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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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We have developed a statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones (TCs), to undertake hazard and risk assessments at continental scales. The model enables users to build an understanding of the likelihood and magnitude of TC-related wind speeds across full ocean basins, but at a fine spatial resolution. The model can also be applied to single events, either scenarios or forecast events, to inform detailed impact assessments.
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-192
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-192

  15 Oct 2019

15 Oct 2019

Review status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

A statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessment

William C. Arthur William C. Arthur
  • Geoscience Australia, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia

Abstract. We present the formulation of an open-source, statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones (TCs) for use in hazard and risk assessment applications. The model derives statistical relations for TC behaviour (genesis rate and location, intensity, speed and direction of translation) from best-track datasets, then uses these relations to create a synthetic catalogue based on stochastic sampling, representing many thousands of years of activity. A parametric wind field, based on radial profiles and boundary layer models, is applied to each event in the catalogue that is then used to fit extreme value distributions for evaluation of return period wind speeds. We demonstrate the capability of the model to replicate observed behaviour of TCs, including coastal landfall rates which is of significant importance for risk assessments.

William C. Arthur

 
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Status: final response (author comments only)
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William C. Arthur

William C. Arthur

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Latest update: 15 Jan 2021
Publications Copernicus
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Short summary
We have developed a statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones (TCs), to undertake hazard and risk assessments at continental scales. The model enables users to build an understanding of the likelihood and magnitude of TC-related wind speeds across full ocean basins, but at a fine spatial resolution. The model can also be applied to single events, either scenarios or forecast events, to inform detailed impact assessments.
Citation
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