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  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">NHESS</journal-id><journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">NHESS</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
  </journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1684-9981</issn><publisher>
    <publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
  </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022</article-id><title-group><article-title>Hotspots for warm and dry summers in Romania</article-title><alt-title>Hotspots for warm and dry summers in Romania</alt-title>
      </title-group><?xmltex \runningtitle{Hotspots for warm and dry summers in Romania}?><?xmltex \runningauthor{V. Nagavciuc et al.}?>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1 aff2">
          <name><surname>Nagavciuc</surname><given-names>Viorica</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1111-9616</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Scholz</surname><given-names>Patrick</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2692-7624</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff1 aff2 aff3">
          <name><surname>Ionita</surname><given-names>Monica</given-names></name>
          <email>monica.ionita@awi.de</email>
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8240-4380</ext-link></contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine
Research, Paleoclimate Dynamics Group, <?xmltex \hack{\break}?>Bremerhaven, Germany</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>Faculty of Forestry, Ştefan cel Mare University, Suceava, Romania</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><institution>Emil Racovita Institute of Speleology, Romanian Academy, Cluj-Napoca,
Romania</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">Monica Ionita (monica.ionita@awi.de)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>14</day><month>April</month><year>2022</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>22</volume>
      <issue>4</issue>
      <fpage>1347</fpage><lpage>1369</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>11</day><month>October</month><year>2021</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-request"><day>2</day><month>November</month><year>2021</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>11</day><month>March</month><year>2022</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>23</day><month>March</month><year>2022</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright: © 2022 Viorica Nagavciuc et al.</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2022</copyright-year>
      <license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022.html">This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022.html</self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022.pdf</self-uri>
      <abstract><title>Abstract</title>

      <p id="d1e114">The combined effect of hot and dry extremes can have disastrous consequences
for society, the economy, and the environment. While a significant number of
studies have been conducted regarding the variability of the individual hot
or dry extremes in Romania, the evaluation of the combined effect of these
extremes (e.g., compound effect) is still lacking for this region. Thus, in
this study, we have assessed the spatiotemporal variability and trends of
hot and dry summers in Romania, between 1950 and 2020, and we have analyzed
the relationship between the frequency of hot summers and the prevailing
large-scale atmospheric circulation. The length, spatial extent, and
frequency of heat waves (HWs) in Romania present decadal variations, with the
rate of increase being accelerated after the 1990s. The smallest number of
HWs was observed between 1970 and 1985, while the highest number of HWs has
been recorded over the last 2 decades (i.e., 2001–2020). The hottest
years, in terms of heat wave duration and frequency, were 2007, 2012, 2015,
and 2019. One of the key drivers of hot summers, over our analyzed region,
is the prevailing large-scale circulation, featuring an anticyclonic
circulation over the central and eastern parts of Europe and enhanced
atmospheric blocking activity associated with positive temperature anomalies
underneath. The results from this study can help improve our understanding
of the spatiotemporal variability of hot and dry summers over Romania, as
well as their driving mechanisms, which might lead to a better predictability
of these extreme events in the region.</p>
  </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

<sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
      <p id="d1e126">According to the recently published AR6 report
(IPCC, 2021) “It is virtually
certain that there has been increases in the intensity and duration of
heat waves and the number of heat wave days at the global scale”. This
tendency has been clearly observed, especially over the last 2 decades,
when a significant increase in the frequency of hot summers has been
observed
(Feng
et al., 2020; Raymond et al., 2020; Seneviratne et al., 2012; Zscheischler
et al., 2018). Moreover, one of the main conclusions of the recently
published IPCC AR6 report (IPCC, 2021)
was that “future heatwaves will last longer and have higher temperatures”.
In this report (and the references therein) it has been shown that on a
global scale there is clear evidence of an increase in the number of warm
nights and days and a decrease in the number of cold nights and days
(IPCC, 2021). Overall, the frequency of
warm days (TX90p) has increased globally with small exceptions in the
southern part of South America (IPCC, 2021;
Rusticucci et al., 2017). Over Europe, an increase in the magnitude and
frequency of high maximum temperatures has been observed over the central
(Lorenz
et al., 2019; Tomczyk and Bednorz, 2016; Twardosz and Kossowska-Cezak, 2013)
and the southeastern parts of Europe (Christidis
et al., 2015; Croitoru et al., 2016; Croitoru and Piticar, 2013; Fioravanti
et al., 2016; Malinovic-Milicevic et al., 2016).</p>
      <p id="d1e129">Over different regions of the world, hot summers are usually accompanied by
extremely dry conditions, leading to the development of the so-called
“compound events” (Feng
et al., 2020; Geirinhas et al., 2021; Leonard et al., 2014; Ridder et al.,
2020; Russo et al., 2019). These compound events have the tendency to occur
at the same time or in sequence, leading to devastating consequences for
society, the economy, and the environment (Raymond
et al., 2020; Zscheischler and Seneviratne, 2017). Heat waves and droughts
fall into the category of climate-related hazards which more and more
frequently affect socio-economic activity, often having serious repercussions on
humans and the environment  (IPCC,
2021). Thus, in the context of ongoing climate change, the analysis of
heat waves and droughts, in terms of changes in their frequency and magnitude
as well as the analysis of the large-scale circulation patterns which favor
their occurrence, is of increasing interest (Balting
et al., 2021; Feng et al., 2020; Geirinhas et al., 2021; Ionita et al.,
2021a; Kong et al., 2020; Russo et al., 2019).</p>
      <p id="d1e132">Several studies have suggested that due to global warming the large-scale
atmospheric circulation has been altered both regionally and globally
(Horton et
al., 2015; Vaideanu et al., 2020). Any perturbance in the large-scale
atmospheric circulation will also lead to changes in the hydroclimate, due
to the fact that the atmospheric circulation plays a crucial role in the
global and regional hydroclimatic variability
(Ionita
et al., 2020; Kingston et al., 2006, 2015; Schubert et al., 2016). Changes
in temperature and precipitation have been found to be a direct response to
changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g., an
increase in the frequency of blocking conditions or an intensification of
the westerlies) (Horton
et al., 2015; Rimbu et al., 2014; Swain et al., 2016). For example, one key
driver of the European hydroclimate variability is the prevalence of
long-lasting high-pressure systems (also known as atmospheric blocking)
(Bakke
et al., 2020; Barriopedro et al., 2011; Ionita et al., 2021b; Kautz et al.,
2022; Rimbu et al., 2014; Schubert et al., 2014). These long-lasting
high-pressure systems have a significant impact on different types of
extreme events such as heat waves (Barriopedro
et al., 2011; Della-Marta et al., 2007; Laaha et al., 2017), cold spells
(Jeong et al.,
2021; Rimbu et al., 2014), droughts
(Ionita
et al., 2012; Kingston et al., 2015; Schubert et al., 2016), and floods
(Grams et al., 2014;
Najibi et al., 2019). Thus, it is essential to study the relationship
between the changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events and
their large-scale drivers, in order to have a better overview of the
physical mechanisms leading to the occurrence of these extreme events.</p>
      <p id="d1e135">In terms of exposure and vulnerability to such climate-related risks (e.g.,
heat waves and droughts), Romania is particularly prone to them, due to both its
geographical position and the topographic features, which give it a
very special status in relation to the manifestations of the weather
(Croitoru
and Piticar, 2013; Micu et al., 2021; Sfîcă et al., 2017). The
existence of the Black Sea and, especially, the concentric distribution
(i.e., “in the amphitheater”) of the Carpathian Mountains (Fig. 1) induce
a series of peculiarities in the prevailing climatic conditions that are
also reflected in the thermal regime mediated at the scale of different
regions of the country. Moreover, the evolution of the weather in Romania
depends strongly on the degree of exposure to alternating, often rapid,
types of air masses passing the country (e.g., continental, tropical,
maritime, or polar)
(Bădăluță
et al., 2019; Busuioc et al., 2010, 2015; Tomozeiu et al., 2005).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F1" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p id="d1e141">Topographic map of Romania and the location of the country at the European level.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022-f01.jpg"/>

