The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty

Umgiesser, Georg; Bajo, Marco; Ferrarin, Christian; Cucco, Andrea; Lionello, Piero; Zanchettin, Davide; Papa, Alvise; Tosoni, Alessandro; Ferla, Maurizio; Coraci, Elisa; Morucci, Sara; Crosato, Franco; Bonometto, Andrea; Valentini, Andrea; Orlic, Mirko; Haigh, Ivan D.; Nielsen, Jacob Woge; Bertin, Xavier; Fortunato, André Bustorff; Pérez Gómez, Begoña; Alvarez Fanjul, Enrique; Paradis, Denis; Jourdan, Didier; Pasquet, Audrey; Mourre, Baptiste; Tintoré, Joaquín; Nicholls, Robert J.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-361

Georg Umgiesser^1,2, Marco Bajo¹, Christian Ferrarin¹, Andrea Cucco³, Piero Lionello⁴, Davide Zanchettin⁵, Alvise Papa⁶, Alessandro Tosoni⁶, Maurizio Ferla⁷, Elisa Coraci⁷, Sara Morucci⁷, Franco Crosato⁷, Andrea Bonometto⁷, Andrea Valentini⁸, Mirko Orlic⁹, Ivan D. Haigh¹⁰, Jacob Woge Nielsen¹¹, Xavier Bertin¹², André Bustorff Fortunato¹³, Begoña Pérez Gómez¹⁴, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul¹⁴, Denis Paradis¹⁵, Didier Jourdan¹⁶, Audrey Pasquet¹⁶, Baptiste Mourre¹⁷, Joaquín Tintoré¹⁷, and Robert J. Nicholls¹⁸ Georg Umgiesser et al.

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¹ISMAR-CNR, Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice, Italy
²Marine Research Institute, Klaipeda University, Klaipeda, Lithuania
³CNR—IAS, National Research Council, Institute for the study of Anthropic impacts and Sustainability in the marine environment, Oristano, Italy
⁴DiSTeBA - University of Salento and CMCC, Lecce, Italy
⁵Ca' Foscari, University of Venice, Venice, Italy
⁶CPSM, Centro Previsione e Segnalazione Maree - Protezione Civile, Venice, Italy
⁷ISPRA, Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, Venezia, Italy
⁸Arpae-SIMC – Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, Hydro-Meteo-Climate Service, Bologna, Italy
⁹Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Croatia
¹⁰School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, UK
¹¹DMI – Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
¹²UMR 7266 LIENSs, CNRS-La Rochelle University, 2 rue Olympe de Gouges, 17000 La Rochelle, France
¹³Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil, Lisbon, Portugal
¹⁴Puertos del Estado, Madrid, Spain
¹⁵Direction des Opérations pour la Prévision, Département Marine et Océanographie, Météo-France, Toulouse, France
¹⁶Shom (Service hydrographique et océanographique de la Marine), Toulouse, France
¹⁷SOCIB, Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System, Mallorca, Spain
¹⁸Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia. Norwich, UK

¹ISMAR-CNR, Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice, Italy
²Marine Research Institute, Klaipeda University, Klaipeda, Lithuania
³CNR—IAS, National Research Council, Institute for the study of Anthropic impacts and Sustainability in the marine environment, Oristano, Italy
⁴DiSTeBA - University of Salento and CMCC, Lecce, Italy
⁵Ca' Foscari, University of Venice, Venice, Italy
⁶CPSM, Centro Previsione e Segnalazione Maree - Protezione Civile, Venice, Italy
⁷ISPRA, Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, Venezia, Italy
⁸Arpae-SIMC – Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, Hydro-Meteo-Climate Service, Bologna, Italy
⁹Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Croatia
¹⁰School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, UK
¹¹DMI – Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
¹²UMR 7266 LIENSs, CNRS-La Rochelle University, 2 rue Olympe de Gouges, 17000 La Rochelle, France
¹³Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil, Lisbon, Portugal
¹⁴Puertos del Estado, Madrid, Spain
¹⁵Direction des Opérations pour la Prévision, Département Marine et Océanographie, Météo-France, Toulouse, France
¹⁶Shom (Service hydrographique et océanographique de la Marine), Toulouse, France
¹⁷SOCIB, Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System, Mallorca, Spain
¹⁸Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia. Norwich, UK

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Received: 29 Oct 2020 – Accepted for review: 10 Nov 2020 – Discussion started: 17 Nov 2020

Abstract. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in storm surge forecasting and its particular application in the northern Adriatic Sea. The city of Venice relies crucially on a good flood forecasting system in order to protect the extensive cultural heritage, their population, and their economic activities. Storm surge forecasting systems are in place to warn the population of imminent flood threats. In the future, it will be of paramount importance to increase the reliability of these forecasting systems, especially with the new MOSE mobile barriers that will be completed by 2021, and will depend on accurate storm surge forecasting to control their operation. In this paper, the physics behind the flooding of Venice is discussed, and the state of the art of European storm surge forecasting is reviewed. The challenges that lie ahead for Venice and its forecasting systems are analyzed, especially in view of uncertainty. Some extreme events that happened in the past and were particularly difficult to forecast are also described.

How to cite. Umgiesser, G., Bajo, M., Ferrarin, C., Cucco, A., Lionello, P., Zanchettin, D., Papa, A., Tosoni, A., Ferla, M., Coraci, E., Morucci, S., Crosato, F., Bonometto, A., Valentini, A., Orlic, M., Haigh, I. D., Nielsen, J. W., Bertin, X., Fortunato, A. B., Pérez Gómez, B., Alvarez Fanjul, E., Paradis, D., Jourdan, D., Pasquet, A., Mourre, B., Tintoré, J., and Nicholls, R. J.: The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-361, in review, 2020.


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The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty

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