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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-158
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-158
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  24 May 2019

24 May 2019

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A revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal NHESS and is expected to appear here in due course.

Hazard maps with differentiated exceedance probability for flood impact assessment

Punit Kumar Bhola, Jorge Leandro, and Markus Disse Punit Kumar Bhola et al.
  • Chair of Hydrology and River Basin Management, Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Munich, Arcisstrasse 21 80333 Munich, Germany

Abstract. In operational flood risk management, a single best-model is used to assess the impact of flooding, which might misrepresent uncertainties in the modelling process. We have used quantified uncertainties in flood forecasting to generate flood hazards maps that were combined based on exceedance probability scenarios. The purpose is to differentiate the impact of flooding depending on the building use. The aim of the study is thus to develop a novel methodology that uses a multi-model combination of flood forecasting models to generate flood hazard maps with differentiated exceedance probability. These maps take into account uncertainties steaming from the rainfall-runoff generation process and could be used by decision-makers for a variety of purposes in which the building use plays a significant role, e.g. flood impact assessment, spatial planning, early warning and emergency planning.

Punit Kumar Bhola et al.

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Punit Kumar Bhola et al.

Punit Kumar Bhola et al.

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Short summary
In operational flood risk management, the best-model is used to assess the impact of flooding, which might misrepresent uncertainties in the modelling process. This study uses the quantified uncertainties in flood forecasting to generate flood hazards maps that were combined based on exceedance probability scenarios. The purpose is to differentiate the impact of flooding depending on the building use, which plays a significant role in flood impact assessment, spatial planning and early warning.
In operational flood risk management, the best-model is used to assess the impact of flooding,...
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