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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-86
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-86
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  23 Apr 2020

23 Apr 2020

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A revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal NHESS and is expected to appear here in due course.

Measuring the seismic risk along the Nazca-Southamerican subduction front: Shannon entropy and mutability

Eugenio E. Vogel1,2, Felipe G. Brevis1, Denisse Pastén3,4, Víctor Muñoz3, Rodrigo A. Miranda5,6, and Abraham C.-L. Chian7,8 Eugenio E. Vogel et al.
  • 1Departamento de Física, Universidad de La Frontera, Casilla 54-D, Temuco, Chile
  • 2Center for the Development of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology (CEDENNA), 9170124 Santiago, Chile
  • 3Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
  • 4Advanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC), Santiago, Chile
  • 5UnB-Gama Campus, University of Brasilia, Brasilia DF 70910-900, Brazil
  • 6Plasma Physics Laboratory, Institute of Physics, University of Brasilia, Brasilia DF 70910-900, Brazil
  • 7University of Adelaide, School of Mathematical Sciences, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
  • 8National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos-SP 12227-010, Brazil

Abstract. Four geographical zones are defined along the trench that is formed due to the subduction of the Nazca Plate underneath the South American plate; they are denoted A, B, C and D from North to South; zones A, B, and D had a major earthquake after 2010 (Magnitude over 8.0), while zone C has not, thus offering a contrast for comparison. For each zone a sequence of intervals between consecutive seisms with magnitudes ≥ 3.0 is set up and then characterized by Shannon entropy and mutability. These methods show correlation after a major earthquake in what is known as the aftershock regime, but show independence otherwise. Exponential adjustments for these parameters reveal that mutability offers a wider range for the parameters characterizing the recovery compared to the values of the parameters defining the background activity for each zone before a large earthquake. It is found that the background activity is particularly high for zone A, still recovering for zone B, reaching values similar to those of zone A in the case of zone C (without recent major earthquake) and oscillating around moderate values for zone D. It is discussed how this can be an indication for more risk for an important future seism in the cases of zones A and C. The similarities and differences between Shannon entropy and mutability are discussed and explained.

Eugenio E. Vogel et al.

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Eugenio E. Vogel et al.

Eugenio E. Vogel et al.

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Short summary
Among the subduction fronts in the World the Nazca-South American is one of the most active. We have chosen four zones along this front to do a comparative study on possible different dynamics. Data are public and well tested in the last decades. The methods are original since mutability and Shannon entropy are not always used in this kind of problems and, to our knowledge, this is the first time they are combined. The North of Chile could be the zone with more chances for a large earthquake.
Among the subduction fronts in the World the Nazca-South American is one of the most active. We...
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