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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">NHESSD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">NHESSD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2195-9269</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/nhess-2019-284</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Assessing potential storm tide inundation hazard under climate
change: a case study of Southeast China coast</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nie</surname>
<given-names>Bingchuan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5227-4631</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wuxi</surname>
<given-names>Qingyong</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Jiachun</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Xu</surname>
<given-names>Feng</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>School of Civil Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Beijing&apos;s Key Laboratory of Structural Wind Engineering and Urban Wind Environment, Beijing 100044, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Key Laboratory for Mechanics in Fluid Solid Coupling Systems, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>School of Engineering Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>09</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2019</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>22</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2019 Bingchuan Nie et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2019</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2019-284/">This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2019-284/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2019-284/nhess-2019-284.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2019-284/nhess-2019-284.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>&lt;p&gt;A methodology for assessing the storm tide inundation under TCI (tropical cyclone intensification) and SLR (sea level rise) is proposed, which integrates the trend analysis, numerical analysis and GIS-based analysis. In the trend analysis, the potential TCI and SLR can be estimated based on the long-term historical data of TC (tropical cyclone) and MSL (mean sea level) considering the non-stationary and spatially non-uniform effect; the numerical simulation is relied on the ADCIRC+SWAN model, which is  capable of taking into account the tide-surge-wave coupling effect to improve the precision of water elevation prediction; the water elevation is then analyzed on the GIS platform, the potential inundation regions can be identified. Based on this methodology, a case study for the Southeast China coast, one of the storm surge prone areas in China, is presented. The results show that the high water elevation tends to occur in the bays and around the estuaries, the maximal water elevations caused by the typhoon wind of 100-year recurrence period can reach as high as 6.06&amp;thinsp;m, 5.82&amp;thinsp;m and 5.67&amp;thinsp;m  around Aojiang, Feiyunjiang and Oujiang river estuaries, respectively. Non-stationary TCI and SLR due to climate change can further deteriorate the situation and enhance the risk of inundation there, i.e. the potential inundation area would expand by 108&amp;thinsp;% to about 798&amp;thinsp;km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; compared with the situation without considering TCI and SLR. In addition, the remotely sensed maps and inundation durations of the hardest hit regions are provided, which will aid the prevention and mitigation of storm tide inundation hazard and future coastal management there.&lt;/p&gt;</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>11902024</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source></funding-source>
<award-id>2017YFC1404202</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source></funding-source>
<award-id>XDB22040203</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
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