The water levels of lakes along the eastern route of the
South-to-North Water Diversion Project (ER-SNWDP) are expected to rise
significantly and subsequently affect the processes of flood control and
drainage in corresponding lake basins. However, few studies have focused on
the impacts of inter-basin water diversion on the flood control and drainage
of water-receiving areas at the lake basin scale. Using MIKE software, this
paper builds a coupled hydrodynamic model to address the existing literature
gap regarding the impacts of inter-basin water diversion on the processes of
flood control and drainage in a water-receiving lake basin, and it considers
the many types of hydraulic structures in the model. First, a flood
simulation model was constructed to simulate the complex movement of water
transferred by the ER-SNWDP, by waterlogging in the lakeside area around
Nansi Lake (NL), and water in NL and its tributaries. The ER-SNWDP was also
considered in the model. Second, the model was calibrated and verified with
measurement data, and the results showed that the model was efficient and
presented a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) between 0.65 and
0.99. Third, the processes of flooding and draining in the lakeside area of
NL were simulated under different water diversion and precipitation values.
Finally, the impacts of the emergency operations of the ER-SNWDP on flood
control and waterlogging drainage in the lakeside area of NL were analysed
based on the results from the proposed model, and some implications are
presented for the integrated management of inter-basin water diversion and
affected lakes.
Introduction
Inter-basin water diversion is a useful approach to solving the spatial
unevenness of water resources; however, it makes the water cycle of the
water-receiving area more complicated and brings a great challenge to the
integrated water management of the water-receiving area and water diversion
project (Matete and Hassan, 2006; Webber et al., 2017). The key to the
long-term healthy operation of the inter-basin water transfer project is to
clarify the influence of inter-basin water transfer on the water-receiving
area. In recent decades, several authors have revealed and discussed the
impacts of inter-basin water transfer on water-receiving areas from many
perspectives, which mainly include water quality, water resources, and water
ecosystems, and some suggestions regarding the scientific management of
water-receiving areas and the water diversion project were proposed (Cole et
al., 2011; Emanuel et al., 2015; Zhuang, 2016). A large quantity of transferred water not
only changes the water quality, water environment, and other hydrological
characteristics of water-receiving areas, but also impacts flood control and
waterlogging drainage in some water-receiving areas (Gupta and Zaag, 2008;
Liang et al., 2012). Flooding and waterlogging are two of the main natural
disasters in terms of losses of human life and economic damage, and flood
control and drainage are the top priorities of watershed management (Arrighi
et al., 2013; He et al., 2018). However, to the best of our knowledge, there are very few
studies on the impacts of inter-basin water transfer on flood control and
drainage in water-receiving areas from a watershed perspective.
The eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (ER-SNWDP)
links Gaoyou Lake, Hongze Lake, Luoma Lake, Nansi Lake (NL), and Dongping
Lake with 13 pump stations that transfer water from downstream of the Yangtze
River to the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain and Shandong Peninsula (Fig. 1a and b).
According to the comprehensive plan of the SNWDP, (1) the first planning
phase (before 2030) of the eastern route is designed to transfer
8.9 billion m3 of water annually, and approximately
7 billion m3 is expected to be consumed in the above five lake
basins and route; (2) the water diversion period covers the non-flood season
(October to the following May), and the water diversion ceases for the rest
of the time (Bureau of South to North Water Transfer of Planning, Designing
and Management, Ministry of Water Resources, 2003). Lake basins along the
ER-SNWDP, which are also called water-receiving areas for large quantities of
water, are consumed in these basins during the water transfer period. As
water-receiving areas and transmitting channels of the ER-SNWDP, these five
lakes are used to store and regulate water resources, and the water levels of
the five lakes are significantly increased when the project is operating. The
increased lake level impedes flood control and waterlogging drainage in the
water-receiving lake basin, especially in low-lying lake basins.
In addition, Shandong Peninsula has suffered from severe drought and the
water supply cannot meet the water demand even in the flood season (June to
October) for 4 consecutive years since the eastern route began operation in
2013. Emergency water diversion (i.e., water transfer through the water
diversion project in flood seasons to alleviate water shortages in
water-receiving areas) has been performed many times to supply water to
Shandong Peninsula. Furthermore, considering the rigorous demand for water
resources caused by rapid socio-economic development, more frequent water
transfers are expected in the flood season (June to October) (Guo et al.,
2018). Meanwhile, extreme rainfall events caused by climate changes have
increased in eastern China (R. Liu et al., 2015). Thus, the probability of
rainstorms during the water diversion period in these lake basins will
increase. To strengthen the scientific scheduling of flood control projects
in water-receiving areas and water diversion projects, it is necessary to
clarify the influence law of water diversion on flood control and drainage in
these lake basins.