      </fig>

      <p id="d1e150">At country scale, different studies have analyzed the potential changes in
the frequency of HWs, either by using observational records (e.g., station
data) or gridded datasets (Croitoru
et al., 2016; Croitoru and Piticar, 2013; Hustiu, 2016; Micu et al., 2021;
Sfîcă et al., 2017). In their paper,
Sfîcă et al. (2017) have
analyzed the synoptic conditions which lead to the occurrence of heat waves
in Romania, over the period 1961–2015. By analyzing 111 HW events they
found that there are two major types of weather patterns associated with HW
occurrence, namely positive or neutral sea level pressure anomalies and
persistent ridges, over the analyzed region. Over the same period (i.e., 1961–2015),  Croitoru et al. (2016)
found that the frequency of heat waves, defined based on the daily maximum
temperature, shows a significant increasing trend, throughout the country.
Looking at a more regional scale,
Croitoru and Piticar (2013) have shown
that there is an increasing trend in the frequency of heat wave events over
the extra-Carpathian regions of Romania (i.e., the eastern and southern part
of the country) and that the daily maximum temperature is getting more
extreme compared to the daily minimum temperature. Over the eastern part of
the country, Hustiu (2016) has shown that the annual
frequency of heat wave events features an increasing trend over the period
1961–2013, while in a more recent study, Micu et al. (2021) have shown
that the southern part of the Carpathian Mountains is facing a significant
warming trend. All the aforementioned studies are either limited in time or
are very regional (Croitoru
and Piticar, 2013; Hustiu, 2016; Sfîcă et al., 2017; Spinoni et
al., 2015), and they were mainly focused on the analysis of trends in the
heat wave frequency. To our knowledge no in-depth analysis, for this region,
has been made regarding the variability and trend for compound events (e.g.,
hot and dry summers). Moreover, taking into account that the frequency of
extreme events (e.g., heat waves, cold spells, drought, and floods) is
projected to increase in the future (IPCC, 2021) it is imperative to also
understand the physical process forcing the increase in the frequency and
magnitude of these events in order to improve their predictability. Taking
into account the aforementioned limitations, the current paper is focused on
two main objectives: (i) to analyze the trends and the spatiotemporal
variability of both hot and dry summers in Romania, as well as their
combined effect (e.g., compound events), and (ii) to determine the large-scale
circulation patterns which trigger the occurrence of hot summers over the
analyzed region, by analyzing the geopotential height conditions and the
frequency of atmospheric blocking during the periods characterized by a high
frequency of hot days. Our study extends over the period 1951–2020,
making it the most extensive study, from a temporal point of view, over
Romania. The paper is structured as follows: in Sect. 2 we give a detailed
description of the data and methods used in this study, in Sect. 3 we show
the main results of our analysis, and in Sect. 4 the main conclusions are presented.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <label>2</label><title>Data and methods</title>
      <p id="d1e161">Globally, heat waves are recognized either by utilizing a threshold-based
methodology  (Perkins and Alexander, 2013) or by using the
exceedance of a fixed absolute value (e.g., daily maximum temperature <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 30 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C) (Robinson, 2001). In general,
the method based on fixed thresholds takes into account periods of
consecutive days when the daily maximum temperature (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) is above a certain
percentile for a particular calendar day. In this study, we have used the
90th percentile, based on a 15 d window centered on each calendar day
(Perkins and Alexander, 2013). For the duration, we have
tested different lengths of 3, 4, 5, and 6 consecutive days (not shown), and
for the current analysis we have chosen a period of 5 d. This threshold
has been chosen in such a way to ensure enough heat wave events to be
considered but also to remove small events. This is also a threshold
which is recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and
Indices (ETCCDI). The mean daily 90th percentile was calculated over
the baseline period 1971–2000. The daily maximum temperature used in this
study was extracted from the E-OBSv23.1e dataset (Cornes et
al., 2018). Here, the heat wave duration index (HWDI) is defined as the
number of days per month and per season when the aforementioned criteria were
satisfied, while the number of heat waves (HWs) is defined as the number of
heat waves per month and per season. The temporal evolution of the HWDI for each
summer month (i.e., June, July, and August) as well as for the whole summer
season (JJA), for all considered lengths (i.e., 3, 4, 5 and 6 d, not
shown), indicates a strong interannual variability and relatively significant
decadal differences. As expected, the smaller the length of the threshold,
the longer the heat wave. Globally, different duration thresholds have been
employed, depending on the analyzed regions. For example, in Canada, a
duration threshold <inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2 d has been used
(Smoyer-Tomic et al., 2003), in Hungary and France a
duration threshold <inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3 d has been considered  (Rey
et al., 2007), and in China and Ukraine a duration threshold <inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 5 d
has been used  (Chen
and Li, 2017; Shevchenko et al., 2014). In the eastern part of Europe (e.g.,
Bulgaria), a duration threshold <inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3 d has been found useful
(Gocheva et al., 2006). Since Romania is situated in the
eastern part of Europe, where a threshold <inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 5 or 6 d has been tested
and because we want to analyze only extreme heat waves in this study, the
rest of the analysis is focused on a threshold <inline-formula><mml:math id="M9" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 5 d.</p>
      <p id="d1e234">The hydroclimatic conditions
are defined by considering the <?xmltex \hack{\mbox\bgroup}?>1-<?xmltex \hack{\egroup}?>, <?xmltex \hack{\mbox\bgroup}?>3-<?xmltex \hack{\egroup}?>, and 6-month standardized
precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)
(Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010). For this
analysis, we used the June, July, and August SPEI1 and the August
SPEI3, which integrates the drought conditions over the summer
months (i.e., June–July–August). The SPEI was computed based on the
precipitation (PP) and the potential evapotranspiration (PET) data extracted
from the E-OBS v23.0e dataset, with a spatial resolution of 0.1<inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M11" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.1<inline-formula><mml:math id="M12" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> and a temporal resolution covering the period 1950–2020.
The computation of SPEI is based on the probability distribution of the
difference between PP and PET (PP–PET), and the data are normalized into a
log-logistic probability distribution. The potential evapotranspiration data
were computed by employing the Penman–Monteith equation (Vanderlinden et
al., 2008). The advantage of using SPEI is that it is standardized on a
given period and a predefined distribution. Therefore, each SPEI value
corresponds to a predefined probability. Here, we choose the threshold of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M13" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>,
meaning that all occurrences of SPEI below the threshold would be considered drought. This threshold generally corresponds to a moderate to extreme
drought event. Taking into account our definition of HW and drought, a compound
hot and dry (CHD) event is defined as a combined index when a heat wave
episode occurs during a period of drought conditions (e.g., August SPEI3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M14" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). This definition has also been used successfully for other regions
(Geirinhas et al.,
2021; Ionita et al., 2021a; Russo et al., 2019).</p>
      <p id="d1e293">To analyze the large-scale driving mechanism of heat waves, we use the daily
temperature at 850 mb (TT850), the daily geopotential height at 500 mb (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M15" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), the vertical integral of eastward and northward water vapor
flux, and the daily zonal and meridional wind at 500 mb. These
datasets have been extracted from the ERA5 reanalysis project
(Hersbach et al., 2020) and have a
spatial resolution of 0.25<inline-formula><mml:math id="M16" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M17" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.25<inline-formula><mml:math id="M18" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, covering the 1950–2020
period. We also used a two-dimensional (2D) atmospheric blocking index defined
by  Scherrer et al. (2006). To
compute the 2D blocking index, we have used the daily geopotential height
at 500 mb (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M19" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis project for the period
1950–2020. The 2D blocking index is an extension of the one-dimensional
(1D) Tibaldi–Molteni (TM) index (Tibaldi and Molteni, 1990) to a
two-dimensional map of blocking frequencies at every grid point. The
southern geopotential height gradient (GHGS) and the northern geopotential
height gradient (GHGN) for each grid point are evaluated as follows:

