NHESS Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences NHESS Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 1684-9981 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/nhess-5-1003-2005 Modelling expected physical impacts and human casualties from explosive volcanic eruptions Spence R. J. S. 1 Kelman I. 1 Calogero E. 1 Toyos G. 1 Baxter P. J. 2 Komorowski J.-C. 3 Department of Architecture, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, CNRS UMR 7154, Volcanology Group, Paris, France 19 12 2005 5 6 1003 1015 Copyright: © 2005 R. J. S. Spence et al. 2005 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Generic License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/5/1003/2005/nhess-5-1003-2005.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/5/1003/2005/nhess-5-1003-2005.pdf

A multi-hazard, multi-vulnerability impact model has been developed for application to European volcanoes that could significantly damage human settlements. This impact model is based on volcanological analyses of the potential hazards and hazard intensities coupled with engineering analyses of the vulnerability to these hazards of residential buildings in four European locations threatened by explosive volcanic eruptions. For a given case study site, inputs to the model are population data, building characteristics, volcano scenarios as a series of hazard intensities, and scenarios such as the time of eruption or the percentage of the population which has been evacuated. Outputs are the rates of fatalities, seriously injured casualties, and destroyed buildings for a given scenario. These results are displayed in a GIS, thereby presenting risk maps which are easy to use for presenting to public officials, the media, and the public. Technical limitations of the model are discussed and future planned developments are considered. This work contributes to the EU-funded project EXPLORIS (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047). </p><p style="line-height: 20px;">&nbsp;</p>