Based on data availability and regional distribution, the NL Basin (NLB),
which is a flood-prone area, was chosen as the research area in this study
(Fig. 2). The reason why we chose the NLB is that NL is an important storage
node of the ER-SNWDP, as NL is the largest freshwater lake in northern China
and has the largest water storage capacity among the lakes along the ER-SNWDP
(Zhang, 2009). In addition, the NLB has a history of frequent flooding and
waterlogging disasters due to the low drainage capacity in the geomorphic
low-lying area around NL (i.e., lakeside area). NL is a storage pond of the
ER-SNWDP, the flow of water transferred into NL is
200 m3s-1, and the outflow is
100 m3s-1. According to the overall plan of the SNWDP, the
water level of the upper lake is expected to rise by 50 cm, and that
of the lower lake is expected to rise by 70 cm during the project
operation period. A large amount of water diversion has a significant impact
on the hydrological situation of NL. The impacts have instigated several
studies that aimed to understand the ER-SNWDP effect on the NLB, mainly
focusing on environmental and water resource management (Ma et al., 2006; Wu
et al., 2011; Zhang, 2009; Zhao et al., 2017). The lake level increased by
the ER-SNWDP will decrease the drainage efficiency of pump stations, hinder
the flood discharge of rivers in the lakeside area, and then influence the
flood control and waterlogging drainage of the NLB. However, the impacts of
water diversion on flood control and waterlogging drainage in the NLB are
relatively unexplored. A gap in assessing the impacts of inter-basin water
diversion on flood inundation in the NLB still exists. An integrated model
that could explicitly simulate the impacts of water transfer project
operation on the spatiotemporal aspects of inundation is one of the necessary
tools that can help bridge this gap.
This study aims to bridge the knowledge gap on the impacts of water diversion
by the ER-SNWDP on flood control and inundation in the NLB. For this purpose,
the following were set as the two main objectives of this study: (1) to
develop one-dimensional and two-dimensional hydrodynamic models that can
simulate both the ER-SNWDP operations and its impacts on the flooding and
waterlogging processes within the NLB, and (2) to clarify the impacts of the
ER-SNWDP on flood control and waterlogging drainage in the NLB under
different rainstorm events. More specifically, the following sub-objectives
will be addressed in this paper: (1) develop a model that integrates MIKE 11,
MIKE 21, and MIKE FLOOD to
simulate the flooding and waterlogging processes in the NLB under the
condition of emergency water diversion by the ER-SNWDP, (2) validate the
adequacy of the model in simulating flooding and waterlogging processes in
the NLB, (3) simulate flooding and waterlogging processes with the effects of
the water diversion project under rainstorms with different return periods,
and (4) perform a detailed analysis of the impacts of the inter-basin water
transfer on flood control and waterlogging drainage in NLB.
Sketch of the eastern route of the South-North Water
Transfer Project (a). Annual rainfall contours and lakes along the route (b).
Literature reviewImpacts of inter-basin water diversion on water-receiving
regions
Due to the uneven spatial distribution of water resources and regional
socio-economic development, the demand for water in certain regions far
exceeds the available water amount, thereby resulting in an increasingly
serious imbalance between water demand and supply (Cai and Ringler, 2007; Hu
et al., 2010). As the most effective and direct method of resolving the water
resource shortage problem, inter-basin water diversion projects have been
widely applied in water-deficient areas around the world (de Andrade et al.,
2011; Wang et al., 2014; Zhang et al., 2015). According to data released by
the International Commission on Irrigation & Drainage (ICID)
(2005), the total annual
amount of water transferred by water diversion projects around the world is
540 billion m3, which accounts for approximately 14 % of the
world's annual water withdrawals. By 2025, annual water diversion is expected
to reach 940 billion m3. In water supply and receiving areas,
inter-basin water transfer projects significantly affect hydrological
elements, such as water quantity, water quality, the water environment, and
flood disasters. A full understanding of these impacts is key to the
scientific management and long-term operation of inter-basin water diversion
and represents the most popular global topic in water resource planning and
management research (Aron et al., 1977; Davies et al., 1992; Khan et al.,
1999; Liu and Zheng, 2002). Zhang et al. (2015) summarized relevant studies
on inter-basin water transfer from 1991 to 2014 and noted that the effects on
the hydrological environment caused by China's SNWDP and the corresponding
long-term monitoring and protection policy for this project represent the
most important current issues.
Current research on the hydrological effects caused by inter-basin water
transfer mainly focuses on the following aspects. (1) For groundwater,
Kundell (1988) argues that a large amount of imported water significantly
increases the amount of available water and directly participates in the
water cycle in water-receiving regions, which has a positive effect on the
water environment, groundwater exploitation, and wetland restoration.
Relevant studies have indicated that a large amount of imported water can
effectively alleviate the problem of decreased groundwater levels and ground
subsidence caused by the perennial over-extraction of groundwater in selected
areas (Larson et al., 2001; Liu and Zheng, 2002; Wang et al., 2014). Based on
a large hydrological distribution model, Ye et al. (2014) evaluated the
effect of the middle route of the SNWDP on the groundwater level of the Haihe
basin. The results showed that although imported water cannot change the
decreasing trend of the groundwater level in the water-receiving area, it can
significantly reduce the rate of decrease. (2) Water quality is one of the
most important factors underlying the success of inter-basin water transfer
projects. Scholars have simulated and evaluated the effects of inter-basin
water transfer projects on water quality in water supply and receiving areas.
Imported water dilutes the concentration of nutrients, improves the ratio of
runoff and pollution in the receiving area, and subsequently improves the
water quality. However, inter-basin water transfer projects might also
transfer pollutants from the water supply area or river basin along the water
diversion line into water-receiving regions, thus worsening the water quality
(Hu et al., 2008; Karamouz et al., 2010; Tang et al., 2014; Welch et al.,
1992; Zhai et al., 2010). The Chicago inter-basin water diversion project,
which uses the Lake Michigan basin as its source, has received criticism due
to its chronic exposure risk of organic pollutants (Rasmussen et al., 2014).
