NHESSD Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions NHESSD Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 2195-9269 Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/nhessd-1-353-2013 Application of a hybrid model of neural networks and genetic algorithms to evaluate landslide susceptibility Wang H. B. 1 2 Li J. W. 1 Zhou B. 1 Yuan Z. Q. 1 Chen Y. P. 3 Institute of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan 430074, P. R. China Hubei Key Laboratory of Control Structure, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan 430074, P. R. China Wenhua College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan 430074, P. R. China 04 03 2013 1 2 353 388 Copyright: © 2013 H. B. Wang et al. 2013 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/1/353/2013/nhessd-1-353-2013.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/1/353/2013/nhessd-1-353-2013.pdf

In the last few decades, the development of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technology has provided a method for the evaluation of landslide susceptibility and hazard. Slope units were found to be appropriate for the fundamental morphological elements in landslide susceptibility evaluation. Following the DEM construction in a loess area susceptible to landslides, the direct-reverse DEM technology was employed to generate 216 slope units in the studied area. After a detailed investigation, the landslide inventory was mapped in which 39 landslides, including paleo-landslides, old landslides and recent landslides, were present. Of the 216 slope units, 123 involved landslides. To analyze the mechanism of these landslides, six environmental factors were selected to evaluate landslide occurrence: slope angle, aspect, the height and shape of the slope, distance to river and human activities. These factors were extracted in terms of the slope unit within the ArcGIS software. The spatial analysis demonstrates that most of the landslides are located on convex slopes at an elevation of 100–150 m with slope angles from 135°–225° and 40°–60°. Landslide occurrence was then checked according to these environmental factors using an artificial neural network with back propagation, optimized by genetic algorithms. A dataset of 120 slope units was chosen for training the neural network model, i.e., 80 units with landslide presence and 40 units without landslide presence. The parameters of genetic algorithms and neural networks were then set: population size of 100, crossover probability of 0.65, mutation probability of 0.01, momentum factor of 0.60, learning rate of 0.7, max learning number of 10 000, and target error of 0.000001. After training on the datasets, the susceptibility of landslides was mapped for the land-use plan and hazard mitigation. Comparing the susceptibility map with landslide inventory, it was noted that the prediction accuracy of landslide occurrence is 93.02%, whereas units without landslide occurrence are predicted with an accuracy of 81.13%. To sum up, the verification shows satisfactory agreement with an accuracy of 86.46% between the susceptibility map and the landslide locations. In the landslide susceptibility assessment, ten new slopes were predicted to show potential for failure, which can be confirmed by the engineering geological conditions of these slopes. It was also observed that some disadvantages could be overcome in the application of the neural networks with back propagation, for example, the low convergence rate and local minimum, after the network was optimized using genetic algorithms. To conclude, neural networks with back propagation that are optimized by genetic algorithms are an effective method to predict landslide susceptibility with high accuracy.

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