NHESS Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences NHESS Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 1684-9981 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/nhess-9-1509-2009 "Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster – Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia Taubenböck H. 1 2 Goseberg N. 3 Setiadi N. 4 Lämmel G. 5 Moder F. 6 Oczipka M. 7 Klüpfel H. 8 Wahl R. 9 Schlurmann T. 3 Strunz G. 1 Birkmann J. 4 Nagel K. 5 Siegert F. 6 Lehmann F. 7 Dech S. 1 2 Gress A. 9 Klein R. 9 German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), German Aerospace Center (DLR), 82234 Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany Julius-Maximilians University Würzburg, Geographical Institute, Earth Observation, 97074 Würzburg, Germany Leibniz University Hannover, Franzius-Institut für Wasserbau und Küsteningenieurwesen, 30167 Hannover, Germany United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), 53113 Bonn, Germany Technical University Berlin, Verkehrssystemplanung und Verkehrstelematik, Institut für Land- und Seeverkehr, Fakultät V – Verkehr- und Maschinensysteme, 10587 Berlin, Germany Remote Sensing Solutions GmbH (RSS), 81667 München, Germany Institut für Robotik und Mechatronik, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Berlin-Adlershof, Germany TraffGo HT GmbH, Falkstr. 73–77, 47058 Duisburg, Germany Insitute of Computer Science II, University of Bonn, 53117 Bonn, Germany 28 08 2009 9 4 1509 1528 Copyright: © 2009 H. Taubenböck et al. 2009 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/9/1509/2009/nhess-9-1509-2009.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/9/1509/2009/nhess-9-1509-2009.pdf

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of small-scale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socio-economic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity.

 References Barber, B.: Tsunami relief, US Agency for International Development, Washington DC, 28&nbsp;pp., 2005. Behrens, J.: TsunAWI – Unstructured Mesh Finite Element Model for the Computation of Tsunami Scenarios with Inundation, Proceedings of NAFEMS Seminar, 2008. Bernard, E. N., Mofjeld, H. O., Titov, V., Synolakis, C. E., and Gonzalez, F. I.: Tsunami: Scientific frontiers, mitigation, forecasting and policy implications, Philos. T. R. Soc.&nbsp;A, 364, 1989–2007, 2006. Bernhard, E.: The U. S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program: A Successful State-Federal Partnership, Nat. Hazards, 35, 5–24, 2005. Bierlaire, M., Antonini, G., and Weber, M.: Behavioral dynamics for pedestrians, in: Moving through nets: The physical and social dimensions of travel, edited by: Axhausen, K., Elsevier, 2003. Birkmann, J.: Measuring vulnerability to promote disaster-resilient societies: Conceptual frameworks and definitions, in: Measuring Vulnerability to Natural hazards – Towards Disaster Resilient Societies, edited by: Birkmann, J., New York, United Nations University, 9–54, 2006. Birkmann, J., Dech, S., Goseberg, N., Lämmel, G., Moder, F., Nagel, K., Oczipka, M., Schlurmann, T., Setiadi, N., Siegert, F., Strunz, G. and Taubenböck, H.: Numerical Last-Mile Tsunami Early Warning and Evacuation Information System, in: International Conference on Tsunami Warning (ICTW), Bali, Indonesia, 12&nbsp;pp., 12–14 November 2008a. Birkmann, J., Setiadi, N., and Gebert, N.: Socio-economic vulnerability assessment at the local level in context of tsunami early warning and Evacuation planning in the city of Padang, West Sumatra, Paper for International Conference on Tsunami Warning, Nusa Dua, Indonesia, 12–14 November 2008b. Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I., and Wisner, B.: At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability and Disasters, Routeledge, London, S.