              <disp-formula specific-use="gather" content-type="numbered"><mml:math id="M20" display="block"><mml:mtable displaystyle="true"><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E1"><mml:mtd><mml:mtext>1</mml:mtext></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">GHGS</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϕ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϕ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">15</mml:mn><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">15</mml:mn><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E2"><mml:mtd><mml:mtext>2</mml:mtext></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">GHGN</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϕ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">15</mml:mn><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϕ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">15</mml:mn><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula>

          where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M21" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϕ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the latitude of the considered grid point varying from
35  to 75<inline-formula><mml:math id="M22" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N. For each month we have calculated the
ratio between the number of days when a certain grid point was blocked; i.e.,
the conditions GHGS <inline-formula><mml:math id="M23" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 0 and GHGN <inline-formula><mml:math id="M24" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M25" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> m per degree latitude) are simultaneously satisfied for at least 5 consecutive days.</p>
      <p id="d1e504">The extremeness of the July 2012, August 2015, and June 2019 heat waves was
analyzed by employing the ranking map methodology (Bakke
et al., 2020; Ionita et al., 2017). In this respect, we have computed the
TX90 for the 70-year period (1951–2020), and for each analyzed month (i.e.,
June, July, and August), and the years were ordered from the most extreme
(highest temperature) to the least extreme value. A rank of 1 implies
record-breaking high temperature (in the case of TX90), a rank of 2
indicates that the respective month had the second most extreme value, etc.</p>
      <p id="d1e508">The physical mechanism behind the occurrence of heat waves was identified by
computing composite maps instead of the correlation maps, in order to avoid
nonlinearities in the analyzed data. The composite maps were constructed for
years when the total area affected by a HW was higher than 20 % at the country
level. We selected this threshold to capture the strength of the climate
anomalies associated with monthly HW conditions and the number of maps
satisfying this criterion. The performed analysis has shown that the results
are not sensitive to the exact threshold value used for our composite
analysis (not shown). The significance of the composite maps is based on a
standard <inline-formula><mml:math id="M26" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> test (confidence level 95 %). To test the spatial–temporal
stability of the relationship between the HWDI and the large-scale
atmospheric circulation, we also make use of stability maps, a methodology
successfully applied in the seasonal forecast of European rivers and
Arctic sea ice   (Ionita et al.,
2008, 2019). In order to detect stable predictors, the variability of the
correlation between the HWDI time series and the gridded data is
investigated within a 31-year moving window over the period 1950–2020. The
correlation is considered stable for those regions where the HWDI index and
the gridded data (i.e., <inline-formula><mml:math id="M27" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) are significantly correlated at the 95 %,
90 %, 85 %, or 80 % level for more than 80 % of the 31-year moving
windows. A detailed description of this methodology is given in the
aforementioned papers.</p>
      <p id="d1e528">The trend analysis was performed by using the Mann–Kendall test
(Mann, 1945). The Mann–Kendall test has been intensively used to
identify the trend in the hydrometeorological time series (Adamowski
et al., 2009; Dang et al., 2020, and the references therein). In order to
identify trends of auto-correlated climatic time series, we used a modified
version of the Mann–Kendall test performed
(Hamed and Ramachandra Rao, 1998). In the new
version of the test, the significance of a trend is determined by the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M28" display="inline"><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>
statistic that has a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and variance of 1.
A positive <inline-formula><mml:math id="M29" display="inline"><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> value indicates an increasing trend, whereas a negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M30" display="inline"><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> value
shows a decreasing trend in the time series. The non-parametric Sen slope
method  (Sen, 1968) was used to evaluate the magnitude of the
trends.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <label>3</label><title>Results</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1">
  <label>3.1</label><title>Summer heat waves in Romania: variability and trends</title>
      <p id="d1e567">The heat wave duration index (HWDI) averaged at the country level and the
fraction of the country affected by a heat wave (AREA) are shown in Fig. 2.
This figure reveals that there is strong interannual and decadal variability
throughout all summer months (Fig. 2 – left column). For June, there is a
statistically significant increase in both HWDI (Fig. 2a and Table S1) and
AREA (Fig. 2b), with a much higher frequency of both after the beginning
of the 1990s. The longest heat wave was recorded in June 2019 and lasted 10 d, and more than 90 % of the country was affected. Until the beginning
of the 1990s there were relatively few HWs, most of them observed between
1960 and 1970, but their duration was much shorter compared to the events
recorded from 2000 onwards. Also, in terms of the affected area, after the
1990s most of the heat waves had a larger spatial extent, with an area
covered by a HW of more than 80 % in 1996, 2002, 2003, 2010, 2012, and
2019, respectively.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F2" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p id="d1e572">Monthly and seasonal temporal evolution of the summer heat wave duration (HWDI) averaged at the country level (left column) and the temporal evolution of the percentage area (AREA) affected by heat waves (right column) over the period 1950–2020: <bold>(a)</bold> June HWDI, <bold>(b)</bold> June AREA, <bold>(c)</bold> July HWDI, <bold>(d)</bold> July AREA, <bold>(e)</bold> August HWDI, <bold>(f)</bold> August AREA, <bold>(g)</bold> summer (JJA) HWDI, and <bold>(h)</bold> summer (JJA) AREA. The blue line indicates the linear trend.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=426.791339pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022-f02.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e606">As in the case of June, for July we also observe a statistically significant
increase in both the HWDI (Fig. 2c and Table S1) and the AREA (Fig. 2d).
At the beginning of the analyzed period (i.e., 1950–1960), there were
heat wave events lasting on average 4–5 d (when averaged at the country
level) and covering an area up to 80 %. Between 1970 and 1985 no HWs were
recorded throughout the country. After 1985 there is a steep increase in the
duration of the HWs, with the longest HWs in July 2007 and 2012, when the
whole country was affected (i.e., AREA <inline-formula><mml:math id="M31" display="inline"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 100 %). The years 1987, 2002, 2007,
2012, and 2015 have been characterized by HWs with a spatial coverage of
more than 80 % (Fig. 2d). For August, the temporal evolution of HWDI
(Fig. 2e) and AREA (Fig. 2f) follows the same path as June and July,
