<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">NHESS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">NHESS</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1684-9981</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/nhess-9-789-2009</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Incorporating river morphological changes to flood risk assessment: uncertainties, methodology and application</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Neuhold</surname>
<given-names>C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Stanzel</surname>
<given-names>P.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nachtnebel</surname>
<given-names>H. P.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Water Management, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering – IWHW, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences – BOKU, Vienna, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>27</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2009</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>9</volume>
<issue>3</issue>
<fpage>789</fpage>
<lpage>799</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2009 C. Neuhold et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2009</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/9/789/2009/nhess-9-789-2009.html">This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/9/789/2009/nhess-9-789-2009.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/9/789/2009/nhess-9-789-2009.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/9/789/2009/nhess-9-789-2009.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Risk zonation maps are mostly derived from design floods which propagate
through the study area. The respective delineation of inundated flood plains
is a fundamental input for the flood risk assessment of exposed objects. It
is implicitly assumed that the river morphology will not vary, even though
it is obvious that the river bed elevation can quickly and drastically
change during flood events. The objectives of this study were to integrate
the river bed dynamics into the flood risk assessment procedure and to
quantify associated uncertainties. The proposed concept was applied to the
River Ill in the Western Austrian Alps. In total, 138 flood and associated
sediment transport scenarios were considered, simulated and illustrated for
the main river stem. The calculated morphological changes of the river bed
at the moment of peak flow provided a basis to estimate the variability of
possible water surface levels and inundation lines which should be
incorporated into flood hazard assessment. In the context of vulnerability
assessment an advanced methodological approach to assess flood risk based on
damage probability functions is described.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="11"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
<ref-list>
<title>References</title>
<ref id="ref1">
<label>1</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Apel, H., Merz, B., and Thieken, A. H.: Influence of Dike Breaches on Flood Frequency Estimation, Computers and Geosciences, 35/5, 907–923, 2009 </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref2">
<label>2</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Apel, H., Thieken, A. H., Merz, B., and Blöschl, G.: A probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks, Natural Hazards, 38(1–2), 79–100, 2006. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref3">
<label>3</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> BMFLUW (Bundesministerium für Forst- und Landwirtschaft, Umwelt und Wasserwirtschaft): Analyse der Hochwasserereignisse vom August 2002 – Flood RISK, WP Donau TP 05, Operative Maßnahmen Donau, 2004. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref4">
<label>4</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> BMFLUW: Richtlinien zur Gefahrenzonenausweisung für die Bundeswasserbauverwaltung, Fassung 2006, Wien, BMFLUW, 2006a. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref5">
<label>5</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> BMLFUW: Niederschlag-Abfluss-Modellierung; Arbeitsbehelf zur Parameterermittlung (in German), Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management, Vienna, 2006b. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref6">
<label>6</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Buck, W.: Auswertung der HOWAS-Datenbank: HY 98/15, Karlsruhe, Institut für Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik, Universität Karlsruhe, 1999. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref7">
<label>7</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> BUWAL: Risikoanalyse bei gravitativen Naturgefahren – Methode, Umwelt-Materialien Nr. 107/I, Naturgefahren: Bern, Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft, 1999a. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref8">
<label>8</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> BUWAL: Risikoanalyse bei gravitativen Naturgefahren – Fallbeispiele und Daten, Umwelt-Materialien Nr. 107/II, Naturgefahren: Bern, Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft, 1999b. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref9">
<label>9</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> BWG: Methode BWG Abschätzung des Schadenspotentials bei Überschwemmung und Übermurung, Arbeitshilfe 1.2, 2002. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref10">
<label>10</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Eberstaller, J.: Raumordnung und Hochwasserschutz am Beispiel der Traisen – Siedlungsentwicklung und Schadensanalyse, TP 02 – Naturgefahren BWV, in: Analyse der Hochwasserereignisse vom August 2002 – Flood Risk. Hrsg: BMLFUW, 2004. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref11">
<label>11</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Faber, R.: Flood Risk Analysis: Residual Risks and uncertainties in an Austrian context, Dissertation, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, 143~pp., 2006. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref12">
<label>12</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Ferson, S. and Ginzenburg, L. R.: Different methods are needed to propagate ignorance and variability, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 54, 133–144, 1996. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref13">
