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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-169
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-169
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  08 Jun 2020

08 Jun 2020

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A revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal NHESS and is expected to appear here in due course.

Probabilistic tsunami inundation assessment of Kuroshio Town,Kochi Prefecture, Japan considering the Nankai-Tonankai megathrust rupture scenarios

Katsuichiro Goda1,2, Tomohiro Yasuda3, Nobuhito Mori4, Ario Muhammad5, Raffaele De Risi5, and Flavia De Luca5 Katsuichiro Goda et al.
  • 1Department of Earth Sciences, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada
  • 2Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada
  • 3Kansai University, Suita, Osaka, Japan
  • 4Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
  • 5Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK

Abstract. The Nankai-Tonankai megathrust earthquake and tsunami pose significant risks to coastal communities in western and central Japan. Historically, this seismic region hosted many major earthquakes, and the current national tsunami hazard assessments in Japan consider megathrust events having moment magnitudes between 9.0 and 9.1. In responding to the lack of rigorous uncertainty analysis, this study presents an extensive tsunami hazard assessment for the Nankai-Tonankai Trough events, focusing upon the southwestern Pacific region of Japan. A set of 1,000 kinematic earthquake rupture models is generated via stochastic source modelling approaches, and Monte Carlo tsunami simulations are carried out by considering high-resolution grid data of 10-m and coastal defense structures. Significant advantages of the stochastic tsunami simulation methods include the enhanced capabilities to quantify the uncertainty associated with tsunami hazard assessments and to effectively visualize the results in an integrated manner. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations can inform regional and local tsunami risk reduction actions in light of inevitable uncertainty associated with such probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments, and complement conventional deterministic tsunami scenarios and their hazard predictions, such as those developed by the Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese Cabinet Office.

Katsuichiro Goda et al.

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Katsuichiro Goda et al.

Katsuichiro Goda et al.

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Latest update: 23 Oct 2020
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Short summary
The Nankai-Tonankai megathrust earthquake and tsunami pose significant risks to coastal communities in western and central Japan. This study presents an extensive tsunami hazard assessment for the Nankai-Tonankai Trough events, focusing upon the southwestern Pacific region of Japan. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations can inform regional and local tsunami risk reduction actions in light of inevitable uncertainty associated with such probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments.
The Nankai-Tonankai megathrust earthquake and tsunami pose significant risks to coastal...
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