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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-207
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-207
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  07 Jul 2020

07 Jul 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Including informal housing in slope stability analysis – an application to a data-scarce location in the humid tropics

Elisa Bozzolan1,2, Elizabeth Holcombe1,2, Francesca Pianosi1,2, and Thorsten Wagener1,2 Elisa Bozzolan et al.
  • 1Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK
  • 2Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK

Abstract. Empirical evidence from the humid tropics shows that informal housing can increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides. However, informal housing is rarely accounted for in landslide hazard assessments at community or larger scales. We include informal housing influences (vegetation removal, slope cutting, house loading and point water sources) in a slope stability analysis. We extend the mechanistic model CHASM (Combined Hydrology and Stability Model) to include leaking pipes, septic tanks, and roof gutters. We test CHASM+ in a region of the humid tropics, using a stochastic framework to account for uncertainties related to model parameters and drivers (incl. climate change). We find slope cutting to be the most detrimental construction activity for slope stability. When informal housing is present, more failures (+85 %) are observed in slopes with low landslide susceptibility and for high intensity, short duration precipitations. As a result, the rainfall threshold for triggering landslides is lower when compared to non-urbanised slopes, and comparable to those found empirically for similar urbanised regions. Finally, low cost-effective low regrets mitigation actions are suggested to tackle the main landslide drivers identified in the study area.

Elisa Bozzolan et al.

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Short summary
We include informal housing in slope stability analysis, considering different slopes and precipitation events. Slope cutting results the most detrimentall construction activities and more landslides are recorded for short duration-high intensity rainfall events. The dominant failure processes are identified and sets of instability rules are provided to recognise slopes most at risk. The methodology is suitable for analysis with scarce availability of soil and rainfall data.
We include informal housing in slope stability analysis, considering different slopes and...
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