Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-210
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-210

  19 Jul 2021

19 Jul 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

The role of morphodynamics in predicting coastal flooding from storms on a dissipative microtidal beach with SLR conditions: Cartagena de Indias (Colombia)

Jairo E. Cueto Fonseca1, Luis J. Otero Díaz2, Silvio R. Ospino Ortiz2,3, and Alec Torres-Freyermuth4 Jairo E. Cueto Fonseca et al.
  • 1Research Group in Natural and Exact Sciences – GICNEX. Department of Natural and Exact Sciences. Universidad de la Costa. Barranquilla (Atlántico), Colombia
  • 2Research Group in Geosciences – GEO4. Department of Physics and Geosciences, Universidad del Norte. Barranquilla (Atlántico), Colombia
  • 3Centro de Investigación de Ingeniería de Cormagdalena – CIIC. Barranquilla (Atlántico), Colombia
  • 4Laboratory of Engineering and Coastal Processes – LIPC, Engineering Institute. Universidad Autónoma de México (UNAM). Sisal (Yucatán), México

Abstract. The main object of the present work was to study the role of morphodynamic changes in the flooding of a dissipative beach with microtidal regime, considering the simultaneous and individual effects of erosion and flooding in scenarios of long-term mean sea level rise. For this analysis, we selected a sector of the Colombian Caribbean coast with great touristic, historical, economic, cultural and social importance, namely, Cartagena de Indias; specifically, the beach of Bocagrande. By simultaneously considering erosion and flood processes associated with highly energetic waves, the study facilitates the construction of more precise models for assessing threats to coastal zones. SWAN and XBeach nested models were carried out in order to predict morphological changes and flooding during selected cold fronts and hurricanes that affected Cartagena de Indias; those numerical models were calibrated using field campaigns data (pre- and post-storm). The results of this research indicate that flooding on microtidal dissipative beaches under extreme wave conditions should be approached by considering morphodynamics, because ignoring them can underestimate flooding by ~15%. The erosion and flood effects are intensified by sea level rise, resulting in the most unfavorable condition when extreme events are contemporaneous with high tides.

Jairo E. Cueto Fonseca et al.

Status: open (until 30 Aug 2021)

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Jairo E. Cueto Fonseca et al.

Jairo E. Cueto Fonseca et al.

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Short summary
The article mainly describes the importance of morphological changes on flooding estimation during storms with sea level rise conditions. XBeach and SWAN were the numerical models used to test several case studies of past storms in Cartagena (Colombia). The results indicate that flooding under extreme wave conditions should be approached by considering morphodynamics, ignoring them can underestimate flooding effects. The erosion and flood consequences are intensified by SLR.
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