Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-114
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-114

  21 Apr 2021

21 Apr 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Stochastic System Dynamics Modelling for climate change water scarcity assessment on a reservoir in the Italian Alps

Stefano Terzi1,2,3, Janez Sušnik4, Stefan Schneiderbauer1,3,5, Silvia Torresan2,6, and Andrea Critto2,6 Stefano Terzi et al.
  • 1Eurac Research, Institute for Earth Observation, Viale Druso 1, 39100, Bolzano, Italy
  • 2Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Via Torino 155, I-30172 Venezia-Mestre, Venice, Italy
  • 3United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, Germany
  • 4Land and Water Management Department, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, 2601DA, Delft, Netherlands
  • 5University of the Free State, Department of Geography, Bloemfontein, South Africa
  • 6Fondazione Centro-Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, I-73100, Lecce, Italy

Abstract. Water management in mountain regions is facing multiple pressures due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. This is particularly relevant for mountain areas where water abundance in the past allowed for many anthropogenic activities, exposing them to future water scarcity. To better understand the processes involved in water scarcity impact, an innovative stochastic System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) explores water stored and turbined in the S.Giustina reservoir (Province of Trento, Italy). The integration of outputs from climate change simulations as well as from a hydrological model and statistical models into the SDM is a quick and effective tool to simulate past and future water availability and demand conditions. Short-term RCP4.5 simulations depict conditions of highest volume and outflow reductions starting in spring (−16.1 % and −44.7 % in May compared to the baseline). Long-term RCP8.5 simulations suggest conditions of volume and outflow reductions starting in summer and lasting until the end of the year. The number of events with stored water below the 30th and above the 80th quantiles suggest a general reduction both in terms of low and high volumes. These results call for the need to adapt to acute short-term water availability reductions in spring and summer while preparing for hydroelectric production reductions due to the chronic long-term trends affecting autumn and mid-winter. This study provides results and methodological insights for potential SDM upscaling across strategic mountain socio-economic sectors (e.g., hydropower, agriculture and tourism) to expand water scarcity assessments and prepare for future multi-risk conditions and impacts.

Stefano Terzi et al.

Status: open (until 02 Jun 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Stefano Terzi et al.

Stefano Terzi et al.

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Short summary
This study combines outputs from multiple models with statistical assessments of past and future water availability and demand for the S.Giustina reservoir (Province of Trento, Italy). Considering future climate change scenarios, results show high reductions for both water stored and used for hydropower production, especially in spring and summer. These results call for the need to adapt to reductions in water availability and hence on the hydroelectric production from the S.Giustina reservoir.
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