meaning a significantly increasing trend in both the duration and AREA
(Table S1). Over the period 1964–1988 no HWs were recorded in August,
while most of the longest and extended HWs were recorded in the last 2
decades of the analyzed period. The longest HW recorded in August was in
2015, followed by 2012, 1992, and 1952. In 1992, 2012, and 2015 the area
covered by HWs was higher than 90 % (Fig. 2f). For all analyzed months,
the HWs recorded in the last 2 decades were both longer and had a higher
spatial extent. If we analyzed all the summer months taken together (JJA),
we have a very clear picture (Fig. 2g and h): the period 1950–1970 was
characterized by the occurrence of HWs with a duration varying between 3 and
10 d, averaged at the country level, and a spatial extent between 20 % and 80 %, followed by a relatively HW-free period between 1971 and 1985.
After this period there was a significant increase in the duration of the
HWs, and most of them reached a spatial extent of more than 50 %,
especially over the last 2 decades (i.e., 2001–2020).</p>
      <p id="d1e617">Since the number of HWs per year is small, especially in the first half of the
analyzed period (i.e., 1951–1985), we have aggregated the number of
heat waves in decades, to be able to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in
their occurrence. We have performed the decadal analysis for each summer
month separately (Figs. S1, S2, and S3) and for the whole summer season
(JJA) as a whole (Fig. 3). We focused our analysis in this way, to have an
equal number of months per decade and also to provide decadal evolution of HW
hotspots at the country level. The first analyzed decade is 1951–1960,
followed by 1961–1970, and so on until 2011–2020. Figure 3 shows
the geographical distribution of the number of HWs per decade summed over the
summer months. Overall, there is an increased variability among different
regions of the country depending on the analyzed decades. Over the decade
1951–1960 up to 24 HWs per decade were recorded in the southeastern
part of the country (i.e., the Dobruja region), while in the northwest part
of the country up to 10 HWs per decade were recorded (Fig. 3a). Over the
decade 1961–1970, up to eight HWs per decade were recorded mainly in the
intra-Carpathian region (i.e., the northwest part of the country) (Fig. 3b). The decade 1971–1980 was almost HW free (Fig. 3c), while for the
decade 1981–1990 there were fewer than two HWs per decade at the country level
(Fig. 3d). Starting with the decade 1991–2000, the number of summer HWs
started to increase all over the country (Fig. 3e). During the 2001–2010 decade, the HW hotspots developed in the western part of the country
and the Dobruja region (i.e., southeastern part of the country) (Fig. 3f). Over the decade 2011–2020, there were up to 24 HWs per decade, the most
affected areas being the northwest, inside the Carpathian Mountains, and the
southeastern part of the country (Fig. 3g). Overall, there were up to 6
times more HWs in the last decade compared to the HWs at the beginning of
the analyzed period.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F3" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 3</label><caption><p id="d1e622">Decadal frequency of the number of summer heat waves (HWs) per decade over the last 70 years: <bold>(a)</bold> 1951–1960, <bold>(b)</bold> 1961–1970, <bold>(c)</bold> 1971–1980, <bold>(d)</bold> 1981–1990, <bold>(e)</bold> 1991–2000,  <bold>(f)</bold> 2001–2010, and <bold>(g)</bold> 2011–2020. Number of HWs per decade is given.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=369.885827pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022-f03.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e653">When looking at the decadal distribution of HWs hotspots for each summer
month separately, there are some clear differences, especially at the
beginning of the analyzed period (Figs. S1, S2, and S3). Over the decade
1951–1960, there were up to five HWs per decade in July (Fig. S2a) and August
(Fig. S3a), focused in the northwestern part of the country and the most
southeastern corner of the country. In June, a limited number of HWs have
been recorded in this decade (about two HWs per decade) over the eastern
part of the country (Fig. S1a). The decade 1961–1970 was characterized
by up to four HWs per decade in June, over the north and northwestern part of the
country (Fig. S1b), while in July (Fig. S2b) and August (Fig. S3b) one HW per decade was recorded in the western part of the country. The decade 1971–1980 was HW free in July (Fig. S2c) and August (Fig. S3c), while in
June there was about one HW per decade over a small part of the country
(Fig. S1c). The decade 1981–1990 was characterized by up to
two HWs per decade, at the country level, in July (Fig. S2d) and August (Fig. S3d).
Starting with the 1991–2000 decade, the number of HWs per decade starts to
increase at the country level, the most affected months being June (Fig. S1e–g) and August (Fig. S3e–g). Over the decade 2001–2010 there
were up to seven HWs per decade recorded in the south and southeastern part of the
country in June (Fig. S1f), up to six HWs per decade in the western part of the
country and the Dobruja region in July (Fig. S2f), and up to 10 HWs per decade in August, with a focus on the Dobruja region (Fig. S3f). For
the last decade (i.e., 2011–2020) the number of HWs per decade increased
in all months, but their spatial distribution differs. In June (Fig. S1g),
the highest number of HWs per decade was recorded over the northwestern part of
the country (up to 10 HWs per decade) and over the Dobruja region. In July, the
HW hotspots are over the northern and eastern parts of the country (Fig. S2g), while in August there is a homogenous distribution of up to
10 HWs per decade, throughout the country (Fig. S3g).</p>
      <p id="d1e656">From the decadal analysis of the number of HWs, we can clearly state that
the decade 2011–2020 was characterized by a significant increase in the
number of HWs compared to the previous decade, this increase being the
strongest in August. There are preferred hotspots for the HW occurrence,
depending on the analyzed decade and month, with] these hotspots being strongly
influenced by the geographical distribution of the Carpathian Mountains. The
most affected regions by the HW occurrence are the north and northwestern
part of the country and the Dobruja region. Dobruja is a region which has
been subjected to a significant increase in the mean air temperature and a
significant decrease in the summer precipitation
(Chelcea
et al., 2015; Prăvălie et al., 2017). Overall, there is a
significant increase, of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M32" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.2 HWs per decade in June, over most
parts of the country, except some small regions in the northeastern part
(Fig. 4a). In July a significant increase of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M33" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.1 HWs per decade can be observed in the northern part of the country, while for
the rest of the country no significant changes have been recorded (Fig. 4b). In August, there is a significant increase in the number of HWs over
Romania, especially over the eastern part of the country (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M34" display="inline"><mml:mo lspace="0mm">∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.2 HWs per decade) (Fig. 4c). When we consider all summer months together,
the increase in the number of HWs is significant at the country level, with
an increase of up to 0.4 HWs per decade in the eastern part of the country
(Fig. 4d).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F4" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{4}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 4</label><caption><p id="d1e682">Linear trend of the number of heat waves for <bold>(a)</bold> June, <bold>(b)</bold> July, <bold>(c)</bold> August, and <bold>(d)</bold> JJA. Stippling indicates statistically significant trends. Number of HWs per decade is shown. Analyzed period 1950–2020.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022-f04.png"/>

