NHESS Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences NHESS Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 1684-9981 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/nhess-9-1075-2009 Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threats in Indonesia at a sub-national scale Post J. 1 Wegscheider S. 1 Mück M. 1 Zosseder K. 1 Kiefl R. 1 Steinmetz T. 1 2 Strunz G. 1 German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), German Aerospace Center (DLR), 82234 Wessling, Germany Julius-Maximilians-University Würzburg, Geographic Institute, Am Hubland, 97074 Würzburg, Germany 06 07 2009 9 4 1075 1086 Copyright: © 2009 J. Post et al. 2009 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/9/1075/2009/nhess-9-1075-2009.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/9/1075/2009/nhess-9-1075-2009.pdf

Human immediate response is contextualized into different time compartments reflecting the tsunami early warning chain. Based on the different time compartments the available response time and evacuation time is quantified. The latter incorporates accessibility of safe areas determined by a hazard assessment, as well as environmental and demographic impacts on evacuation speed properties assessed using a Cost Distance Weighting GIS approach. <br><br> Approximately 4.35 million Indonesians live in tsunami endangered areas on the southern coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali and have between 20 and 150 min to reach a tsunami-safe area. Most endangered areas feature longer estimated-evacuation times and hence the population possesses a weak immediate response capability leaving them more vulnerable to being directly impacted by a tsunami. At a sub-national scale these hotspots were identified and include: the Mentawai islands off the Sumatra coast, various sub-districts on Sumatra and west and east Java. Based on the presented approach a temporal dynamic estimation of casualties and displacements as a function of available response time is obtained for the entire coastal area. As an example, a worst case tsunami scenario for Kuta (Bali) results in casualties of 25 000 with an optimal response time (direct evacuation when receiving a tsunami warning) and 120 000 for minimal response time (no evacuation). The estimated casualties correspond well to observed/reported values and overall model uncertainty is low with a standard error of 5%. <br><br> The results obtained allow for prioritization of intervention measures such as early warning chain, evacuation and contingency planning, awareness and preparedness strategies down to a sub-district level and can be used in tsunami early warning decision support.

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