(3) Inter-basin water transfer brings water from the water-supply area to the
water-receiving area through the water transmission channel, which is not
conducive to flood control in water-receiving areas and water transmission
channels. Wang et al. (2013) studied the influence of an inter-basin water
transfer project on hydraulic parameters during the flood season in a
water-supply area. Based on a two-dimensional mathematical model, Sun et
al. (2008) used the Anyang River basin, which intersects with the middle
route of the SNWTP, as an example to study the influence of the water
diversion project on flooding in the river basin that the project passes
through. As the storage node of the water diversion project, the large amount
of water transferred into the lake significantly changes the interaction law
between the water body of the lake basin and the water in the lake
tributaries, which subsequently affects the flood control and drainage of the
lake basin. However, few quantitative studies have focused on this issue.
Simulation of flooding and waterlogging disasters in a basin
Simulating the flooding and waterlogging processes based on a mathematical
model is an important method for analysing flooding and waterlogging
characteristics and assessing the flooding and waterlogging disaster risk of
a basin; this simulation is also an effective tool for planning the
engineering layout of flooding and waterlogging control engineering (Dutta et
al., 2015; Q. Liu et al., 2015; Wang et al., 2018). The early flooding and
waterlogging simulations of a basin are mainly based on hydrological models,
including the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) (Lee and Heaney, 2003),
Model for Urban Storm water Improvement Conceptualisation (MUSIC) (Dotto et
al., 2011; Hamel and Fletcher, 2014), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
(Dixon and Earls, 2012), and MIKE-SHE (Vrebos et al., 2014), among others.
However, hydrological models only simulate the flood-routing process
according to the water balance equation and are unable to display the spatial
distribution of flood movement. In addition, these models cannot accurately
simulate the drainage process of sluice, dam, pumping station, and pipeline
hydraulic structures. A hydrodynamic model simulates water routing by solving
the Saint-Venant equations, which can accurately reflect the movement of
water on a plane and in various hydraulic
structures. With improvements in computer processing speed and the
development of spatial digital elevation information, hydrodynamic models
have gradually become an important tool for flood simulations (Moel et al.,
2015). Hsu et al. (2000) built a waterlogging simulation model by coupling
the SWMM model with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and simulated the
rainstorm waterlogging in Taipei. Bisht et al. (2016) combined the SWMM with
the MIKE URBAN and MIKE 21 models to simulate waterlogging in West Bengal,
India. Li et al. (2016) established one-dimensional and two-dimensional
coupled hydrodynamic models of Taining County in China based on the MIKEFLOOD
model and simulated and analysed the flooding and waterlogging risks in the
region. The MIKE 11 and MIKE 21 hydrodynamic models can simulate the
influence of a variety of hydraulic structures on the water flow movement
process, and the one-dimensional and two-dimensional models can describe this
coupling in different ways. Therefore, this model has been applied to
simulate the flow movement of a variety of water bodies, including rivers,
lakes, flood water on the ground, and estuaries (Karim et al., 2016; Quan,
2014; Zolghadr et al., 2010).
Research area and data sourcesResearch area
NL (34∘27′–35∘20′ N,
116∘34′–117∘21′ E) is composed of four consecutive
lakes (i.e., Nanyang Lake (NY), Dushan Lake, Zhaoyang Lake, and Weishan Lake
(WS) – Fig. 2) and is a typical large and shallow lake, with an area of
1266 km2 and an average depth of only 1.5 m (An and Li,
2009). To manage flooding in this basin, a pivotal project composed of a dam
and sluices (Erji Dam – ED) was constructed in the middle of NL, which
divides the lake into an upper lake and lower lake. The sluices of the ED
control the flood discharge of the upper lake, and the Hanzhuang sluice and
Linjia sluice control the flood discharge of the lower lake. The NLB is
located in the Yi–Shu–Si River system of the Huaihe River basin, with an
area of 31 700 km2. The lakeside area refers to the area with a
ground elevation (above sea level) below 36.79 m around the lake, and
the ground slope in this area is between 0.0029 and 0.0057∘ (Tian et
al., 2013; Wang et al., 2010). A total of 53 rivers flow into NL, and 11 of
them have a drainage area greater than 1000 km2. Due to the low
height and gentle slope of the riverbed, the rivers in the lakeside area have
strong interactions with NL. Flood control embankments have been built on
both sides of the main inflow channels and around NL to prevent flooding from
entering the lakeside area. Due to the low-lying terrain and the construction
of flood control embankments, waterlogging in lakeside areas cannot drain
into rivers and NL. The waterlogged water in the lakeside area is mainly
pumped into rivers and NL through pumping stations. However, the existing
pumping stations in this region cannot resist rainstorm waterlogging every 5
years, and some pumping stations cannot resist rainstorm waterlogging every 3
years. When encountering heavy rainstorms, the water cannot be discharged in
time; therefore, the NLB is historically known as a flood-prone area.
Location of the study area, with the positions of the rainfall and
water level gauges, rivers, and hydraulic projects considered in the river
system and a topographic map of the NLB. The area surrounded by the black
line is the lakeside area, which is defined according to the suggestion of
the Planning and Design Institute of the Huaihe Basin Hydraulic Management
Bureau in Shandong Province, China.
The ER-SNWDP transfers water from Yangzhou to NL and is divided into two
sections in the NLB: water entering the lower lake at the Hanzhuang sluice
(HS) and the Linjia dam sluice (LS). A pumping station was built at the
secondary dam to lift water from the lower lake to the upper lake. The
Changgou pumping station is built 24 km south of the Liangji River
estuary in the upper lake to transfer water to Shandong Peninsula. According
to the first phase planning of the ER-SNWDP, the discharge that enters the
lower lake is 200 m3s-1, and 5/8 of this amount is pumped
into the upper lake. When the water diversion project is running, the water
level (with respect to mean sea level) of the lower lake reaches
32.8 m, which is 0.70 m higher than the mean annual water
level. The project transfers water from the upper lake to the north at a flow
rate of 100 m3s-1. The water level of the upper lake
maintains a normal storage level of 34 m, which is 0.48 m
higher than the mean annual water level.