&nbsp;320, 1994. Bogardi, J. and Birkmann, J.: Vulnerability Assessment: The First Step Towards Sustainable Risk Reduction, in: Disaster and Society – From Hazard Assessment to Risk Reduction, edited by: Malzahn, D. and Plapp, T., Logos Verlag Berlin, Berlin, 75–82, 2004. Börner, A., Hirschmüller, H., Scheibe, K., Suppa, M., and Wohlfeil, J.: MFC – a modular line camera for 3D world modeling in Lecture Notes, in: Computer Science, Berlin/Heidelberg, Germany, January 2008. Borrero, J. C., Sieh, K., Chlieh, M., and Synolakis, C. E.: Tsunami inundation modeling for western Sumatra, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103, 19673–19677, available at: <a href="http://www.pnas.org">http://www.pnas.org</a>, 2006. Borrero, J. C., Bourgeois, J., Harkins, G., and Synolakis, C. E.: How small-scale bathymetry affected coastal inundation in the 1992 Nicaraguan tsunami, Proc. of the Fall AGU Meeting, San Francisco, 1997. Burbridge, D., Cummins, P. R., Mleczko, R., and Thio, H. K.: A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Western Australia, Pure Appl. Geophys., 165(11–12), 2059–2088(30), 2008. Cannon, T., Twigg, J., and Rowell, J.: Social Vulnerability: Sustainable Livelihoods and Disasters, Report to DFID Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance Department (CHAD) and Sustainable Livelihoods Support Office, <a href="http://www.proventionconsortium.org/themes/default/pdfs/CRA/DFIDSocialvulnerability.pdf">http://www.proventionconsortium.org/themes/default/pdfs/CRA/DFIDSocialvulnerability.pdf</a>, 2003. Cardona, O. D.: Environmental Management and Disaster Prevention: Two Related Topics: A Holistic Risk Assessment and Management Approach, in: Natural Disaster Management, edited by: Ingleton, J., Tudor Rose, London, 1999. Cardona, O. D.: Estimación Holistica del Riesgo Sismico Utilizando Sistemas Dinámicos Complejos, Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona, <a href="http://www.desenredando.org/public/varios/2001/ehrisusd/index.html">http://www.desenredando.org/public/varios/2001/ehrisusd/index.html</a>, 2001 Chen, X. and Zhan, F.: Agent-based modeling and simulation of urban evacuation: Relative effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies. Paper 04-0329, Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, 2004. Correll, R., Cramer, W., and Schellnhuber, H.-J.: Potsdam sustainability days, Symposium on "Methods and Models of Vulnerability Research, Analysis and Assessment", 2001. Davidson, R.: An Urban Earthquake Disaster Risk Index, The John A.&nbsp;Blume Earthquake Engineering Center, Department of Civil Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, Report No.&nbsp;121, 1997. Goseberg, N., Stahlmann, A., Schimmels, S., and Schlurmann, T.: Highly-resolved numerical modeling of tsunami run-up and inundation scenario in the city of Padang, West Sumatra, Proc.&nbsp;of the 31st Int. Conference on Coastal Engineering, in press, 2009. Goseberg, N. and Schlurmann, T.: Relevant factors on the extent of inundation Based on Tsunami scenarios for the city of Padang, West Sumatra, Proc.&nbsp;of the International Conference on Tsunami Warning (ICTW), 2008. Goto, C., Ogawa, Y., Shuto, N., and Imamura, N.: IOC Manual, UNESCO, No.