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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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We applied a high-resolution, gridded atmospheric dataset combined with landslide inventories to investigate the role of snowmelt in landslide triggering, define thresholds of atmospheric triggers, and characterize climatic disposition of landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Our results indicate the crucial role of snowmelt in landslide triggering and prediction in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and the added value of climatic disposition derived from atmospheric triggering conditions.
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-418
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-418

  06 Jan 2021

06 Jan 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Atmospheric triggering conditions and climatic disposition of landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan at the beginning of the 21st century

Xun Wang, Marco Otto, and Dieter Scherer Xun Wang et al.
  • Chair of Climatology, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, 12165, Germany

Abstract. Landslide is a major natural hazard in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Knowledge about atmospheric triggering conditions and climatic disposition of landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is limited, even though this topic has already been investigated thoroughly in other parts of the world. In this study, the newly developed, high-resolution High Asia Refined Analysis version 2 (HAR v2) data set generated by dynamical downscaling was combined with historical landslide inventories to analyze atmospheric conditions that initialized landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The results indicate the crucial role of snowmelt in landslide triggering processes since it contributes to the initialization of 40 % of landslide events. Objective thresholds for rainfall, snowmelt, as well as the sum of rainfall and snowmelt (rainfall + snowmelt) were defined. Peak intensity (Imax) and accumulated amount (Q) of rainfall + snowmelt events yield the best predictive performance. Mean annual exceedance maps were derived from regional thresholds of Imax = 12.8 mm d−1 and Q = 17.2 mm for rainfall + snowmelt. Mean annual exceedance maps depict climatic disposition and have added value in landslide susceptibility mapping. The results reported in this study highlight the potential of dynamical downscaling products generated by regional climate models in landslide prediction.

Xun Wang et al.

Status: open (until 17 Feb 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Xun Wang et al.

Xun Wang et al.

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Short summary
We applied a high-resolution, gridded atmospheric dataset combined with landslide inventories to investigate the role of snowmelt in landslide triggering, define thresholds of atmospheric triggers, and characterize climatic disposition of landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Our results indicate the crucial role of snowmelt in landslide triggering and prediction in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and the added value of climatic disposition derived from atmospheric triggering conditions.
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