Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-236
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-236

  18 Aug 2021

18 Aug 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Extreme Storm Surge estimation and projection through the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution

Maria Francesca Caruso and Marco Marani Maria Francesca Caruso and Marco Marani
  • Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Padova, 35131, Padova, Italy

Abstract. Accurate estimates of the probability of extreme sea levels are pivotal for assessing risk and the design of coastal defense structures. This probability is typically estimated by modelling observed sea-level records using one of a few statistical approaches. In this study we comparatively apply the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, based on Block Maxima (BM) and Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) formulations, and the recently Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD) to four long time series of sea-level observations distributed along European coastlines. A cross-validation approach, dividing available data in separate calibration and test sub-samples, is used to compare their performances in high-quantile estimation. To address the limitations posed by the length of the observational time series, we quantify the estimation uncertainty associated with different calibration sample sizes, from 5 to 30 years. Focusing on events with a high return period, we find that the GEV-based approaches and MEVD perform similarly when considering short samples (5 years), while the MEVD estimates outperform the traditional methods when longer calibration sample sizes (10-30 years) are considered. We then investigate the influence of sea-level rise through 2100 on storm surges frequencies. The projections indicate an increase in the height of storm surges for a fixed return period that are spatially heterogeneous across the coastal locations explored.

Maria Francesca Caruso and Marco Marani

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-236', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 Sep 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2021-236', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Sep 2021

Maria Francesca Caruso and Marco Marani

Maria Francesca Caruso and Marco Marani

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Short summary
We introduce a new approach to estimate the frequency of extreme sea levels based on the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD). The MEVD maximizes the use of the observational information and it is found to provide practical and conceptual advantages with respect to traditional statistical methods. Leveraging the increased estimation accuracy afforded by this approach, we quantify future changes in the frequency of extreme sea levels at four representative study sites.
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