<label>13</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Fürst, J. and Hafner, N.: Land cover, in: Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management, Hydrological Atlas of Austria, 2nd Edition, Vienna, 2005. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref14">
<label>14</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Geiger, H., Röthlisberger, G., Stehli, A., and Zeller, J.: Extreme point rainfall of varying duration and return period, in: Swiss National Hydrological and Geological Survey 2004, Hydrological Atlas of Switzerland, Bern, 2004. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref15">
<label>15</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Haimes, Y. Y.: Risk modeling, assessment and management, Wiley Series in Systems Engineering, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 726~pp., 1998. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref16">
<label>16</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Hall, J. and Solomatine, D.: A framework for uncertainty analysis in flood risk management decisions, International Journal of River Basin Management, 6, 85–98, 2008. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref17">
<label>17</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Huang, J. V. and Greimann, B.: US Department of Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Technical Service Center, Sedimentation and River Hydraulics Group, User&apos;s Manual for GSTAR-1~D, 1–81, 2007. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref18">
<label>18</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> HYDROTEC: Hochwasser-Aktionsplan Sieg- Gemeinschaftsprojekt der Länder Nordrhein-Westfalen und Rheinland-Pfalz, Ministerium für Umwelt und Naturschutz, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz, http://www.stua-si.nrw.de/sieg/bericht/01.html, 2004. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref19">
<label>19</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Kaplan, S. and Garrick, B. J.: On the quantitative definition of risk, Risk Analysis, 1(1), 11–27, 1991. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref20">
<label>20</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Kling, H.: Development of tools for a semi-distributed runoff model, Master thesis, Institute of Water Management, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria, 2002. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref21">
<label>21</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Kraus, D.: Wirtschaftlichkeit und Priorisierung von Schutzmaßnahmen vor Wildbächen, Erosion und Lawinen: IAN Report 94: Workpackage (WP) Naturgefahren Wildbach- und Lawinenverbauung (WLV) Teilprojekt (TP) 03 in BMFLUW, 2004. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref22">
<label>22</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Kuikka, S. and Varis, O.: Uncertainties of climate change impacts in Finnish watersheds: a Bayesian network analysis of expert knowledge, Boreal Env. Res., 2, 109–128, 1997. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref23">
<label>23</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Larson, C. L. and Reich, B. M.: Relationship of observed rainfall and runoff recurrence intervals, in: Floods and Droughts, edited by: Schulz, E. F., Koelzer, V. A., and Mahmood, K., Water Resources Publications, Fort Collins, 34–43, 1972. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref24">
<label>24</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Lorenz, P. and Skoda, G.: Bemessungsniederschläge kurzer Dauerstufen ($D\le$12 Stunden) mit inadäquaten Daten (in German), Report of the hydrographical service in Austria, Nr 80, Vienna, 2000. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref25">
<label>25</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Thieken, A., and Schmidtke, R.: Estimation uncertainty of direct monetary flood damage to buildings, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 153–163, 2004. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref26">
<label>26</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Merz, B.: Hochwasserrisiken – Grenzen und Möglichkeiten der Risikoabschätzung, E. Schweizerbart&apos;sche Verlagsbuchhandlung (Näglele u. Obermiller), Stuttgart, 2006. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref27">
<label>27</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Messner, F., Penning-Rowsell, E., Green, C., Meyer, V., Tunsall, S., and van der Veen, A.: Evaluating flood damages: guidance and recommendations on principles and methods, report number T09-06-01, www.floodsite.net, 2007. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref28">
<label>28</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Meyer-Peter, E. and Müller, R.: &quot;Formula for bed-load transport&quot; Proc. of the Int. Assoc. for Hydraulic Research, 2nd Meeting, Stockholm, 1948. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref29">
<label>29</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Murphy, B. L.: Dealing with uncertainty in risk assessment, Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 4, 685–699, 1998. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref30">
<label>30</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Nachtnebel, H. P., Baumung, S., and Lettl, W.: Abflussprognosemodell für das Einzugsgebiet der Enns und Steyr (in German), Report, Institute of Water Management, Hydology and Hydraulic Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences Vienna, Austria, 1993. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref31">
<label>31</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Nachtnebel, H. P. and Debene, A.: Suspended sediment balance in runoff river reservoirs along the Austrian Danube. &quot;Schwebstoffbilanzierung im Bereich von Stauräumen an der österr. Donau&quot;, FloodRisk: Endbericht im Auftrag des Lebensministeriums, in: Habersack H., Bürgel J., and Petraschek A.: Analyse der Hochwasserereignisse vom August 2002 – Flood Risk, 2004, BMLFUW, Wien, Österreich, 2004. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref32">