        </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2">
  <label>3.2</label><title>Summer droughts in Romania: variability and trends</title>
      <p id="d1e711">To analyze the variability and trends of drought conditions, at the country
level, we performed a similar analysis like in the previous section: we
averaged the SPEI at the country level (Fig. 5), we performed the decadal
analysis (Fig. 6), and we performed the trend analysis (Fig. 7). The temporal
evolution of June SPEI1 (Fig. 5a), July SPEI1 (Fig. 5c), August SPEI1
(Fig. 5e), and August SPEI3 (Fig. 5g) indicates a strong interannual
variability of the drought conditions, at the country level and a
statistically significant drying trend for August SPEI1. For June, the
driest years, in terms of both amplitude (Fig. 5a) and spatial coverage
(AREA, Fig. 5b), were 1950, 1968, 2003, 2006, and 2012. For July, the
driest years were 1952, 2007, 2012, and 2015 (Fig. 5c). For
these years, the drought conditions extended to more than 60 % of the
country (Fig. 5d). In August, the driest years, at the country level were
recorded in 1952, 1992, 2000, 2003, and 2018 (Fig. 5e), with the drought
conditions covering more than 60 % of the country (Fig. 5f). Moreover,
in the case of August SPEI1, only negative values were recorded for 13
consecutive years, from 2008 until 2020. August SPEI3, which is an indicator
of drought conditions over the whole summer, indicates that the driest
summers, over Romania, were 1950, 1952, 2000, 2003, 2012, 2015, and 2018 (Fig. 5g). For all these summers, drought affected more than
70 % of the country (Fig. 5h).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F5" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{5}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 5</label><caption><p id="d1e716">Monthly and seasonal temporal evolution of the SPEI averaged at the country level (left column) and the temporal evolution of the percentage area (AREA) affected by drought conditions (SPEI <inline-formula><mml:math id="M35" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, right column) over the period 1950–2020: <bold>(a)</bold> June SPEI1, <bold>(b)</bold> June drought AREA, <bold>(c)</bold> July SPEI1, <bold>(d)</bold> July drought AREA, <bold>(e)</bold> August SPEI1, <bold>(f)</bold> August drought AREA, <bold>(g)</bold> August SPEI3 (indicator of dry or wet conditions over the summer seasons), and <bold>(h)</bold> August SPEI3 drought AREA. The blue line indicates the linear trend.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=426.791339pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022-f05.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F6" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{6}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 6</label><caption><p id="d1e764">Decadal frequency of August SPEI3 over the last 70 years for the cases when  August SPEI3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M36" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>: <bold>(a)</bold> 1951–1960, <bold>(b)</bold> 1961–1970, <bold>(c)</bold> 1971–1980, <bold>(d)</bold> 1981–1990,  <bold>(e)</bold> 1991–2000, <bold>(f)</bold> 2001–2010, and <bold>(g)</bold> 2011–2020. Number of dry summers per decade is shown.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=369.885827pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022-f06.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F7" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{7}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 7</label><caption><p id="d1e810">Linear trend of <bold>(a)</bold> June SPEI1, <bold>(b)</bold> July SPEI1, <bold>(c)</bold> August SPEI1, and <bold>(d)</bold> the August SPEI3. Stippling indicates statistically significant trends. Number of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M37" display="inline"><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> scores per decade is shown. Analyzed period 1950–2020.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022-f07.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e838">The drought hotspots, at a decadal scale (Fig. 6), indicate strong
spatiotemporal variability between the different analyzed decades and
between different regions of the country. Over the 1951–1960 decade
(Fig. 6a), the drought hotspots (defined as the number of months per decade
when August SPEI3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M38" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for each grid point) was focused in the
northeastern part of the country. For this period, there were up to three summers per decade characterized by drought conditions over these regions. For
the decade 1961–1970 (Fig. 6b) there was a relatively limited number of
dry summers (about two dry summers per decade) throughout the country,
mostly focused on the northwestern part and south part of the country,
while the decade 1971–1980 (Fig. 6c) was drought free. For the decade
1981–1990 (Fig. 6d), there is a rather homogenous pattern at the
country level, with up to two (one) dry summers per decade affecting the western
(eastern) part of the country. The decade 1991–2000 (Fig. 6e) also indicates
a rather homogenous pattern of the drought conditions at the country level,
with up to four dry summers per decade in the western part of the country and three dry summers per decade over the rest of the country. The decade 2001–2010 is
characterized by an west–east gradient in the drought conditions, with the
highest number of dry years (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M39" display="inline"><mml:mo lspace="0mm">∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 4) in the southeastern part of
the country (Fig. 6f). Over the 2011–2020 decade, the drought hotspots
are located mainly over the western part and the southeastern part of the
country (Fig. 6g). The highest number of dry summers per decade were recorded
throughout this decade (i.e., 2011–2020), with up to six dry summers per decade
over the whole western part of the country and over the southeastern part.
Overall, the decadal spatiotemporal evolution of the drought conditions
(Fig. 6) indicates that drought events are not homogenous throughout the
country and that the decades with the highest number of dry summers were
1991–2000, 2001–2010, and 2011–2020. A similar pattern
is observed when looking at the SPEI trends, on both monthly (Fig. 7a–c)
and seasonal timescales (Fig. 7d). Overall, in June there is a
non-significant drying trend over the northwestern and southeastern parts
of the country (Fig. 7a and Table S2). In July there is an overall
non-significant drying trend over the southwestern and southeastern parts
of the country (Fig. 7b), while in August, the spatial trend pattern is
rather distinct compared to June and July, being characterized by a general
drying trend at the country level, but significant only over the eastern part of
the country (Fig. 7c). August SPEI3 trend, which takes into account all
summer months, is a combination of the features identified for each month
analyzed separately: a drying trend over the whole country, but
statistically significant only over the southeastern part of the country
(i.e., Dobruja region) (Fig. 7d).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS3">
  <label>3.3</label><title>Historical evolution of compound events (e.g., warm and dry summers) in
Romania</title>
      <p id="d1e868">In this sub-section, we analyze the co-variability between hot and dry
summers in terms of lagged and in-phase spatial correlation maps between the
monthly/seasonal HWDI and monthly SPEI (Fig. 8) and conditional
probability maps (Fig. 9). The lagged correlation maps (SPEI leading) have
been computed and analyzed in order to test for possible influence of the
pre-conditions of dry spring and/or early summer on the occurrence of summer heat
waves. To find the best combination, in terms of compatible months for both
hot and dry events, we have computed the spatial correlation maps between
the monthly SPEI and the monthly HWDI with different time lags (e.g., SPEI
leading). For example, June HWDI was correlated with April SPEI1, SPEI3, and
SPEI6 (not shown); May SPEI1, SPEI3, and SPEI6 (not shown); and June SPEI1
(Fig. 8a), SPEI3 (not shown), and SPEI6 (not shown). The highest
correlations, in terms of both amplitude and spatial extent, have been
obtained for the combination of June HWDI and June SPEI1 (Fig. 8a). This
finding is also confirmed by looking at the correlation coefficient, both
with lag and in phase, between the HWDI index averaged at the country level
(i.e., the time series in Fig. 2a) and different combinations of the monthly
SPEI averaged at the country level (Fig. S4). Also, for the country-averaged
time series, the highest correlation was obtained for June HWDI and June
SPEI1. In terms of spatial extent, the highest correlations (e.g.,
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M40" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.5) have been obtained for the western and southern parts of
the country (Fig. 8a). Nevertheless, a significant correlation between
HWDI and SPEI over these regions does not necessarily imply that each
drought will always co-occur with a heat wave over that region or vice versa.
The conditional probability map for June, which implies the probability of
co-occurrence of both a dry (June SPEI <inline-formula><mml:math id="M41" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) and a hot (June HW <inline-formula><mml:math id="M42" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 1) month, indicates the most prone regions of a combined hot
and dry June are the areas located in the eastern part of the country
(Fig. 9a). For July, the highest correlation has been found also for the
in-phase relationship (i.e., July HW and July SPEI1) (Fig. 8b). Compared to
June, in July the spatial correlations between July HW and July SPEI1 are
significant all over the country, with the highest amplitudes over the
extra-Carpathian regions and over small areas in the northwest.
This dipole-like structure clearly emphasizes the influence of the
Carpathian Mountains on the climate variability of Romania, which is in
agreement with previous studies over this region which have shown that the
Carpathian Mountains play a significant role in the hydroclimatic
variability of the country (Busuioc et al.,
2015; Ionita, 2015). In terms of co-variability, the most prone regions for
a combined hot and dry July are, as in the case of June, the areas located
in the eastern part of the country (Fig. 9b). In August, the highest
correlations, based on both the amplitude and the spatial extent,
have been found between August HWs and August SPEI3 (Figs. 8c and S4). The
correlations between August HWs and August SPEI3 reached values up to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M43" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.7</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
for almost the whole country, with small exceptions in the southeastern
corner of the country. The occurrence of HWs in August seems to be
influenced not only by the hydroclimatic conditions in August, but also by
the previous months. The conditional probability map (Fig. 9c) indicates
that hot and dry events have a higher probability of occurrence compared to
June and July, and the risk of hot and dry events is distributed all over the
country, with small exceptions in the mountain areas (i.e., Apuseni
Mountains and Retezat Mountains). When we look at all the summer months
together, the highest correlations are obtained between JJA HWs and August
SPEI3. The spatial correlation map between JJA HWs and August SPEI3 reaches
values up to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M44" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M45" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.8</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for almost the entire country (Fig. 8d)
and a value of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M46" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.71</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> when we averaged at the country level (Fig. S4). In terms
of co-variability, the most prone regions for combined hot and dry summers
are the areas located in the eastern part of the country (Fig. 9d). When
considering the 1-month lag, there are still some regions showing
significant negative correlations between SPEI and HW, mainly for July HW
and June SPEI1 over the southern part of the country and August HW and July
SPEII1 over the western part of the country (not shown). Although the lagged
correlations are smaller in amplitude compared to the in-phase correlations,
the lagged relationship indicates that there might be some influence of the
drought conditions on the heat waves in the upcoming months, especially in
the case of July and August HWs.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{p}?><fig id="Ch1.F8" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{8}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 8</label><caption><p id="d1e937">Spatial correlation between <bold>(a)</bold> June SPEI1 and June HWDI <bold>(b)</bold> July SPEI1 and July HWDI, <bold>(c)</bold> August SPEI3 and HWDI August, and <bold>(d)</bold> August SPEI3 and JJA HWDI. The regions where the correlations are statistically significant (95 % significance level) are hatched.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022-f08.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{p}?><fig id="Ch1.F9" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{9}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 9</label><caption><p id="d1e960">Conditional probability of occurrence of hot (HW <inline-formula><mml:math id="M47" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) and dry (SPEI <inline-formula><mml:math id="M48" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) events: <bold>(a)</bold> June SPEI1 and June HW, <bold>(b)</bold> July SPEI 1 and July HW, <bold>(c)</bold> August SPEI3 and August HW, and <bold>(d)</bold> August SPEI3 and JJA HW 1981–1990.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022-f09.png"/>

