23 Mar 2020
23 Mar 2020
Space-time clustering of climate extremes amplify global climate impacts, leading to fat-tailed risk
- 1Columbia Water Center, New York, United States
- 2Earth and Environmental Engineering Department, Columbia University, New York, United States
- 3Beyond Ratings, London Stock Exchange Group, Paris, France
- 1Columbia Water Center, New York, United States
- 2Earth and Environmental Engineering Department, Columbia University, New York, United States
- 3Beyond Ratings, London Stock Exchange Group, Paris, France
Abstract. We present evidence that the global juxtaposition of major assets relevant to the economy with the space and time expression of extreme floods or droughts leads to a much higher aggregate risk than would be expected by chance. Using a century long, globally gridded time series that indexes net water availability, we compute local occurrences of an extreme dry
or wet
condition for a specified duration and return period, every year. A global exposure index is then derived for major mining commodities, by weighting extreme event occurrence by local production exposed. We note significant spatial and temporal clustering of exposure leading to the potential for fat tail risk associated with investment portfolios and supply chains. The traditional approach of climate risk analysis only considers local or point extreme value analysis and hence does not account for this spatially and temporally clustered exposure. Consequently, the global economic implications of the past or future financial and social exposure are understated in current climate risk analyses.
- Preprint
(605 KB) -
Supplement
(920 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote
Luc Bonnafous and Upmanu Lall
-
RC1: 'Comments for the manuscript NHESS-2019-405 Space-time clustering of climate extremes amplify global climate impacts, leading to fat-tailed risk', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 May 2020
-
AC1: 'Response to Referee 1', Luc Bonnafous, 13 Oct 2020
-
AC1: 'Response to Referee 1', Luc Bonnafous, 13 Oct 2020
-
SC1: 'Comments on "Space-time clustering of climate extremes amplify global climate impacts, leading to fat-tailed risk"', Naresh Devineni, 20 May 2020
-
SC6: 'Space-time clustering of climate extremes amplify global climate impacts, leading to fat-tailed risk', Upmanu Lall, 09 Aug 2020
-
SC6: 'Space-time clustering of climate extremes amplify global climate impacts, leading to fat-tailed risk', Upmanu Lall, 09 Aug 2020
-
SC2: 'Magnitude of global extremes and supply chain impacts', Scott Steinschneider, 31 May 2020
-
SC5: 'Space-time clustering of climate extremes amplify global climate impacts, leading to fat-tailed risk', Upmanu Lall, 09 Aug 2020
-
SC5: 'Space-time clustering of climate extremes amplify global climate impacts, leading to fat-tailed risk', Upmanu Lall, 09 Aug 2020
-
SC3: 'some comments', Shaleen Jain, 27 Jun 2020
-
SC4: 'Space-time clustering of climate extremes amplify global climate impacts, leading to fat-tailed risk', Upmanu Lall, 09 Aug 2020
-
SC4: 'Space-time clustering of climate extremes amplify global climate impacts, leading to fat-tailed risk', Upmanu Lall, 09 Aug 2020
-
RC2: 'Referee comments', Anonymous Referee #2, 21 Sep 2020
-
AC2: 'Response to Referee 2', Luc Bonnafous, 13 Oct 2020
-
AC2: 'Response to Referee 2', Luc Bonnafous, 13 Oct 2020
Luc Bonnafous and Upmanu Lall
Luc Bonnafous and Upmanu Lall
Viewed
HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
313 | 117 | 13 | 443 | 40 | 14 | 18 |
- HTML: 313
- PDF: 117
- XML: 13
- Total: 443
- Supplement: 40
- BibTeX: 14
- EndNote: 18
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Country | # | Views | % |
---|
Total: | 0 |
HTML: | 0 |
PDF: | 0 |
XML: | 0 |
- 1