<label>32</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Nachtnebel, H. P., Faber, R., and Leroch K.: Risikoanalyse des bestehenden Hochwasserschutzes Stadt Gleisdorf und Umgebung, River Basin Agenda, Wien, IWHW, BOKU, 2005. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref33">
<label>33</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Nachtnebel H. P. and Faber, R.: Assessment and management of flood risks in Austria, Structure and infrastructure Engineering: Maintenance, Management, Life-Cycle Design and Performance,5/4, 333–339, 2009. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref34">
<label>34</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Nachtnebel, H. P.: Cost-benefit evaluation of risk reduction options, Proceedings, European Symposium on Flood Risk Management Research (EFRM 2007), 6th–7th February 2007, Dresden, Germany, 2007. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref35">
<label>35</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Nachtnebel, H. P. and Neuhold, C.: Schutzwasserbauliche Bestandserhebung Ill – AP~5: Hydraulik/Geschiebe/Schwebstoffe, Amt der Vorarlberger Landesregierung, 164, 2008. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref36">
<label>36</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Nachtnebel, H. P. and Stanzel, P.: Schutzwasserbauliche Bestandserhebung Ill – AP~4: Hydrologi, Amt der Vorarlberger Landesregierung, 161 S, 2008. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref37">
<label>37</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River Flow Forecasting through Conceptual Models, J. Hydrology, 10/3, 282–290, 1970. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref38">
<label>38</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Neuhold, C. and Nachtnebel, H. P.: Detailed residual risk assessment in an Austrian municipality, in: European Geosciences Union, Vol 10, 2008, EGU General Assembly 2008, EGU General Assembly 2008, 14.04.2008–18.04.2008, Wien, 10; ISSN 1029-7006, 2008a. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref39">
<label>39</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Neuhold, C. and Nachtnebel, H. P.: Flood risk assessment in an Austrian municipality comprising the evaluation of effectiveness and efficiency of flood mitigation measures, FLOODrisk2008, Proceedings, London: Taylor and Francis, 2008b. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref40">
<label>40</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Niekamp, O.: Hochwasserschäden, in: Hochwasser-Handbuch, Auswirkungen und Schutz/Hrsg.: Heinz Patt. Springer, 2001. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref41">
<label>41</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Peticzka, P. and Kriz, K.: General soil map, in: Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management, Hydrological Atlas of Austria, 2nd Edition, Vienna, 2005. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref42">
<label>42</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Plate, E. J.: Stochastic design in hydraulics: concepts for a broader application, in: Kuo, J. T. and Lin, G. F., edited by: Stochastic Hydraulics &apos;92, Proc. 6th IAHR International Symposium on Stochastic Hydraulics, Taipei, Taiwan, May, 18–20, 1992, Dept Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, 663–670, 1992. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref43">
<label>43</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Popper, K.: The open universe, Hutchinson, London, 185 pp., 1982. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref44">
<label>44</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Rabinovich, S.: Measurement errors: Theory and practice, American Institute of Physics, New York, 1993. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref45">
<label>45</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Rodriguez, R.: Hochwassergefahrenkarten für Deutschland – Zusammenfassung und Vorschlag für ein koordiniertes Vorgehen der Bundesländer, Teil 1: Voraussetzungen für die Erstellung von Hochwassergefahrenkarten, in: Hochwassergefahrenkarten, 2005. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref46">
<label>46</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Skoda, G., Weilguni, V., and Haiden, T.: Heavy Convective Storms – Precipitation during 15, 60 und 180 minutes, in: Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management, edited: Hydrological Atlas of Austria, 2nd Edition, Vienna, 2005. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref47">
<label>47</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Schanze, J., Hutter, G., Harries, T., Holzmann, H., Koeniger, P., Kuhlicke, C., Meyer, V., Nachtnebel, H. P., Neuhold, C., Olfert, A., Parker, D., Penning-Rowsell, E., Schildt, A., and Werritty, A.: Systematisation, evaluation and context conditions of structural and non-structural measures for flood risk reduction ERA-NET CRUE funding initiative, 131, 2008. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref48">
<label>48</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Schmidke, R. F.: Klimaveränderung – sozioökonomische Konsequenzen, Karlsruhe: Landesanstalt für Umwelt, Messungen und Naturschutz Baden-Württemberg (LUBW), 269–276. http://www.kliwa.de, 2000. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref49">
<label>49</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Stanzel, P., Neuhold, C., and Nachtnebel, H. P.: Estimation of design floods for ungauged basins in an alpine watershed, in: European Geosicences Union, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol 9, 2007, EGU General Assembly, 15–20, April 2007, Vienna, 2007. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref50">
<label>50</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Statistik Austria: Ein Blick auf die Gemeinde – 61713-Gleisdorf – Gemeindedaten, http://www.statistik.at/blickgem/gemDetail.do?gemnr=61713&amp;gemnam=Gleisdorf, 2005a. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref51">
<label>51</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Statistik Austria: Leistungs- und Strukturstatistik – Unternehmen und Arbeitsstätten, http://www.statistik.at/web_de/statistiken/unternehmen_arbeitsstaetten/leistungs-_und_strukturdaten/index.html, 2005b. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>