        </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS4">
  <label>3.4</label><title>Extreme heat wave events in Romania and their driving factors</title>
      <p id="d1e1012">The analysis of the temporal variability of the HWDI and AREA (Fig. 2) has
emphasized some extreme HWs for each analyzed month, in terms of
both duration and spatial coverage. Thus, in this sub-section, we make a detailed
analysis of the longest HW for each month, in terms of extremeness (e.g.,
rank maps) and large-scale driving factors. The analysis is focused on three
distinct cases: July 2012, August 2015, and June 2019.</p>
      <p id="d1e1015">July 2012 was marked by persistent heat waves, which have determined
extremely high temperatures at the beginning of the month in the western
part of the country, afterwards extending to all regions, but especially in
the plain and plateau areas (Fig. 10a). In some regions of the country
(e.g., eastern and central part) the duration of the HWs was up to 24 d.
In terms of drought, most of the country was affected by moderate to extreme
drought in July 2012 (Fig. 10b), with small exceptions in the
northwestern part of the country. July 2012 was the hottest month on
record (e.g., over the period 1950–2020) over most of the country (Fig. 10c). In July 2012, 114 meteorological stations through the country recorded
temperatures above 35 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M49" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C  (Dima et al., 2016).
Over the central part of the country, from the south to the north, July 2012
was both hot and dry (Fig. 10d). The peak of the heat waves was recorded in
the first week of the month (Fig. S5). Starting with 2 July,
the atmospheric circulation was characterized by a northeasterly flow,
which led to an advection of warm air masses, generated over Russia (Fig. S6). At the country level, this large-scale atmospheric pattern resulted in
the establishment of an excessive thermal regime and an increase in the
number of hot days (i.e., daily temperatures <inline-formula><mml:math id="M50" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 35 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M51" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C),
especially in the southern and eastern regions (Fig. 10e and S5). Between
7  and 9 July 2012, the daily maximum temperature up to
10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M52" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C was higher, compared to climatology, especially in the
eastern part of the country (Fig. S5f–h). These excessive
temperatures were driven by the persistence of a high-pressure system over
the eastern part of Romania and the presence of an atmospheric blocking
center over Fennoscandia and the western part of Russia (contour lines in
Fig. S6).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F10" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{10}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 10</label><caption><p id="d1e1054"><bold>(a)</bold> HWDI for July 2012; <bold>(b)</bold> SPEI1 for July 2012. <bold>(c)</bold> Top eight ranking of TX90p for July 2012 (first means the hottest (Tx90p) since 1950, second signifies the second hottest, etc., and all ranks <inline-formula><mml:math id="M53" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 8 are shown in white).  <bold>(d)</bold> CHD for June 2012  (the dark red color indicates the grid points affected by a CHD). <bold>(e)</bold> Daily <inline-formula><mml:math id="M54" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (contour lines) and TT850 anomalies (shaded colors) averaged over the period 25–30 July 2012.  Units are as follows: <bold>(a)</bold> days per month; <bold>(e)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M55" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (m) and TT850 (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M56" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C). For <bold>(c)</bold> the analyzed period is 1950–2020.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022-f10.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e1124">The heat wave and drought event observed throughout the summer of 2015
affected a large portion of continental Europe and was one of the most
severe dry and hot summers over the observational period
(Ionita
et al., 2017; Laaha et al., 2017; Van Lanen et al., 2016). Record high
temperatures were observed throughout the whole summer over different parts
of Europe. Extremely high temperatures already started to be recorded in
June 2015 over the Iberian Peninsula, central and eastern France, the
western Alps, and Ukraine. The heat wave and drought conditions extended
towards the central part of Europe in July 2015
(Ionita et al., 2017). By
August 2015, the heat wave moved and continued to develop in central and
eastern Europe, including Romania. For most of the month of August 2015,
Romania was under the influence of extremely high temperatures. The first
heat waves occurred between 3 and 16 June (not shown).
Between 17 and 23 August, a short relief was observed,
with temperatures below the climatological mean (not shown). The second and
most intense heat wave (e.g., in terms of the temperature anomalies) started
to develop on 24 August, reaching its peak at the end of the
month (Fig. S7). The longest heat wave was recorded over the northern and
eastern parts of the country (Fig. 11a). In some regions in the eastern
part of the country, there were up to 24 d which fulfilled the HW
definition. Overall, the drought conditions in August 2015 were not as
intense as in July 2012. Only the northern part of the country experienced
both heat wave and drought at the same time (Fig. 11b and  d). August 2015 was also the hottest month on record (e.g., over the period 1950–2020) in the northern and northeastern parts of the country (Fig. 11c).
The extremely high temperatures recorded, especially in the last week of
August 2015, were mainly driven by the prevailing large-scale circulation.
The two long-lasting heat waves in August 2015 were determined by the
extension of the North African ridge over most of the European continent
(Figs. 11e and  S8). During the peak of the second heat wave (i.e.,
28–31 August 2015) the eastern part of Europe was affected by a persistent
atmospheric blocking system (contour lines in Fig. S8), which was centered
over Romania, and by positive values of the water vapor flux divergence (not
shown). The anomalous <inline-formula><mml:math id="M57" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> center over the eastern part of Europe (Figs. 11e and S8) and the divergent water vapor flux over Romania suggest a
dominant subsidence and adiabatic warming, reduced cloudiness, and increased
incoming solar radiation, thus leading to excessive temperatures over the
affected regions.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F11" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{11}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 11</label><caption><p id="d1e1139"><bold>(a)</bold> HWDI for August 2015. <bold>(b)</bold> SPEI3 for August 2015. <bold>(c)</bold> Top eight ranking of TX90p for August 2015 (first means the hottest (Tx90p) since 1950, second signifies the second hottest, etc., and all ranks <inline-formula><mml:math id="M58" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 8 are shown in white).  <bold>(d)</bold> CHD for August 2015 (the dark red color indicates the grid points affected by a CHD). <bold>(e)</bold> Daily <inline-formula><mml:math id="M59" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (contour lines) and TT850 anomalies (shaded colors) averaged over the period 28–31 August 2015.  Units are as follows: <bold>(a)</bold> days per month; <bold>(e)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M60" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (m) and TT850 (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M61" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C). For <bold>(c)</bold> the analyzed period is 1950–2020.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022-f11.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e1208">For the month of June, the longest and largest (in terms of spatial extent)
HW event was recorded in June 2019 (Fig. 2e–f). According to
Copernicus (<uri>https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-june-2019</uri>, last access: 17 December 2021) June 2019
was the hottest June on record both globally and for Europe, with
central and eastern Europe being particularly warm throughout the whole month. In
June 2019, the northwestern and southeastern parts of Romania were regions the
most affected by extreme temperatures (Fig. 12a and c). Record-breaking temperatures were recorded in the most northern part of the country
as well as in the Dobruja region (Fig. 12c). These record-breaking
temperatures were corroborated with drought conditions (Fig. 12b and  d).
The eastern, central, and southwestern parts of the country were less
affected by extreme temperatures (Fig. 12a and  c), and these regions were
characterized by wet conditions throughout the month (Fig. 12b). The
particular spatial pattern was mainly influenced by the spatial pattern of
the large-scale atmospheric circulation (Fig. 12e). The atmospheric
circulation at the peak of the heat wave event (Figs. S9 and S10) was
characterized by a persistent wave-like pattern extending from the North
Atlantic Ocean towards Eurasia (Figs. 12e and S10). Positive (negative)
geopotential anomalies were observed over eastern Europe (central North
Atlantic and central Siberia), corresponding to the local positive (negative)
temperature anomalies underneath (Figs. 12e and S9). The spatial
structure of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M62" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> field resembles the classic omega blocking circulation
(Fig. S10 – contour lines). This pattern favors the advection of warm air
from the Sahel towards the eastern part of Europe and enhances the incoming
solar radiation, leading to extremely high temperature anomalies underneath
the high-pressure system.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F12" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{12}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 12</label><caption><p id="d1e1226"><bold>(a)</bold> HWDI for June 2019. <bold>(b)</bold> SPEI1 for June 2019. <bold>(c)</bold> Top eight ranking of TX90p for June 2019 (first means the hottest (Tx90p) since 1950, second signifies the second hottest, etc., and all ranks <inline-formula><mml:math id="M63" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 8 are shown in white).  <bold>(d)</bold> CHD for June 2019 (the dark red color indicates the grid points affected by a CHD). <bold>(e)</bold> Daily <inline-formula><mml:math id="M64" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (contour lines) and TT850 anomalies (shaded colors) averaged over the period 10–14 June 2019.   Units are as follows: <bold>(a)</bold> days per month; <bold>(e)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M65" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (m) and TT850 (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M66" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C). For <bold>(c)</bold> the analyzed period is 1950–2020.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022-f12.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e1295">All analyzed extreme HWs in this section were mainly driven by the presence
of a high-pressure system over the analyzed region, during the peak of the
HW event. In order to identify if the presence of a persistent high-pressure
system is a necessary ingredient for all HWs identified throughout the
period 1950–2020, we have computed the composite maps for the years when
the HWDI index (Fig. 2 – left column) was <inline-formula><mml:math id="M67" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 5 d and the
corresponding <inline-formula><mml:math id="M68" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> anomalies and the corresponding wind vectors. We
performed the analysis for each month separately (Fig. 13). Due to the
fact that the relationship between the large-scale atmospheric circulation
and the European hydroclimate was found to be limited due to
non-stationarity issues (Ionita et al.,
