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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-403
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-403
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  27 Mar 2019

27 Mar 2019

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A revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Drought risk in the Bolivian Altiplano associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation using satellite imagery data

Claudia Canedo-Rosso1,2, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler3, Georg Pflug3,4, Bruno Condori5, and Ronny Berndtsson1,6 Claudia Canedo-Rosso et al.
  • 1Division of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, P.O. Box 118, SE-22100 Lund, Sweden
  • 2Instituto de Hidráulica e Hidrología, Universidad Mayor de San Andrés, Cotacota 30, La Paz, Bolivia
  • 3International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
  • 4Institute of Statistics and Operations Research, Faculty of Economics, University of Vienna, Oskar-Morgenstern- Platz 1, 1090 Wien, Austria
  • 5Instituto Nacional de Innovación Agropecuaria y Forestal (INIAF), Batallón Colorados 24, La Paz, Bolivia
  • 6Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Lund University, P.O. Box 201, SE-22100 Lund, Sweden

Abstract. Drought is a major natural hazard in the Bolivian Altiplano that causes large losses to farmers, especially during positive ENSO phases. However, empirical data for drought risk estimation purposes are scarce and spatially uneven distributed. Due to these limitations, similar to many other regions in the world, we tested the performance of satellite imagery data for providing precipitation and temperature data. The results show that droughts can be better predicted using a combination of satellite imagery and ground-based available data. Consequently, the satellite climate data were associated with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in order to evaluate the crop production variability. Moreover, NDVI was used to target specific drought hotspot regions. Furthermore, during positive ENSO phase (El Niño years), a significant decrease in crop yields can be expected and we indicate areas where losses will be most pronounced. The results can be used for emergency response operations and enable a pro-active approach to disaster risk management against droughts. This includes economic-related and risk reduction strategies such as insurance and irrigation.

Claudia Canedo-Rosso et al.

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Claudia Canedo-Rosso et al.

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Short summary
Drought is a major natural hazard in the Bolivian Altiplano that causes large losses to farmers. Here, precipitation and temperature were used to predict agricultural droughts. In addition, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to simulate quinoa and potato yield. And, the NDVI was used to target specific drought hotspot regions. A significant decrease of crop yields can be expected during positive ENSO phases. The study findings can be used for disaster risk management.
Drought is a major natural hazard in the Bolivian Altiplano that causes large losses to farmers....
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