02 Jul 2021
02 Jul 2021
Status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Multi-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic models

Qinke Sun1,2, Jiayi Fang1,2, Xuewei Dang3, Kepeng Xu1,2, Yongqiang Fang1,2, Xia Li1,2, and Min Liu1,2 Qinke Sun et al.
  • 1School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
  • 2Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
  • 3Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China

Abstract. Urbanization and climate change are the critical challenges in the 21st century. Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in fast-urbanizing areas. However, high uncertainty in climate change and future urban growth limit the ability of cities to adapt to flood risk. This study presents a multi-scenario risk assessment method that couples the future land use simulation model (FLUS) and floodplain inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate and evaluate the impacts of future urban growth scenarios with flooding under climate change (two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5)). By taking Shanghai coastal city as an example, we then quantify the role of urban planning policies in future urban development to compare urban development under multiple policy scenarios (Business as usual, BU; Growth as planned, GP; Growth as eco-constraints, GE). Geospatial databases related to anthropogenic flood protection facilities, land subsidence, and storm surge are developed and used as inputs to the LISFLOOD-FP model to estimate flood risk under various urbanization and climate change scenarios. The results show that urban growth under the three scenario models manifests significant differences in expansion trajectories, influenced by key factors such as infrastructure development and policy constraints. Comparing the urban inundation results for the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the urban inundation area under the GE scenario is less than that under the BU scenario, but more than that under the GP scenario. We also find that urban will tend to expand to areas vulnerable to floods under the restriction of ecological environment protection. The increasing flood risk information determined by the coupling model helps to understand the spatial distribution of future flood-prone urban areas and promote the re-formulation of urban planning in high-risk locations.

Qinke Sun et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-200', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Aug 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Qinke Sun, 09 Oct 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2021-200', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Sep 2021
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Qinke Sun, 09 Oct 2021

Qinke Sun et al.


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Short summary
Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision-makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.