Data sources
The data sources for this study include terrain, hydrological,
meteorological, and hydraulic engineering data from the NLB and the
engineering layout and operation data of the ER-SNWDP. (1) The digital
elevation model (DEM) and river channel bathymetry were supplied by the
Planning and Design Institute of the Huaihe Basin Hydraulic Management Bureau
in Shandong Province, China. The lakeside area of NL is also provided by the
Planning and Design Institute. The DEM of the lakeside area and NL in 2013
was derived from 1:7000 topographic maps, and the river channel bathymetry
of all rivers simulated in the one-dimensional model was reflected by
550 cross sections separated at distances between 500 and 1000 m.
(2) The hydrological data originated from the Shandong Provincial Hydrology
Bureau. These data mainly include the discharge processes of typical floods
in the upper boundaries of the rivers and daily rainfall records at six
rainfall stations: Huayu (HY), Liangshanzha (LSZ), Wanglu (WL), Wanggudui
(WGD), Wangzhong (WZ), and Xuecheng (XC). Each station has daily
precipitation records covering approximately 30 to 50 years. The daily water
level records of four stations (NY, Makou (MK), ED, and WS; shown in Fig. 2),
were also supplied. (3) The meteorological data were downloaded from the
National Meteorological Scientific Data Sharing Service Platform
(http://data.cma.cn/, last access: 10 December 2018), and the data
include the daily records of numerous meteorological parameters, including
the wind field and evapotranspiration information. (4) The hydraulic
engineering data, including the technical parameters of sluices, pumping
stations, and levees in the NLB, were supplied by the Planning and Design
Institute of the Huaihe Basin Hydraulic Management Bureau in Shandong
Province, China. These data include the location and drainage capabilities of
the pump stations, the locations and sizes of the flood control embankments,
and the hydraulic parameters of the sluices. (5) The engineering data of the
ER-SNWDP were supplied by the Planning and Design Institute of the Huaihe
Basin Hydraulic Management Bureau in Shandong Province, China.
Research framework of the inter-basin water diversion influence on
the flood control and waterlogging drainage of lakes along the route.
MethodologyResearch framework
To quantitatively study the impact of the water diversion project on flood
control and drainage in the NLB, a hydrodynamic model of waterlogging in
lakeside areas of NL was constructed based on MIKE software with
consideration of the ER-SNWDP. This model includes a one-dimensional model to
simulate flood routing in the river that flows into NL (MIKE 11) and a
two-dimensional model to simulate the evolution of plane flow in the lakeside
area of NL (MIKE 21). Different hydraulic structures are set up in the model
to simulate the flood control and drainage processes of sluices, dams, pumps,
and other hydraulic structures in the research area and the water lifting
process of the ER-SNWDP pumping station. Coupling of the one-dimensional and
two-dimensional models is performed by reasonable links to reflect the
interaction among NL, tributary rivers, and the lakeside area. The
established model is used to simulate the waterlogging process in the
lakeside area under different scenarios. According to the results of the
calculation, the influence law of the SNWDP on waterlogging in the lakeside
area of NL is analysed. Finally, related suggestions for balancing the water
diversion and waterlogging risk are proposed. Figure 3 illustrates the
research framework of this paper.
One-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the river network
A total of 53 tributary rivers are located around NL, and they represent the
key to studying the influence of water diversion on waterlogging in the
lakeside area for accurately simulating the flood evolution and interaction
between flood evolution and the high water level of NL. Therefore, a
one-dimensional mathematical model (MIKE 11) was used to simulate flood
routing. The control equation of the model is the Saint-Venant equation
(Abbott, 1979), which is composed of a continuity
equation and momentum equation.
Continuity equation:
B=∂Z∂T+∂Q∂x=q.
Momentum equation:
∂Q∂t+∂∂XαQ2A+gA∂z∂x+gQQC2AR=0,
where x and t denote the spatial and temporal coordinates, respectively;
A represents the cross-sectional area; Q and z denote the discharge and
water level of the cross section, respectively; q represents the lateral
inflow; R represents the hydraulic radius; C represents the Chezy
coefficient; a represents the momentum correction factor; and g denotes
the gravitational acceleration. The Abbott–Ionescu 6 implicit difference
method is used to solve the equation.
First, we generalized the river network by considering the data and
computational efficiency. This river network primarily contains 11 rivers,
with drainage areas greater than 1000 km2. A total of 550 cross
sections were input into the river network model to reflect the changes in
river topography, with adjacent sections spaced approximately 1000 m
apart. We generalized the drainage pump stations in the lakeside area of NL.
A total of 1000 draining pump stations are used to drain waterlogged water
from the lakeside area to rivers and NL, and the model generalized the pump
stations according to the distribution of each pump station on both sides of
the rivers. The basic principle is to ensure that the total drainage
discharge remains the same, with the generalized pumping stations along both
sides of the river evenly distributed for a total of 41 generalized pumping
stations. Finally, the boundary conditions of the model were set. The upper
boundary of the model inputs a discharge hydrograph of the upstream
hydrological station of each river. As the lower boundary, the water level of
the estuary is based on NL, which is simulated by the two-dimensional model.
