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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-99
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-99
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  11 May 2020

11 May 2020

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A revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal NHESS and is expected to appear here in due course.

Probabilistic characterisation of coastal storm-induced risks using Bayesian Networks

Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez
  • Laboratori d’Enginyeria Marítima, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech, c/Jordi Girona 1-3, Campus Nord ed D1, 08034 Barcelona, Spain

Abstract. Coastal areas are often affected by inundation and erosion storm-induced risks. Detailed local risk assessments usually propagate a source (storm) through a pathway (coastal morphology) to characterise hazards (i.e. erosion and inundation) at the receptors and assess corresponding consequences. A probabilistic estimation of hazards based on the coastal response requires assessing large amounts of source characteristics. In addition, the coast is a dynamic environment, and factors such as climate change projections or existing background erosion trends require performing risk analyses under different scenarios. This work applies Bayesian Networks (BNs) following the source-pathway-receptor-consequences scheme aiming to perform a probabilistic risk characterisation at the Tordera Delta (NE Spain). The BNs allow an efficient assessment of results from a large number of storms (179) and their simulated consequences at the receptor scale (~ 4000 receptors). Presented results highlight the storm characteristics with higher probabilities to induce given risk levels for inundation and erosion, and how these are expected to change under given scenarios of shoreline retreat due to background erosion. The BNs also output probabilistic distributions of the different risk levels conditioned to given distances to the beach inner limit, allowing for the definition of probabilistic setbacks.

Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez

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Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez

Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez

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