2020; Rimbu et al., 2004; Vicente-Serrano and López-Moreno, 2008), we
have also computed the stability maps between the HWDI and the monthly <inline-formula><mml:math id="M69" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.
The aim of the composite map analysis is to analyze the relationship between
the HWDI and the large-scale atmospheric patterns, but this methodology does
not consider whether the relationship between the two variables is stationary in
time or not. In order to overcome the problem of non-stationarity and to
test if the identified relationship between the HWDI and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M70" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is stable over
time, we employed a methodology, namely the stability maps, used for the
monthly to seasonal prediction of the mean runoff of the Elbe River and in
dendroclimatological studies (Ionita et al., 2015;
Nagavciuc et al., 2019).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F13"><?xmltex \currentcnt{13}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 13</label><caption><p id="d1e1338">Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the occurrence of monthly heat waves in Romania. <bold>(a)</bold> The high-composite map of June geopotential height at 500 mb (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M71" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) and the wind vectors at 500 mb corresponding to the cases when the area covered by a heat wave was higher than 20 % of the country (June HW AREA <inline-formula><mml:math id="M72" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 20 %); <bold>(b)</bold> as in <bold>(a)</bold> but for July and <bold>(c)</bold> as in <bold>(a)</bold> but for August. The hatched areas indicate anomalies significant at the 95 % significance level based on a two-tailed <inline-formula><mml:math id="M73" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> test. Units are <inline-formula><mml:math id="M74" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [m].</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022-f13.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e1397">The June composite map of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M75" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> anomalies and the corresponding wind vectors
for years with HWs lasting more than 5 d is characterized by positive
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M76" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> anomalies over the central and eastern parts of Europe and negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M77" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
anomalies over the central North Atlantic Ocean (Fig. 13a). Moreover, HWs
in June, in Romania, are also associated with an increase in the number of
atmospheric blocking days, centered over the southeastern part of Europe
(Fig. 14a). The spatial structure of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M78" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> anomalies, centered over
the eastern part of Europe, leads to the advection of hot and dry air from
the northeastern part of Europe. The large-scale atmospheric circulation
associated with HWs over Romania, in July, is similar to the spatial
structure identified in June, in both the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M79" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> field (Fig. S13b) and in the case of 2D atmospheric blocking (Fig. 14b). In August, the
spatial structure of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M80" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> field, associated with the occurrence of HWs
over Romania, is characterized by a wave-train like pattern of alternating
Z500 anomalies, which extends from the eastern part of the US until Eurasia
(Fig. S13c). Extreme HWs, in August, are associated with a low-pressure
system over the eastern part of the US, followed by positive <inline-formula><mml:math id="M81" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
anomalies over the western part of the central North Atlantic Ocean,
negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M82" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> anomalies centered over the British Isles, and positive <inline-formula><mml:math id="M83" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
anomalies over the central and eastern parts of Europe. This wave-like
pattern suggests a stationary Rossby wave pattern, which is usually
associated with heat waves and droughts over the Eurasian continent
(Bakke
et al., 2020; Barriopedro et al., 2011; Ionita et al., 2012; Schubert et
al., 2014). As in the case of June and July, HWs in August are also
associated with an increased frequency of atmospheric blocking over the
eastern part of Europe (Fig. 14c). The significant relationship between
the HWDI and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M84" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> obtained via the composite map analysis is also confirmed
by the stability maps. June HWDI is stably and positively correlated with
June <inline-formula><mml:math id="M85" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> over the eastern part of Europe, centered over Romania (Fig. 15a). The same pattern can also be observed when we compute the stability
map between July HWDI and July <inline-formula><mml:math id="M86" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (Fig. 15c). In the case of August, the
HWDI is stable and positively correlated with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M87" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> over a region extended
from the North Atlantic basin towards the central and eastern parts of Europe and
negatively correlated with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M88" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> centered over the British Isles and North
Ocean (Fig. 15e). This dipole structure is reminiscent of the east Atlantic
teleconnection pattern, which was found to have a significant influence on
the variability of temperature and precipitation over Europe, throughout the
whole year  (Gao et al., 2017). Based on
the monthly stability maps identified in Fig. 15, we defined a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M89" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> index
averaged over the stable regions (black squares in Fig. 15a, c, and
e) to analyze the interannual variability of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M90" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> over these regions
in a long-term context. This analysis was motivated by the fact that it has
been suggested that the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M91" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> over the central and western parts of Europe has
increased recently, leading to an increase in the frequency of HWs over these
regions  (Porebska and Zdunek, 2013; Tomczyk and
Bednorz, 2016). The June <inline-formula><mml:math id="M92" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> index exhibits strong interannual variability over
the last 70 years, with the highest amplitudes since the beginning of the 1990s
(Fig. 15b). Notably, the highest value of this index was recorded in 2019,
which is also the month with the longest June heat wave (Fig. 2a). Over the
period 1990–2020 there is a significant increasing trend in the June <inline-formula><mml:math id="M93" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
averaged over the eastern part of Europe, a trend which closely resembles
the one observed for the June HWDI (Fig. 2a). The results of the trend
analysis for each month and each analyzed period are given in Table S3. As
in the case of June, the July <inline-formula><mml:math id="M94" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> index also exhibits strong interannual
variability over the last 70 years and a significant increasing trend from the 1990s onward (Fig. 15d). The highest values of this index were
recorded in 1954, 1987, 1988, 2007, 2012, and 2015. July 2012 is
also the month with the longest July heat wave over the analyzed period
(Fig. 2c). The time series of the August <inline-formula><mml:math id="M95" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> index also exhibits strong
interannual variability over the last 70 years and a significant increasing
trend over the period 1990–2020 (Fig. 15f). The highest value of this
index was recorded in 1952, 1962, 1992, 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2019. August 2015 is also the month with the longest August heat wave
(Fig. 2c). Overall, the time series of the monthly <inline-formula><mml:math id="M96" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> presents a strong
interannual variability and a significantly increasing trend starting with
the beginning of the 1990s, which mirrors the trends observed in the
monthly HWDI (Fig. 2). For July and August, the trend of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M97" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> indices
is significant for both analyzed periods (i.e., 1950–2020 and 1990–2020), while for June the trend is significant only when we consider the
1990–2020 period (Table S3).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F14"><?xmltex \currentcnt{14}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 14</label><caption><p id="d1e1635">Frequency of the 2D atmospheric blocking associated with the occurrence of monthly heat waves in the central part of Europe. <bold>(a)</bold> The high composite map of June 2D atmospheric blocking corresponding to the cases when the area covered by a heat wave was higher than 20 % of the country (June HW AREA <inline-formula><mml:math id="M98" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 20 %); <bold>(b)</bold> as in <bold>(a)</bold> but for July and <bold>(c)</bold> as in <bold>(a)</bold> but for August. The hatched areas indicate anomalies significant at the 95 % significance level based on a two-tailed <inline-formula><mml:math id="M99" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> test. The unit is days per month.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022-f14.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F15" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{15}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 15</label><caption><p id="d1e1676">Stability maps of the correlation between monthly HWDI and monthly <inline-formula><mml:math id="M100" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> over the period 1950–2020 (left column) and the time series of monthly <inline-formula><mml:math id="M101" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> averaged over the black box in <bold>(a)</bold>, <bold>(c)</bold>, and <bold>(e)</bold>.   <bold>(a)</bold> Stability map for June. <bold>(b)</bold> The time series of June <inline-formula><mml:math id="M102" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> averaged overt the black box in <bold>(a)</bold>.   <bold>(b)</bold> Stability map for July. <bold>(d)</bold> The time series of July <inline-formula><mml:math id="M103" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> averaged overt the black box in <bold>(c)</bold>.   <bold>(e)</bold> Stability map for August and <bold>(f)</bold> the time series of August <inline-formula><mml:math id="M104" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> averaged over the black box in <bold>(e)</bold>.   In <bold>(a)</bold>, <bold>(c)</bold>, and <bold>(e)</bold> the regions where the correlation is positive for at least 80 % of the 31-year windows are shaded with dark red (95 %), red (90 %), orange (85 %), and yellow (80 %). The corresponding regions where the correlation is significant, stable, and negative are shaded with dark blue (95 %), blue (90 %), green (85 %), and light green (80 %). The green (red) lines in <bold>(b)</bold>, <bold>(d)</bold>, and <bold>(f)</bold> indicate the linear trend line of the monthly <inline-formula><mml:math id="M105" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> over the period 1950–2020 (1990–2020).</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=455.244094pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1347/2022/nhess-22-1347-2022-f15.png"/>