Two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of NL and the lakeside area
The MIKE 21 hydrodynamic model was used to simulate the water movement in NL
and the waterlogging evolution in the lakeside area. The model area includes
NL and the lakeside area around the lake (Fig. 2). Because the
one-dimensional model is adopted to simulate the rivers around the lake, the
area of the rivers is removed from the two-dimensional model. The
two-dimensional model is based on the Reynolds average stress equation of a
three-dimensional incompressible fluid, which is subject to the Boussinesq
hypothesis and the hydrostatic pressure hypothesis (Boussinesq, 1872), and
the control equations used in this model are given as follows.
Continuity equation:
∂h∂t+∂hu¯∂x+∂hv¯∂y=hS.
Momentum equation in the x direction:
∂hu¯∂t+∂hu¯2∂x+∂hvu¯∂y=fv¯h-gh∂η∂x-hρ0∂pa∂x-gh22ρ0∂ρ∂x+τsxρ0-τbxρ0-1ρ∂sxx∂x+∂sxy∂x+∂∂xhTxx+∂∂xhTxy+husS.
Momentum equation in the y direction:
∂hv¯∂t+∂hv¯2∂y+∂huv¯∂x=fu¯h-gh∂η∂y-hρ0∂pa∂y-gh22ρ0∂ρ∂y+τsyρ0-τbyρ0-1ρ0∂syx∂y+∂syy∂x+∂∂xhTxy+∂∂yhTyy+hvsS,
where x, y, and z are Cartesian coordinates; t denotes the temporal
coordinates; η represents the bottom elevation of the river; d
represents the depth of the water; h=d+η represents the total head of
the water; u, v, and w represent the velocity components in the x,
y, and z directions, respectively; pa represents the local
atmospheric pressure; ρ represents the density of water; ρ0
represents the reference water density; f=2Ωsinϕ represents a
Coriolis parameter; fv¯ and fu¯ represent the acceleration
caused by the Earth's rotation; Sxx, Sxy, Syx, and Syy
represent the components of the radiation stress tensor; Txx, Txy,
Tyx, and Tyy represent the horizontal viscous stresses; S
represents the magnitude of the discharge due to point sources; and
(us,vs) denotes the velocity by which the water is
discharged into the ambient water.
The total area of the two-dimensional model is approximately
4750 km2, including NL (1266 km2), the lakeside area
(3696 km2) shown in Fig. 2, and removes the area of the rivers
simulated by the one-dimensional model, with both sides of the river
embankment and the 36.79 m contour line as the outer boundaries of
the model. Dikes were set up on both sides of the river around NL and at the
ED to simulate the flood control effect of levees. Sources were added to
simulate the water transfer process of the ER-SNWDP. When the model is
running, the rainfall processes of the HY, LSZ, WL, WGD, XC, and WZ rainfall
stations in the research area are input.
Waterlogging simulation model of NL and the lakeside area when
considering the SNWDP
The MIKE FLOOD model is used to couple the one-dimensional and
two-dimensional models, and the specific process is described as follows.
(1) A lateral link is applied to connect the lakeside area and the
tributaries of NL to simulate the flood exchange between the lakeside area
and tributaries, and (2) a standard link is applied to connect the into-lake
rivers and NL to reflect the influence of the lake level height in blocking
the drainage of into-lake rivers. A total of 22 lateral connections and 52
standard connections are present in the coupling model.
Calibration and validation of the coupling model
The model is calibrated and validated using two actual floods that occurred
in July 2007 and July 2008 in the NLB. Figure 4 shows the simulated and
measured water levels at four stations: NY, MK, ED, and WS in NL. Overall,
the measured water level process shows good agreement with the simulated
water level process, and the arrival of the simulated flood peak is
consistent with that of the measured data. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency
(NSE) coefficient, which was proposed by Nash and Sutcliffe
(1970), is
used to evaluate the coupling model. The NSE for the daily flow varied from
0.67 (ED) to 0.82 (WS) during calibration and from 0.65 (NY) to 0.99 (WS)
during verification (Table 1), thus showing good agreement between the
observed and simulated water levels. As a result, the calibrated roughness
coefficients, n, were 0.055 for agricultural fields, 0.08 for residential
areas in the lakeside area, and 0.028 for NL.
Comparison of the observed and simulated water levels at the
selected locations for 2007 flood events under calibration conditions (left)
and 2008 events under validation conditions (right). Black dots represent
observed data, and black lines represent model simulation results.
Statistical evaluation of model performance for water level
simulations at selected gauging stations for 2007 and 2008 flood events.
Gauging stationNSE 20072008Nanyang0.720.65Makou0.690.76Erji Lake (downstream)0.670.98Weishan0.820.99Results and discussionScenario design
NL is located in China's north–south climate transition zone, and the
temporal distribution of rainfall is severely uneven, with rainfall in the
flood season accounting for 72 % of the annual precipitation. This basin
is located in the north–south climate transition zone of China, and the
phenomenon of drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) frequently occurs. DFAA
refers to a rainstorm after a long period of drought and can result in severe
flood damage. Figure 5 shows the process of rainfall at Wanglu station and
the water levels of the upper and lower lakes at NY and WS stations in 2003.
