Flood and drought risk assessment for agricultural areas (Tagus Estuary, Portugal)

Abstract. Estuaries are coastal systems particularly vulnerable to climate change effects and within these systems, agriculture is one of the most potentially affected sectors. This paper proposes a risk assessment approach for helping the decision-making process at a local level, addressing two risks that affect agricultural areas located in estuarine margins: the unavailability of fresh water for irrigation resulting from the upstream propagation of estuarine brackish water during droughts, and land inundation by high water levels associated with high tides and storm surges. For each risk, quantitative consequence descriptors are presented to support risk level determination and evaluation through a continuous consequence/probability diagram. The approach applicability is discussed through its application to the Lezíria Grande de Vila Franca de Xira, located in the Tagus Estuary (Portugal). Results indicate that the approach is appropriate to support risk owners in taking actions to mitigate the risk. The flexibility of the approach to be adapted to local conditions and updated through time, and the ease of its application by the risk owner can be pointed out as the main strengths.