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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-250
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-250
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  25 Aug 2020

25 Aug 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Simulating Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Tracks for Statistically Reliable Wind and Pressure Estimations

Kees Nederhoff1, Jasper Hoek2,3, Tim Leijnse2, Maarten van Ormondt2, Sofia Caires2, and Alessio Giardino2 Kees Nederhoff et al.
  • 1Deltares USA, 8601 Georgia Ave, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA
  • 2Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, Delft, 2629 HV, the Netherlands
  • 3Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, the Netherlands

Abstract. The design of coastal protection measures and the quantification of coastal risks at locations affected by tropical cyclone (TC) are often based solely on the analysis of historical cyclone tracks. Due to data scarcity and the random nature of TCs, the assumption that future TCs could hit a neighboring area with equal likelihood than past events can potentially lead to over- and/or underestimations of extremes and associated risks. The simulation of numerous synthetic TC tracks based on (historical) data can overcome this limitation. In this paper, a new method for the generation of synthetic TC tracks is proposed. The method has been implemented in the highly flexible open-source Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE). TCWiSE uses an Empirical Track Model based on Markov-chains and can simulate thousands of synthetic TC tracks and wind fields in any oceanic basin based on any (historical) data source. Moreover, the tool can be used to determine the wind extremes and the output can be used for the reliable assessment of coastal hazards. Validation results for the Gulf of Mexico show that TC patterns and extreme wind speeds are well reproduced by TCWiSE.

Kees Nederhoff et al.

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Kees Nederhoff et al.

Kees Nederhoff et al.

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