30 Oct 2020

30 Oct 2020

Review status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Towards an efficient storm surge and inundation forecasting system over the Bengal delta: Chasing the super-cyclone Amphan

Md Jamal Uddin Khan1, Fabien Durand1,2, Xavier Bertin3, Laurent Testut1,3, Yann Krien3, A. K. M. Saiful Islam4, Marc Pezerat3, and Sazzad Hossain5,6 Md Jamal Uddin Khan et al.
  • 1LEGOS UMR5566, CNRS/CNES/IRD/UPS, 31400 Toulouse, France
  • 2Laboratório de Geoquímica, Instituto de Geociencias, Universidade de Brasilia, Brazil
  • 3UMR 7266 LIENSs, CNRS- La Rochelle University, 17000 La Rochelle, France
  • 4IWFM, BUET, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
  • 5Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre, BWDB, Dhaka, Bangladesh
  • 6Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, UK

Abstract. The Bay of Bengal is a well-known breeding ground to some of the deadliest cyclones in history. Despite recent advancements, the complex morphology and hydrodynamics of this large delta and the associated modelling computational costs impede the storm surge forecasting in this highly vulnerable region. Here we present a proof of concept of a physically consistent and computationally efficient storm surge forecasting system tractable in real-time with limited resources. With a state-of-the-art wave-coupled hydrodynamic numerical modelling system, we forecast the recent super cyclone Amphan in real-time. From the available observations, we assessed the quality of our modelling framework. We affirmed the evidence of the key ingredients needed for an efficient, real-time surge and inundation forecast along this active and complex coastal region. This article shows the proof of the maturity of our framework for operational implementation, which can particularly improve the quality of localized forecast for effective decision-making.

Md Jamal Uddin Khan et al.

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Status: final response (author comments only)
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Md Jamal Uddin Khan et al.

Data sets

Digitized flood location dataset during cyclone Amphan from newspaper survey Md Jamal Uddin Khan

Md Jamal Uddin Khan et al.


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Short summary
The Bay of Bengal is well-known for some of the deadliest cyclones in history. At the same time, storm surge forecasting in this region is physically involved, and computationally costly. Here we show a proof-of-concept of a real-time, computationally-efficient, and physically-consistent forecasting system with an application to a recent super cyclone Amphan. While challenges remain, our study paves the path forward to the improvement of the quality of localized forecast and disaster management.