Since there was no precipitation in the first half of the year, NL dried up
from April to June 2003, which had a devastating impact on the ecosystem of
NL. In the future, if the NLB encounters another drought, such as that in
2003, emergency water diversion by the ER-SNWDP will be the first choice to
provide ecological water for NL. However, heavy rains occurred after
22 August and caused a steep increase in the water level in NL, and 2003 was
a typical year of DFAA. The statistical data show that the waterlogged area
of the NLB is 2360 km2, and waterlogging disasters resulted in a
great economic loss in the lakeside area. Therefore, we take 2003 as an
example to research the impacts of emergency ecological water diversion by
the ER-SNWDP on waterlogging in the NLB.
In recent years, water resource shortages have become increasingly intense
in Shandong Peninsula, China. Even in the flood season, local water
resources still encounter difficulty in meeting demands; thus, the supply of
water to the region that relies on the ER-SNWDP is expected to be more
frequent.
Rainfall at Wanglu station in the NLB and water level variations
in the upper lake and lower lake in 2003. The upper lake is dry when the
water level of NY is 31.5 m. Before July 2003, the NLB suffered severe
drought, but heavy rains in August caused serious floods.
To analyse the influence of water diversion on waterlogging disasters in the
lake basin along the ER-SNWDP, this paper set two conditions in which the
ER-SNWDP supplies an emergency transfer of ecological water to NL and
Shandong Peninsula. Ecological water refers to the transferred water needed
to maintain the normal development and relative stability of all types of
ecological systems in NL during the drought period and prevent the recurrence
of the dry lake situation that occurred in 2003.
An ER-SNWDP emergency requires a supply of ecological water for NL.
Taking a waterlogging occurring in the NLB after 22 August 2003 as an
example, the impact of water diversion on the waterlogging process in the NLB
was studied. Considering the flood control safety of the NLB, we assume that
the emergency water transfer stopped at the beginning of the rainfall event
on 22 August 2003 (Fig. 5). Because the water diversion project is no longer
operational during rainfall, the effect of water diversion on the flood
process of NL mainly increases the water level of NL. Therefore, two
scenarios of waterlogging of the NLB in August 2003 were simulated: the
waterlogging process of the NLB under the influence of emergency water
transfer in August 2003, which is recorded as scenario 2, and the
waterlogging process without water diversion recorded as scenario 1 (see
Table 2 for scenario settings). The difference between scenario 1 and
scenario 2 is the initial water level of NL. In scenario 1, the water levels
of the upper lake and lower lake are 33.01 and 32.20 m, respectively,
as measured on 22 August 2003. In scenario 2, the water levels of the upper
lake and lower lake have been raised to 34 and 32.3 m, respectively,
by emergency water diversion. The rainfall processes of the two scenarios
were measured from 22 August 2003 to 2 September 2003.
An ER-SNWDP emergency requires a supply of water for Shandong Peninsula,
China.
Under this condition, the influence of water diversion on waterlogging
disasters in the lakeside area of NL under different rainstorm intensities is
analysed. The processes of 3-day designed rainfall events with return periods
of 5, 10, and 20 years at six precipitation stations were calculated.
Affected by the emergency water diversion, the initial water levels of the
upper lake and lower lake were 34.00 and 32.30 m, respectively, in
scenarios 6, 7, and 8. Because the water was transferred to alleviate the
water shortage of Shandong Peninsula, China, the ER-SNWDP continued to
operate during rainfall events. In contrast, the initial water levels of the
upper lake and lower lake were 33.01 and 32.20 m, respectively, as
measured on 22 August 2003, in scenarios 3, 4, and 5. In summary, a total of
eight simulation scenarios were set up, as shown in Table 2.
Computational scenario setting.
Sr. no.Initial water level of NLRainfallWhether the ER-SNWDP works during the simulation133.01 m in upper lake, 32.20 m in lower lakeActual daily rainfall from 22 August to 2 September 2003NO234.0 m in upper lake, 32.3 m in lower lakeDesigned storm with return periods of3Actual water level on 22 August 20035 yearsNO410 years520 years634.0 m in upper lake, 32.3 m in lower lake5 yearsYES710 years820 yearsImpacts of emergency water diversion by the ER-SNWDP on waterlogging of
the NLB
Rice, cotton, corn and soybeans are the main crops in the study region, and
their waterlogging tolerance depths are 0.5, 0.1, 0.1, and 0.1 m, respectively (Wang, 2015).
Therefore, the areas with inundated depths above 0.1 and 0.5 m are
counted in the simulation results. In the calculation results of scenario 1
and scenario 2, the areas with submerged depths larger than 0.1 and
0.5 m are counted. Table 3 shows the rainfall events from 22 August
to 2 September 2003, under the condition of no water diversion, which caused
the inundated area in the lakeside region to reach 1126.59 km2,
and the area with a submerged depth over 0.5 m reached
383.68 km2. Statistical data show that the total waterlogging area
under the 36.79 m contour line was 1284.21 km2 in 2003.
The simulation result is slightly smaller than the survey result because the
simulation did not cover the entire year, and rain remained in the basin
after 2 September 2003. In general, the simulation results can be considered
reasonable.
Results of waterlogging in the lakeside area of NL.
Sr. no.Water depth of NL Area with an inundated Area with an inundated depth above 0.1 m depth above 0.5 m Average (m)Max (m)Total area (km2)Area ratio (%)Total area (km2)Area ratio (%)12.475.961126.5932.51383.6811.0722.806.141160.8533.50434.7712.55
Table 4 shows the increase in the waterlogging area in the lakeside area of
NL under the condition of water diversion in the ER-SNWDP compared with that
without water diversion. When the phenomenon of DFAA occurs, the lake level
increase via the emergency operation of the ER-SNWDP during the flood season
increases the waterlogging intensity in the lakeside area of NL. Compared
with the situation without water diversion, the area with a submerged depth
over 10 cm increased by 34.26 km2. Emergency water
diversion resulted in a relative increase of 0.99 % in the submerged
area. The heavy disaster area, with a water depth of more than 50 cm,
increased by 51.09 km2, which was 13.32 % higher than that
without water diversion.
