Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-263
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-263

  19 Oct 2021

19 Oct 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Dynamic Risk Assessment of Compound Hazards Based on VFS-IEM-IDM: A Case Study of Typhoon-Rainstorm Hazards in Shenzhen, China

Wenwu Gong1, Jie Jiang2, and Lili Yang1 Wenwu Gong et al.
  • 1Department of Statistics and Data Science, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, China
  • 2Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, China

Abstract. Typhoons and rainstorms are types of natural hazards that can cause significant impacts. These individual hazards may also occur simultaneously to produce compound hazards, leading to increased losses. The accurate risk assessment of such compound hazards faces several challenges due to the uncertainties in multiple hazards level evaluation, and the incomplete information in historical data sets. In this paper, to deal with these challenges, we propose a risk assessment model called VFS-IEM-IDM based on the Variable Fuzzy Set and Information Diffusion Method. In particular, VFS-IEM-IDM provides a comprehensive evaluation of the compound hazards level, and a predictive cumulative logistic model is used to verify the results. Furthermore, VFS-IEM-IDM applies a normal information diffusion estimator to estimate the conditional probability distribution and the vulnerability distribution of the compound hazards based on the hazards level, the hazards occurrence time, and the corresponding losses. To examine the efficacy of VFS-IEM-IDM, a case study of the Typhoon-Rainstorm hazards that occurred in Shenzhen, China is presented. The risk assessment results indicate that hazards of level Ⅱ mostly occur in August and October, while hazards of level Ⅲ often occur in September. The risk of the Typhoon-Rainstorm hazards differs in each month and in August and September the risk gets the highest value, and the estimated economic losses are around 114 million RMB and 167 million RMB respectively.

Wenwu Gong et al.

Status: open (until 23 Dec 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-263', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Nov 2021 reply
    • CC1: 'Reply on RC1', Gong Wenwu, 10 Nov 2021 reply

Wenwu Gong et al.

Wenwu Gong et al.

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Short summary
Risk assessment is an important step in emergency management, but little research discusses the uncertainties of compound hazards evaluation and considers dynamic risk assessments when the data sets are incomplete. In this paper, we propose a risk assessment model called VFS-IEM-IDM to deal with compound hazards risk assessment dynamically, and a case study of the Typhoon-Rainstorm hazards that occurred in Shenzhen, China is presented.
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