&nbsp;35, 1997. Gre{ß}, A. and Klein, R.: Visualization Framework for the Integration and Exploration of Heterogeneous Geospatial Data, Proceedings of Eurographics 2009 – Areas Papers, Eurographics Association, 27–34, April 2009. Harig, S., Chaeroni, C., Behrens, J., and Schroeter, J.: Tsunami Simulations with unstructured grids (TsunAWI) and a comparison to simulations with nested grids (Tsunami-N3), 6th Int. Workshop on Unstructured Mesh Numerical Modeling of Coastal, Shelf and Ocean Flows, London, 2007. Helbing, D., Farkas, I., and Molnar, P.: Simulation of pedestrian crowds in normal and evacuation situations, in: Pedestrian and Evacation Dynamics, Proceedings of the 1st international conference, Duisburg, 2001, Springer, 2002. Hobeika, A. and Kim, C.: Comparison of traffic assignments in evacuation modeling, IEEE T. Eng. Manage., 45(2), 192–198, 1998. Intermap Technologies: Product Handbook & Quick Start Guide, Standard Edition, v4.0, 2007. IPCC: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaption, and Vulnerability, Published for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, University Press, Cambridge, ISBN&nbsp;0-521-80768-9, 2001. Jha, M., Moore, K., and Pashaie, B.: Emergency evacuation planning with microscopic traffic simulation, Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, Paper 04-2414, 2004. Kass, S., Post, J., Taubenböck, H., Roth, A., Strunz, G., Stötter, J., Mardiatno, D., Ismail, F., and Anwar, H.: Automated assessment of building vulnerability with high resolution IKONOS data for Padang, Indonesia, Proceedings of the International Symposium on Disaster in Indonesia: Problems and Solutions, Padang, July 2007. Klüpfel, H., Meyer-König, T., Ke{ß}el, A., et al.: Simulating evacuation processes and comparison to empirical results, in: Traffic and granular flow&nbsp;'01, edited by: Fukui, M., Sugiyama, Y., Schreckenberg, M., and Wolf, D., Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg/New York, 449–454, 2003. Kwon, E. and Pitt, S.: Evaluation of emergency evacuation strategies for downtown event traffic using a dynamic network model, Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, Paper 05-2164, 2005. Lämmel, L., Rieser, M., and Nagel, K.: Large Scale Microscopic Evacuation Simulation, Proc. 4th International Conference on Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics, Wuppertal, Germany, in press, 2009. Lämmel, L., Rieser, M., Nagel, K., Taubenböck, H., Strunz, G., Goseberg, N., Schlurmann, T., Klüpfel, H., Setiadi, N., and Birkmann, J.: Emergency Preparedness in the case of a Tsunami – Evacuation Analysis and Traffic Optimization for the Indonesian city of Padang, Proc. of the 4th Interantional Conference on Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics, Wuppertal, Germany, 2008. Lämmel, L. and Nagel, K.: Multi agent based large-scale evacuation simulation, Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, Paper 09-2135, 2009. Lämmel, L., Klüpfel, H., and Nagel, K.: Preliminary Result of a Large Scale Microscopic Evacuation Simulation for the City of Padang in the Case of Tsunami, Proc. of the International Conference on Tsunami Warning (ICTW), Bali, Indonesia, <a href="http://pirba.ristek.go.id/ictw/e-proceedings/PDF/4.\20Laemmel%20Gregor.pdf">http://pirba.ristek.go.id/ictw/e-proceedings/PDF/4.\20Laemmel%20Gregor.pdf</a>, 2008. Last-Mile Project: <a href="www.last-mile-evacuation.de">www.last-mile-evacuation.de</a>, 2009. Lauterjung, J. and Rudloff, A.: GITEWS – The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, EOS T. Am. Geophys. Un., 86(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., 2005. Leitmann, J.: Cities and Calamities: Learning from Post-Disaster response in Indonesia, in: Journal of Urban Health: Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine, 84(1), 144–153(10), 2007. Leone, F., Denain, J.-C., Vinet, F., and Bachri, S.: Analyse spatiale des dommages au bâti d Banda Aceh (Sumatra, Indonésie): contribution à la connaissance du phénomène et à l'élaboration de scénarios de risque tsunami, in: Le tsunami du 26 décembre 2004 en Indonésie – Rapport scientifique du programme TSUNARISQUE (2005–2006), 69–94, edited by: Lavigne, F. and Paris, R., Délégation Interministérielle pour l'aide Post-Tsunami (DIPT), Ambassade de France en Indonésie, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 356&nbsp;pp., 2007. Lynett, P., Wu, T.