        </fig>

</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4" sec-type="conclusions">
  <label>4</label><title>Conclusions</title>
      <p id="d1e1812">The main findings of this study indicate that regional extreme
temperatures over Romania follow the same path as the ones observed at
continental and global scales, namely the summer temperature extremes have
become more frequent and their amplitude has increased, especially over the
last 2 decades. The increase in the frequency and magnitude of summer
temperature extremes, over Romania, has been occurring at the same time as
an overall drying trend, especially over the eastern part of the country.
However, the changes in the HWs over Romania also present a
decadal/multidecadal component, which is in agreement with previous studies
at the European level as well at more regional spatial scales, which have shown
that the summer temperature is strongly influenced by the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation (Della-Marta
et al., 2007; Ionita et al., 2013). The  evolution of the HWDI time
series can be regarded as a combination between multi-decadal variability
and anthropogenic induced climate change.</p>
      <p id="d1e1815">The length, spatial extent, and frequency of HWs in Romania have increased
significantly over the last 70 years, for all summer months, with an
increase in the heat wave duration of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M106" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.52 d per decade (in
June), <inline-formula><mml:math id="M107" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.31 d per decade (in July), and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M108" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.43 d per decade (in August). After the 1990s the rate of increase in the
frequency, length, and spatial extent has significantly accelerated, reaching
unprecedented length and spatial extent after 2000 until the end of the
analyzed period. Overall, the most active decades, in terms of HWs, were
1951–1960, 2001–2010, and 2011–2020, while the longest and most
extensive (in terms of spatial extent) HWs were observed in July 2012, August 2015, and June 2019. Over the decade 2021–2020 there were up to 24 HWs
recorded throughout the summer season. In terms of drought variability and
trends, significant changes in the drought conditions (i.e., significant
drying trend) have been observed over the eastern part of the country in
August for SPEI3 and July for SPEI1, and the driest decade has been over the
period 2011–2020.</p>
      <p id="d1e1839">The strongest correlation between hot and dry events has been observed for
an “in-phase” relationship, indicating that for our analyzed region the
soil-moisture memory does not play a significant role in the occurrence of
heat waves throughout the summer months. Overall, there is an increase
probability of co-occurrence of hot and dry events in the eastern part
of the country, especially in June and July. Although the significant
correlation between SPEI and extreme temperatures throughout concurrent
months does not provide any information about the effect of antecedent drying
on the occurrence of HWs, and thus it does not have a predictive skill, it does
indicate a strong land–atmosphere coupling over the analyzed region. A
lagged relationship has been observed only for 1-month lag (SPEI leading)
over the southern (in July) and western parts of the country (in August).
This is in agreement with recent studies
(Stegehuis et al., 2021), which have shown
that the antecedent soil moisture has a significant influence on the summer
HWs, especially over the western part of Europe, whereas over the eastern
parts of Europe the large-scale drivers explain the occurrence of extreme
temperatures. The strongest changes, in terms of frequency and amplitude of
hot and dry summers, were observed in the extra-Carpathian Mountain regions
(e.g., south and southeastern part of Romania), mainly because the
Carpathian Mountains act as a barrier for the Atlantic air masses, limiting
their oceanic influences on the western and central parts of the country,
which experience on average milder summers and heavier rainfalls, while the
eastern part of the country is prone to rainfall deficit and higher
temperatures, due to advection of hot and dry air either from the east or
from the south.</p>
      <p id="d1e1842">The occurrence of HWs in Romania has been related to anticyclonic conditions
and a higher frequency of blocking situations corroborated with daily
maximum temperature anomalies up to 10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M109" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C and with water vapor
flux divergence, which showed a positive anomalous signal during hot and
dry events. This is in agreement with previous studies for other regions (e.g.,
western part of Europe), which have shown that HWs tend to occur under the
influence of anticyclonic circulation, which is conducive to
intensification of the radiation flux and cloudless weather
(Porebska and Zdunek, 2013;
Tomczyk et al., 2017; Tomczyk and Bednorz, 2016). The occurrence of HWs over
the analyzed region is stably correlated with the geopotential height
centered over Romania and in the neighboring regions. The geopotential
height also shows an increase in amplitude after the beginning of the 1990s,
which follows the same temporal variability as the HWDI index and the AREA
index, thus supporting the finding that the increase in the number of HWs
over the last 2 decades could be explained, at least partially, by the
increase in the regional geopotential height. Similar results have also been
found for the central and western parts of Europe
(Porebska and Zdunek, 2013; Tomczyk and Bednorz,
2016). In their study,  Porebska and Zdunek (2013) have shown
that heat waves over central Europe were often associated with an
increased frequency of blocking situations over the Atlantic Ocean and
eastern Europe. Similar results have been found by
Tomczyk and Bednorz (2016), which have shown that
the occurrence of HWs in the central part of Europe was mainly driven with
positive anomalies of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M110" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> over the analyzed region. Thus, a possible
explanation regarding the increase in the frequency of HWs in Romania, over
the past 2 decades, might be related to more frequent blocking situations
and an increase in the geopotential height over the analyzed region.</p>
      <p id="d1e1865">Finally, we conclude that the analysis of both hot and dry events in
connection with the large-scale atmospheric drivers provides a useful tool
in order to find a plausible physical mechanism which can explain the changes
in the frequency and amplitude of these extreme events. Our findings are in
line with the recently published IPPC report
(IPCC, 2021), which states that there is
an overall global increase in the frequency of heat waves. Thus, our analysis
of the variability and changes in heat waves and droughts and their combined
effect could be used to improve adaptation strategies to extreme events
and to improve resilience plans at the country level.</p>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><notes notes-type="dataavailability"><title>Data availability</title>

      <p id="d1e1873">The data that support the
findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon
reasonable request.</p>
  </notes><app-group>
        <supplementary-material position="anchor"><p id="d1e1876">The supplement related to this article is available online at: <inline-supplementary-material xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022-supplement" xlink:title="pdf">https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022-supplement</inline-supplementary-material>.</p></supplementary-material>
        </app-group><notes notes-type="authorcontribution"><title>Author contributions</title>

      <p id="d1e1885">VN, PS, and MI designed the study,
wrote the paper, and interpreted the results. All authors (i.e., VN, PS, and MI)
contributed equally to the article.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="competinginterests"><title>Competing interests</title>

      <p id="d1e1891">The contact author has declared that neither they nor their co-authors have any competing interests.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="disclaimer"><title>Disclaimer</title>

      <p id="d1e1897">Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.</p>
  </notes><ack><title>Acknowledgements</title><p id="d1e1903">Viorica Nagavciuc was supported by a grant of the Ministry of Research,
Innovation and Digitization, CNCS/CCCDI–UEFISCDI, project number
PN-III-P1-1.1-PD-2019-0469, within PNCDI III. Monica Ionita and Patrick Scholz are supported by the Helmholtz Association through the joint
“Changing Earth – Sustaining our Future” (PoF IV) program of the AWI.
Funding by the Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM, the AWI Strategy Fund
Project – PalEX, and the project S2: Improved parameterisations and numerics
in climate models, of the collaborative Research Center TRR181 “Energy
Transfer in the Atmosphere and Ocean” (DFG) – project number 274762653 is
gratefully acknowledged.</p></ack><notes notes-type="financialsupport"><title>Financial support</title>

      <p id="d1e1908">The article processing charges for this open-access publication were covered by the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI).</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="reviewstatement"><title>Review statement</title>

      <p id="d1e1914">This paper was edited by Joaquim G. Pinto and reviewed by four anonymous referees.</p>
  </notes><ref-list>
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