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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-311
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-311
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  30 Jan 2020

30 Jan 2020

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A revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Modelling landslide hazard under global change: the case of a Pyrenean valley

Séverine Bernardie1, Rosalie Vandromme1, Yannick Thiery1, Thomas Houet2, Marine Grémont1, Florian Masson1, Gilles Grandjean1, and Isabelle Bouroullec3 Séverine Bernardie et al.
  • 1BRGM, 3 avenue Claude Guillemin 45060 Orléans, France
  • 2LETG-Rennes UMR 6554 CNRS, Place du Recteur Henri Le Moal, 35043 Rennes CEDEX
  • 3BRGM, 31000 Toulouse, France

Abstract. Several studies have shown that global changes have important impacts in mountainous areas, since they affect natural hazards induced by hydro-meteorological events such as landslides.

To estimate the capacity of mountainous valleys to cope with landslide hazard under global change (climate change as well as climate- and human-induced land use change), it is necessary to evaluate the evolution of the different components that define this type of hazard: topography, geology and geotechnics, hydrogeology and land cover. The present study evaluates, through an innovative methodology, the influence of both vegetation cover and climate change on landslide hazard in a Pyrenean valley from the present to 2100.

Once the invariant features of the studied area, such as geology and topography, were set, we first focused on assessing future land use changes through the construction of four prospective socioeconomic scenarios and their projection to 2040 and 2100. These inputs were then used to spatially model land use and land cover (LUCC) information to produce multi-temporal LUCC maps. Then, climate change inputs were used to extract the water saturation of the uppermost layers, according to two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The impacts of land use and climate change based on these scenarios were then used to modulate the hydro-mechanical model to compute the factor of safety (FoS) and the hazard levels over the considered area.

The results demonstrate the influence of land use on slope stability through the presence and type of forest. The resulting changes are significant despite being small and dependent on future land use linked to the socioeconomic scenarios. In particular, a reduction in human activity results in an increase in slope stability; in contrast, an increase in anthropic activity leads to an opposite evolution in the region, with some reduction in slope stability.<\p>

Climate change may also have a significant impact in some areas because of the increase in the soil water content; the results indicate a reduction in the FoS in a large part of the study area, depending on the landslide typology considered. Therefore, even if future forest growth leads to slope stabilization, the evolution of the groundwater conditions will lead to destabilization. These changes are not uniform over the area and are particularly significant under the most extreme climate scenario, RCP 8.5. Compared to the current period, the size of the area that is prone to deep landslides is higher in the future than the area prone to small landslides (both rotational and translational). On the other hand, the increase rate of areas prone to landslides is higher for the small landslide typology than for the deep landslide typology. Interestingly, the evolution of extreme events is related to the frequency of the highest water filling ratio. The results indicate that the occurrences of landslide hazards in the near future (2021–2050 period, scenario RCP 8.5) and far future (2071–2100 period, scenario RCP 8.5) are expected to increase by factors of 1.5 and 4, respectively.

Séverine Bernardie et al.

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Séverine Bernardie et al.

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Short summary
The present study evaluates the impacts of land use and climate change, based on scenarios, on landslide hazard in a Pyrenean valley from the present to 2100. The results demonstrate the influence of the presence and type of forest on slope stability, despite being small. Climate change may have a significant impact because of the increase of the soil water content, depending on the landslide typology considered.These changes are particularly significant under the most extreme climate scenario.
The present study evaluates the impacts of land use and climate change, based on scenarios, on...
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