-R., and Liu, L.-F.: Modeling wave runup with depth-integrated equations, Coast. Eng., 46, 89–107, 2002. Marschalk, U., Roth, A., Eineder, M., and Suchandt, S.: Comparison of DEMs derived from SRTM/X- and C-Band, in: Proceedings of the IGARSS 2004, Anchorage, USA, 2004. McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J., and White, K. S. (Eds.): Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001. McCloskey, J., Antonioli, A., Piatanesi, A., Sieh, K., Steacy, S., Nalbant, S., Cocco, M., Giunchi, C., Huang, J. and Dunlop, P.: Tsunami threat in the Indian Ocean from a future megathrust earthquake west of Sumatra, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 265, 61–81, 2008. Moder, F., Oczipka, M., Siegert, F., Lehmann, F., Djajadihardaja, Y. S., Klein, R., and Wahl, R.: Last-Mile – Large-Scale topographic mapping of densely populated coasts in support of risk assessment of tsunami hazards, International Conference on Tsunami Warning, Bali, Indonesia, 12–14 November 2008. Nielsen, O., Roberts, S., Gray, D., McPherson, A., and Hitchman, A.: Hydrodynamic modeling of coastal Inundation, in: MODSIM 2005 Int. Congress on Modeling and Simulation, Zerger, A. (Hrsg.), Modeling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 518–523, 2005. Papathoma, M., Dominey-Howes, D., Zong, Y., and Smith, D.: Assessing tsunami vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 377–389, 2003. Pedersen, G., Liu, P. L., Yeh, H., and Synolakis, C.: Advanced numerical models for simulating tsunami waves and runup, World Scientific, 10&nbsp;pp., 2008. Peeta, S. and Ziliaskopoulos, A.: Foundations of Dynamic Traffic Assignment: The Past, the Present and the Future, Netw. Spat. Econ., 1(3), 233–265, 2001. Rastogi, B. K. and Jaiswal, R. K.: A Catalogue of Tsunamis in the Indian Ocean, Science of Tsunami Hazards, 25(3), 128–143, 2006. Reese, S., Cousins, W. J., Power, W. L., Palmer, N. G., Tejakusuma, I. G., and Nugrahadi, S.: Tsunami vulnerability of buildings and people in South Java – field observations after the July 2006 Java tsunami, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 573–589, 2007. Richter, R.: A spatially adaptive fast atmospheric correction algorithm, Int. J. Remote Sens., 17(6), S.&nbsp;1201–1214, 1996. Saita, J. and Nakamura, Y.: UrEDAS: The Early Warning System for Mitigation of Disasters Caused by Earthquakes and Tsunamis, in: Early Warning Systems for Natural Disaster Reduction, edited by: Zschau, J. and Küppers, N., Springer, 2003. Schneider, M. and Klein, R.: Enhancing Textured Digital Elevation Models Using Photographs. Proceedings of the Fourth International Symposium on 3D Data Processing, Visualization and Transmission (3DPVT'08), 2008. Schneider, M. and Klein, R.: Efficient and Accurate Rendering of Vector Data on Virtual Landscapes, Journal of WSCG, 15(1–3), 59–64, January 2007. Schneiderbauer, S. and Ehrlich, D.: Risk, Hazard and People's Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: A Review of Definitions, Concepts and Data, European Commission-Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC), Brussels, 2004. Schneiderbauer, S. and Ehrlich, D.: Social levels and hazard (in)dependence in determining vulnerability, in: Measuring Vulnerability to Natural hazards – Towards Disaster Resilient Societies, edited by: Birkmann, J., New York, United Nations University, 78–98, 2006. Setiadi, N.: WP&nbsp;1000: Socio-Economic Vulnerability Assessment – Numerical Last-Mile Tsunami Early Warning and Evacuation System, Presentation for the Status Meeting Geotechnologies, Osnabrück, 8 October 2008. Sheffi, Y.: Urban Transportation Networks: Equilibrium Analysis with Mathematical Programming Methods, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, USA, 1985. Sorensen, J. H.: Hazard Warning Systems: Review of 20 Years of Progress, Natural Hazards Review, 1, 119–125, 2000. Synolakis, C. E. and Bernard, E. N.: Tsunami science before and beyond Boxing Day 2004, Philos. T. R. Soc.