<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">NHESS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">NHESS</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1684-9981</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/nhess-8-1-2008</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Snow loads in a changing climate: new risks?</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Strasser</surname>
<given-names>U.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians University (LMU), Luisenstr. 37, 80333 Munich, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>09</day>
<month>01</month>
<year>2008</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>8</volume>
<issue>1</issue>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>8</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2008 U. Strasser</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2008</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Generic License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/8/1/2008/nhess-8-1-2008.html">This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/8/1/2008/nhess-8-1-2008.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/8/1/2008/nhess-8-1-2008.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/8/1/2008/nhess-8-1-2008.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>In January/February 2006, heavy snowfalls in Bavaria (Germany) lead to a
series of infrastructural damage of catastrophic nature. Since on many
collapsed roofs the total snow load was not exceptional, serious engineering
deficiencies in roof construction and a sudden rise in the total snow load
were considered to be the trigger of the events. An analysis of the then
meteorological conditions reveals, that the early winter of 2005/2006 was
characterised by an exceptional continuous snow cover, temperatures remained
around the freezing point and no significant snowmelt was evident. The
frequent freezing/thawing cycles were followed by a general compaction of
the snow load. This resulted in a re-distribution and a new concentration of
the snow load on specific locations on roofs. With respect to climate
change, the question arises as to whether the risks relating to snow loads
will increase. The future probability of a continuous snow cover occurrence
with frequent freezing/thawing cycles will probably decline due to predicted
higher temperatures. However, where temperatures remain low, an increase in
winter precipitation will result in increased snow loads. Furthermore, the
variability of extremes is predicted to increase. If heavy snowfall events
are more frequent, the risk of a trigger event will likely increase.
Finally, an attempt will be made here in this paper to outline a concept for
an operational warning system for the Bavarian region. This system envisages
to predict the development and risk of critical snow loads for a 3-day time
period, utilising a combination of climate and snow modelling data and using
this together with a snow pillow device (located on roofs) and the results
of which.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="8"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
<ref-list>
<title>References</title>
<ref id="ref1">
<label>1</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Adrian, G. and Frühwald, D.: Design der Modellkette GME/LM, promet, 27, 3/4, 106&amp;ndash;110, 2002. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref2">
<label>2</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">DIN, DIN 1055-5, Einwirkungen auf Tragwerke~-Teil~5: Schnee &amp;ndash; und Eislasten, Deutsches Institut für Normung e.V., 2005. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref3">
<label>3</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">DWD, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Klimadaten zu den Stationen Bad Reichenhall, Holzkirchen, Mühldorf/Inn, Fürstenzell, Offenbach, 2006. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref4">
<label>4</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">IPCC, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Working group I: The Physical Science Basisof Climate Change http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html,last access: 9 January 2008. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref5">
<label>5</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">LfU, Bavarian Environment Agency, http://www.lfu.bayern.de/, last access: 9 January 2008. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref6">
<label>6</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Maidment, D. R.: Handbook of Hydrology, McGraw-Hill, 1400~pp., 1993. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref7">
<label>7</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">MPI,http://www.mpi-met.mpg.de/wissenschaft/ueberblick/atmosphaere-im-erdsystem/regio nale-klimamodellierung/remo-uba/abbildungen.html, last access: 9 January 2008. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref8">
<label>8</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Müller-Westermeier, G.: Klimatologische Anmerkungen zu den Schneedecken im Bayerischen Wald im Februar~2006, DWD online, http://www.dwd.de/de/FundE/Klima/KLIS/prod/spezial/regen/KlimatologischeAnmerkungen_Schneedecken_Bayrischer_Wald_Februar_2006_2.pdf, 2006. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>