Increment of the waterlogging area in the lakeside area of
NL.
Contrastive analysisArea with an inundated Area with an inundated depth above 0.1 m depth above 0.5 m IncrementRelativeArea ratioIncrementRelativeArea ratio(km2)increase (%)increase(km2)increase (%)increaseVariation34.263.040.9951.0913.321.47
Figure 6 shows the waterlogging distribution in the lakeside area of NL under
two scenarios. The comparison in Fig. 6a and b shows that the water
diversion primarily increased the waterlogging area between the Dongyu River
and Wanfu River in the western region of NL and had a relatively small
impact on the eastern area of NL. Compared with the eastern NL, due to the
lower and flatter terrain in the western NL, the raised water level of NL
has a greater impediment to drainage in the western NL. Therefore,
water-receiving lake basins with plain areas should consider the effects of
inter-basin water diversion on waterlogging disasters. Figure 7 presents the
stage hydrograph for the MK hydrographic station and the flood discharge of
the ED for two scenarios. Figure 7 indicates that emergency water diversion
has an obvious influence on the water level of NL during the initial period
of rain, and the regulation of the ED junction leads to a decrease in the
water level difference between the two scenarios. Emergency water diversion
increases the initial water level of NL at the beginning of the rainfall
event, and the water level of the upper lake in scenario 2 first reaches the
water level at which the ED begins flood drainage. With the increase in the
water level, the discharge of the ED also increases, which satisfactorily
adjusts the water level of the upper lake. Affected by the higher initial
water level raised by water diversion, the flood discharge start time of the
ED junction in scenario 2 is 4 days earlier than that in scenario 1.
Furthermore, the total amount of flood discharge in scenario 2 increases by
approximately 249 million m3 compared to that in scenario 1 (Fig. 7).
Distribution of waterlogging in the lakeside area of NL.
Water level at the MK station in the upper lake and the discharge
of flood drainage of the ED from 22 August to 2 September 2003, under
scenario 1 (without water diversion) and scenario 2 (with water diversion).
Results of waterlogging simulations of the lakeside area
under different scenarios.
Sr. no.Water depth of NL Area with an inundated depth above 0.1 m Area with an inundated depth above 0.5 m Average (m)Max (m)Total area (km2)Area ratio (%)Total area (km2)Area ratio (%)31.865.23793.7522.9160.631.7542.035.87907.8526.20159.984.6252.416.311002.0528.92240.546.9462.105.87816.0223.5586.772.5072.266.10926.4026.73181.735.2482.176.081016.6829.34260.767.53Impacts caused by ER-SNWDP emergency water diversion for Shandong
Peninsula during waterlogging of the NLB
Table 5 shows the simulation results of waterlogging in the lakeside area in
the case of the diversion and non-diversion of water by the ER-SNWDP to
Shandong Peninsula when designed rainfall events with 5-year, 10-year, and
20-year return periods occur in the basin. Emergency water diversion has
certain effects on the waterlogged area in the lakeside area of NL. According
to the comparison of scenarios 3 and 6, when the NLB encounters rainfall
events with a 5-year return period, the areas with submerged depths over 0.1
and 0.5 m increase by 22.27 and 26.14 km2, respectively,
under the condition of emergency water diversion.
Figure 8 illustrates the relative increase in the waterlogging area and its
change trend in the lakeside area of NL under three designed rainfall
conditions with water diversion and non-water diversion. Panel (a) shows the
contrast of the waterlogged area with an inundated water depth above
0.1 m under different rainfall events, and panel (b) shows the
waterlogged area with an inundated water depth above 0.5 m. The black
lines in panels (a) and (b) both show a downward trend, which indicates that
the influence of emergency water diversion on waterlogging in the lakeside
area decreases with increasing rainfall. Affected by the emergency water
diversion, the relative increase in the waterlogging area with an inundated
water depth above 0.1 m is between 1.5 % and 2.8 % (Fig. 8a),
and the relative increase in the waterlogging area with an inundated water
depth above 0.5 m is between 8.4 % and 43.1 % (Fig. 8b) when
storms with 5-year, 10-year, and 20-year return periods occur in the NLB.
Under the same rainfall conditions, such as rainstorm events with 5-year
return periods, the areal change in submerged water depth greater than
0.5 m (43.1 %) in the lakeside area is obviously larger than that
of submerged water depth greater than 0.1 m (2.8 %). The
calculated results indicate that emergency water diversion has more obvious
effects on the waterlogging area with deeper (0.5 m) submerged water.
Changes in waterlogging areas in the lakeside area under the
influence of water diversion (shaded bar) and no diversion (black bar). The
black line represents the trend of the relative increase in waterlogged area
caused by water diversion.
The emergency water diversion of the SNWDP alleviated the drought situation
in the Shandong Peninsula area and increased the degree of waterlogging in
the NLB under DFAA. The sluices of the ED are the only flood-discharge
channels of the upper lake, and the increased water in the upper lake due to
water diversion also increased the task of flood discharge in those sluices.