&nbsp;A, 364, 2231–2265, 2006. Taubenböck, H. and Roth, A.: A transferable and stable classification approach in various urban areas and various high resolution sensors, Proc. of the Urban Remote Sensing Joint Event, Paris, France, S.&nbsp;7, 2007. Taubenböck, H., Roth, A., and Dech, S.: Linking structural urban characteristics derived from high resolution satellite data to population distribution, in: Urban and Regional Data Management, Coors, Rumor, Fendel and Zlatanova (Hrsg.), Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN&nbsp;978-0-41544059-2, S.&nbsp;35–45, 2007. Taubenböck, H., Post, J., Roth, A., Zosseder, K., Strunz, G., and Dech, S.: A conceptual vulnerability and risk framework as outline to identify capabilities of remote sensing, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 409–420, 2008a. Taubenböck, H., Post, J., Kiefl, R., Roth, A., Ismail, F., Strunz, G., and Dech, S.: Risk and vulnerability assessment to tsunami hazard using very high resolution satellite data, in: Proceedings of the EARSeL Joint Workshop: Remote Sensing: New Challenges of high resolution, edited by: Carsten, J., Bochum, Germany, ISBN&nbsp;978-3-925143-79-3, 77–86, <a href="http://www.earsel.org/workshops/HighRes2008/Artikel/09_Taubenboeck.pdf">http://www.earsel.org/workshops/HighRes2008/Artikel/09_Taubenboeck.pdf</a>, 2008b. Taubenböck, H., Post, J., Roth, A., Strunz, G., Kiefl, R., Dech, S., and Ismail, F.: Multi-scale assessment of population distribution utilizing remotely sensed data – The case study Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia, International Conference on Tsunami Warning (ICTW), Bali, Indonesia, 12–14 November 2008c. Taubenböck, H., Wurm, M., Setiadi, N., Gebert, N., Roth, A., Strunz, G., Birkmann, J., and Dech, S.: Integrating Remote Sensing and Social Science – The correlation of urban morphology with socioeconomic parameters, Urban Remote Sensing Joint Event, Shanghai, China, 2009. Tinti, S., Manucci, A., Pagnoni, G., Armigliato, A., and Zaniboni, F.: The 30 December 2002 landslide-induced tsunamis in Stromboli: sequence of the events reconstructed from the eyewitness accounts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 763–775, 2005. Titov, V., Gonzalez, F., Bernhard, E., Eble, M., Mofjeld, H., Newman, J., and Venturato, A.: Real-time tsunami forecasting: Challenges and solutions, Nat. Hazards, 35, 41–58, 2005. Titov, V. V. and Synolakis, C. E.: Numerical modeling of tidal wave runup, J. Waterway Div.-ASCE, 124, 157–171, 1998. Turner, B. L., Kasperson, R. E., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R. W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J. X., Luers, A., Martello, M. L., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., and Schiller, A.: A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 100(14), 8074–8079, 2003. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR): Living with Risk: A global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland, UN Publications, 2004. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR): Global Survey of Early Warning Systems, UN/ISDR, ISDR/PPEW, 2006. Wahl, R., Schnabel, R., and Klein, R.: From Detailed Digital Surface Models to City Models Using Constrained Simplification, Photogramm. Fernerkun., 3, 207–215, 2008 Wahl, R., Massing, M., Degener, P., Guthe, M., and Klein, R.: Scalable Compression and Rendering of Textured Terrain Data, Journal of WSCG, 12(3), 521–528, February 2004. Zoppou, C. and Roberts, S.: Catastrophic Collapse of Water Supply Reservoirs in Urban Areas, J. Hydraul. Eng.-ASCE, 125, S.&nbsp;686–695, 1999.