<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">NHESSD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">NHESSD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2195-9269</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/nhess-2018-390</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Improvement of typhoon wind hazard model and its sensitivity analysis</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Guo</surname>
<given-names>Yunxia</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hou</surname>
<given-names>Yijun</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Qi</surname>
<given-names>Peng</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 7 Nanhai Road, 266071, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 19A Yuquan Road, 100049 China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 1 Wenhai Road, 266237, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 7 Nanhai Road, 266071, P. R. China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>25</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2019</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>24</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2019 Yunxia Guo et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2019</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2018-390/">This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2018-390/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2018-390/nhess-2018-390.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2018-390/nhess-2018-390.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>&lt;p&gt;Typhoons are one of the most serious natural disasters that occur annually on China’s southeast coast. This paper describes a technique for analyzing the typhoon wind hazard based on the empirical track model. Existing simplified and non-simplified typhoon empirical track models are improved, and the improved tracking models are shown to significantly increase the correlation in regression analysis. We also investigate quantitatively the sensitivity of the typhoon wind hazard model. The effects of different typhoon decay models, the simplified and non-simplified typhoon tracking models, different statistical models for the radius to maximum winds (&lt;i&gt;R&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;max&lt;/sub&gt;) and Holland pressure profile parameter (&lt;i&gt;B&lt;/i&gt;), and different extreme value distributions on the predicted extreme wind speed of different return periods are all investigated. Comparisons of estimated typhoon wind speeds for 50-year and 100-year return periods under the influence of different factors are presented. The different models of &lt;i&gt;R&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;max&lt;/sub&gt; and &lt;i&gt;B&lt;/i&gt; are found to have greatest impact on the prediction of extreme wind speed, followed by the extreme value distributions, typhoon tracking models, and typhoon decay models. This paper constitutes a useful reference for predicting extreme wind speed using the empirical track model.&lt;/p&gt;</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="24"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source></funding-source>
<award-id>2016YFC1402004</award-id>
<award-id>2016YFC1402000</award-id>
<award-id>2018YFC1407003</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
</back>
</article>