Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-382
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-382

  21 Nov 2020

21 Nov 2020

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador Volcanic Complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe Volcanic Complex (Nicaragua)

Andrea Bevilacqua1, Alvaro Aravena2,3, Augusto Neri1, Eduardo Gutiérrez4,, Demetrio Escobar4, Melida Schliz5, Alessandro Aiuppa6, and Raffaello Cioni2 Andrea Bevilacqua et al.
  • 1Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
  • 2Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Firenze, Firenze, Italy
  • 3Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Université Clermont Auvergne, Clermont-Ferrand, France
  • 4Dirección del Observatorio Ambiental, MARN, San Salvador, El Salvador
  • 5Instituto de Geología y Geofísica, UNAN, Managua, Nicaragua
  • 6Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università di Palermo, Palermo, Italy
  • deceased

Abstract. San Salvador Volcanic Complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe Volcanic Complex (Nicaragua) have been characterized by a significant variability in eruption style and vent location. Densely inhabited cities are in their surroundings, including the metropolitan areas of San Salvador (~2.4 M people) and Managua (~1.4 M people), respectively. In this study we present novel vent opening probability maps for these volcanic complexes, which are based on a multi-model approach that relies on kernel density estimators. Our volcanological dataset includes: (1) the location of past vents, (2) the mapping of the main fault structures, and (3) the eruption styles of past events, obtained from the critical analysis of literature and/or inferred from volcanic deposits and morphological features observed remotely and in the field. In particular, we present thematic vent opening maps, i.e. we consider different hazardous phenomena separately, including lava emission, small-scale pyroclastic density currents, ejection of ballistic projectiles, and low-intensity pyroclastic fallout. To illustrate the effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents derived from phreatomagmatic activity or from low-intensity magmatic volcanism. For the numerical simulation of these phenomena we adopted the recently developed branching energy cone model by using the program ECMapProb. Our results show that the implementation of thematic maps of vent opening can produce significantly different hazard levels from those estimated with traditional, non-thematic, maps.

Andrea Bevilacqua et al.

 
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Andrea Bevilacqua et al.

Model code and software

ECMapProb Alvaro Aravena https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3755086

Andrea Bevilacqua et al.

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Short summary
We present novel probability maps for the opening position of new vents in the volcanic complexes San Salvador (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe (Nicaragua). In particular, we present thematic maps, i.e. we consider different hazardous phenomena separately. To illustrate the significant effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents using and approach based on numerical modeling.
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