Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-422
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-422

  05 Feb 2021

05 Feb 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Flood and drought risk assessment for agricultural areas (Tagus Estuary, Portugal)

Paula Freire1, Marta Rodrigues1, André B. Fortunato1, and Alberto Freitas2 Paula Freire et al.
  • 1Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil, Lisboa, 1700-066, Portugal
  • 2Direção Geral de Agricultura e Desenvolvimento Rural, Lisboa, 1949-002, Portugal

Abstract. Estuaries are coastal systems particularly vulnerable to climate change effects and within these systems, agriculture is one of the most potentially affected sectors. This paper proposes a risk assessment approach for helping the decision-making process at a local level, addressing two risks that affect agricultural areas located in estuarine margins: the unavailability of fresh water for irrigation resulting from the upstream propagation of estuarine brackish water during droughts, and land inundation by high water levels associated with high tides and storm surges. For each risk, quantitative consequence descriptors are presented to support risk level determination and evaluation through a continuous consequence/probability diagram. The approach applicability is discussed through its application to the Lezíria Grande de Vila Franca de Xira, located in the Tagus Estuary (Portugal). Results indicate that the approach is appropriate to support risk owners in taking actions to mitigate the risk. The flexibility of the approach to be adapted to local conditions and updated through time, and the ease of its application by the risk owner can be pointed out as the main strengths.

Paula Freire et al.

Status: open (until 02 Apr 2021)

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Paula Freire et al.

Paula Freire et al.

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Short summary
This paper presents a risk assessment approach to support the decision-making process at a local level, addressing the two main risks that affect agricultural areas located in estuaries: the unavailability of fresh water for irrigation resulting from the upstream propagation of brackish water during droughts, and land inundation by high water levels associated with high tides and storm surges.
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