Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-121
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-121

  23 Apr 2021

23 Apr 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Are climate models that allow better approximations of local meteorology better for the assessment of hydrological impacts? A statistical analysis of droughts

Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara1, David Pulido-Velazquez1, Juan-de-Dios Gómez-Gómez2, and Eulogio Pardo-Igúzquiza3 Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara et al.
  • 1Spanish Geological Survey (IGME), Urb. Alcázar del Genil, 4. Edificio Zulema, Bajo, 18006 Granada, Spain
  • 2Spanish Geological Survey (IGME), La Calera, 1, 28760 Tres Cantos, Spain
  • 3Spanish Geological Survey (IGME), Ríos Rosas, 23, 28003 Madrid, Spain

Abstract. This work studies the benefit of using more reliable local climate scenarios to analyse hydrological impacts. It assumes that more reliable local scenarios are defined with the statistically corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations when they provide better approximations to the historical basic and drought statistics. The paper analyses if the best solutions in terms of their approximation to the local meteorology also provide the best hydrological assessments. A classification of the corrected RCM simulations attending to both approximations is performed. It has been applied in the Cenajo Basin (southeast Spain), where we demonstrate that the best approximations of the historical meteorological statistics provide also the best approximations of the hydrology ones. The selected RCMs were used to generate future (2071–2100) local scenarios under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario. The two selected RCMs predict significant changes of mean precipitation (−31.6 and −44.0 %) and mean temperature (+26.0 and +32.2 %). They also predict higher frequency (from 5 events in the historical period to 20 and 22 in the future), length (4.8 to 7.4 and 10.5 months), magnitude (2.53 to 6.56 and 9.62 SPI) and intensity (0.48 to 1.00 and 0.94 SPI) of extreme meteorological droughts.

Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara et al.

Status: open (until 04 Jun 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara et al.

Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara et al.

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Short summary
This work studies the benefit of using more reliable local climate scenarios to analyse hydrological impacts. It has been applied in the Cenajo Basin (southeast Spain), where we demonstrate that the best approximations of the historical meteorological statistics provide also the best approximations of the hydrology ones. The two selected climate models predict higher frequency, length, magnitude and intensity of extreme meteorological droughts.
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