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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air pressure and sea level observations, developed in order to help coastal communities to prepare for extreme events. The system would have triggered the warnings for most of the observed events, but also setting off some false alarms if it was operational during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020 in eastern Adriatic. Further development of the system is planned.
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-409
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-409

  05 Jan 2021

05 Jan 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Performance of the Adriatic early warning system during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020: an assessment using energy banners

Iva Tojčić1, Cléa Denamiel1,2, and Ivica Vilibić1 Iva Tojčić et al.
  • 1Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Šetalište I. Meštrovića 63, 21000 Split, Croatia
  • 2Ruđer Bošković Institute, Division for Marine and Environmental Research, Bijenička cesta 54, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia

Abstract. This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air pressure and sea level observations, a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean modelling suite and a stochastic surrogate model. The CMeEWS, which is not operational due to a lack of numerical resources, is used retroactively to reproduce the multiple events observed in the eastern Adriatic between the 11th and 19th of May 2020. It is found that deterministic simulations largely fail to forecast these extreme events at endangered locations along the Croatian cost mostly due to a systematic northwestward shift of the atmospheric disturbances. Additionally, the use of combined ocean and atmospheric model results, instead of atmospheric model results only, is not found to improve the selection of the transects used to extract the atmospheric parameters feeding the stochastic meteotsunami surrogate model. Finally, in operational mode, the stochastic surrogate model would have triggered the warnings for most of the observed events, but also setting off some false alarms. Due to the uncertainties associated with operational modelling of meteotsunamigenic disturbances, the stochastic approach has thus proven to overcome the failures of the deterministic forecasts and should be further developed.

Iva Tojčić et al.

Status: open (until 16 Feb 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Iva Tojčić et al.

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Performance of the Adriatic early warning system during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11-19 May 2020: an assessment using energy banners Iva Tojčić https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/24M8E

Iva Tojčić et al.

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Short summary
This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air pressure and sea level observations, developed in order to help coastal communities to prepare for extreme events. The system would have triggered the warnings for most of the observed events, but also setting off some false alarms if it was operational during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020 in eastern Adriatic. Further development of the system is planned.
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