literature investigation of sources presenting information on previous droughts in PNG. The risk assessment indicated a strong drought event in 2015–2016, and a moderate event in 2019–2020. The literature corroborated this, confirming the validity of the risk assessment methodology. The methodology and results can be used to inform improved disaster risk management in PNG, by advising decision-makers of their risk and policymakers on which provinces are of priority for resource allocation. The methodology can also be used to enhance the risk knowledge component of a user-centred I-EWS and guide the implementation of such a system for drought in PNG and other Pacific SIDS.

Isabella Aitkenhead et al.

Status: open (until 29 Dec 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Isabella Aitkenhead et al.

Isabella Aitkenhead et al.

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Short summary
A case study assessing drought risk in Papua New Guinea (PNG) provinces for past years (2014–2020) was conducted to demonstrate the development and validate the application of a tailored drought risk assessment methodology. Hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indicators appropriate for monitoring drought in PNG provinces were selected. The risk assessment indicated a strong drought event in 2015–2016, and a moderate event in 2019–2020.
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