Figure 9 shows the flood-discharge process of the ED project under different
design rainfall events. When the NLB encountered a storm with a 5-year return
period, the upper lake level did not reach the flood-discharge conditions
without the influence of water diversion (Fig. 8a). Affected by water
diversion, the sluices began to drain the flood water after 30 h of
rain, with a total discharge volume of 85 million m3 (Fig. 9a).
When the NLB encountered a rainstorm with a 10-year return period, under the
condition of water diversion, the sluices began to drain the flood water
after 28 h of rain, which was 36 h ahead of the situation
with no water diversion (at the 66th hour). The total flood volume that was
discharged by the ED project was 104 million m3 greater than that
without the effect of water diversion (Fig. 9b). When the NLB encountered a
storm with a 20-year return period, under the condition of water diversion,
the time that the ED project began to discharge the flood occurred
26 h after the rain started, which was 32 h ahead of the
situation with no water diversion (at the 58th hour). Compared with the
scenario without water diversion, the total discharge volume increased by
129 million m3 (Fig. 9c).
Changes in the flood discharge of the ED under water diversion with
different storm levels. Flood discharge under rainfall events for different
return periods: 5 years (a), 10 years (b),
20 years (c). The bar chart with different colours shows the 3-day
rainfall processes at each rainfall station. Black lines represent the
flood-discharge process of the ED with and without the effect of water
diversion.
Conclusions and policy implications
The following selected conclusions are presented.
To clarify the impacts that inter-basin water transfer has on the
water-receiving areas, this study used the MIKE model to simulate flooding
and waterlogging in the NLB. One- and two-dimensional coupled flooding and
waterlogging simulation models of the NLB were established to simulate the
water diversion of the ER-SNWDP. The MIKE 11 model was applied to simulate
the flow movement of water in the water diversion channel and tributaries of
NL, and the MIKE 21 model was applied to simulate waterlogging in the
lakeside area and water flow in NL. The verification results show that the
presented method can effectively simulate the flooding and waterlogging
processes in the NLB under the effect of the ER-SNWDP.
The ER-SNWDP emergency water transfer to NL increases the risk of
waterlogging damage in the lakeside area if it occurs simultaneously with
the DFAA. The increased water level caused by water diversion decreases the
efficiency of waterlogging drainage, and as a result, the waterlogged area
with an inundated water depth above 0.1 m increased by 0.99 %, and that
with an inundated water depth above 0.5 m increased by 13.32 %. The
flood-discharge time of the ED increased by 4 days, and the total discharge
volume increased by 249 million m3 during the simulation.
The ER-SNWDP emergency water transfer to Shandong Peninsula raised the
water level of NL, which acted as a regulation and storage lake. Compared
with the no water transfer situation, the waterlogging areas in the lakeside
area increased when NL encountered storms with 5-year, 10-year, and 20-year
return periods under water diversion. The calculation results show that water
diversion has a more obvious effect on waterlogging areas, with an inundated
water depth above 0.5 m, and the area increasing by
8.4 %–43.1 %. The total volume of flooding discharged by the ED also
increased. In addition, we found that with the increase in rainfall
intensity, the influence of water diversion on the lakeside area in the
NL-inundated area gradually decreased and the water transfer had more serious
effects during rainstorms with lower return periods.
Certain implications for the management of inter-basin water diversion and
lake basins along the route of the water diversion project are presented
below.
For a complicated flood control and drainage system that contains a
number of hydraulic structures, such as pumping stations, sluices, and
embankments, flood movement behaviour regulations must be implemented and
flood disaster losses must be reduced by establishing one- and
two-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic models to accurately simulate the flow
process and a clear movement direction of floods.
For a long-distance inter-basin water transfer project, due to the large
difference between high and low precipitation in water supply and
water-receiving areas (combined with global climate change and hydrological
uncertainty), strengthening the analysis of the emergency water diversion
influence on flood control and drainage is not only necessary for the
scientific management of the inter-basin water transfer project, but also
conducive to realizing the expected benefits and reducing the negative
effects of the project.
To reduce the inter-basin water transfer project effect on waterlogging
in the water-receiving area, we can take steps based on the following
factors. First, additional emphasis should be placed on planning projects,
increasing the number of waterlogging drainage pumping stations and enlarging
the capacity of flood discharge buildings in water-receiving basins. Second,
hydrological forecasting and early warning abilities should be improved and
the accuracy and forecast period of rainfall events should be increased to
stop water diversion or lower the water level of the lake before the
rainstorm.
Regarding future research, we can expand on the following aspects: (1) the
vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies, populations, gross domestic product
(GDP), and other information should be considered to more accurately reflect
waterlogging disasters in the research area; (2) a case study analysis of the
balance between water transfer risk and water resource benefits should be
conducted; and (3) in the future, the spatial distribution of roughness in NL
should be considered to improve the accuracy of flood simulation in NL.
Data availability
All data except for the DEM of the lakeside and Nansihu
Lake in 2013 were acquired by the authors. Data except for the DEM can be
requested by email from the author at wangzz77@163.com.
Author contributions
KW prepared the manuscript with contributions from all the co-authors. KW
and ZW developed the model and ZW designed the scenario. KL, LC, and LW
guided and participated in the modelling; KL and LC dealt with the boundary
conditions of the model. AY made the electric artworks and did the word
processing.
Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgements
This study was financially supported by the National Key Research and
Development Program of China (2017YFC0403504) and the National Science
Foundation of China under grant nos. 51479119 and 51579064. Edited by: Heidi Kreibich Reviewed by:
Christian Siebert and one anonymous referee
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