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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">NHESS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">NHESS</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1684-9981</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>

    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/nhess-17-1025-2017</article-id><title-group><article-title>Signal frequency distribution and natural-time analyses from acoustic
emission monitoring of an arched structure in the<?xmltex \hack{\newline}?> Castle of Racconigi</article-title>
      </title-group><?xmltex \runningtitle{AE monitoring in the Castle of Racconigi}?><?xmltex \runningauthor{G. Niccolini et al.}?>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Niccolini</surname><given-names>Gianni</given-names></name>
          <email>gianni.niccolini@polito.it</email>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Manuello</surname><given-names>Amedeo</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff2">
          <name><surname>Marchis</surname><given-names>Elena</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Carpinteri</surname><given-names>Alberto</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>Department of Structural, Geotechnical and Building Engineering, Politecnico di Torino,<?xmltex \hack{\newline}?> Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino, Italy</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>Department of Architecture and Design, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Turin, Italy</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">Gianni Niccolini (gianni.niccolini@polito.it)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>4</day><month>July</month><year>2017</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>17</volume>
      <issue>7</issue>
      <fpage>1025</fpage><lpage>1032</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>18</day><month>November</month><year>2016</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-request"><day>18</day><month>January</month><year>2017</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>12</day><month>April</month><year>2017</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>1</day><month>May</month><year>2017</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/1025/2017/nhess-17-1025-2017.html">This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/1025/2017/nhess-17-1025-2017.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/1025/2017/nhess-17-1025-2017.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/1025/2017/nhess-17-1025-2017.pdf</self-uri>


      <abstract>
    <p>The stability of an arch as a structural element in the thermal
bath of King Charles Albert (Carlo Alberto) in the Royal Castle of Racconigi (on the UNESCO
World Heritage List since 1997) was assessed by the acoustic emission (AE)
monitoring technique with application of classical inversion methods to
recorded AE data. First, damage source location by means of triangulation
techniques and signal frequency analysis were carried out. Then, the recently
introduced method of natural-time analysis was preliminarily applied to the
AE time series in order to reveal a possible entrance point to a critical state
of the monitored structural element. Finally, possible influence of the local
seismic and microseismic activity on the stability of the monitored
structure was investigated. The criterion for selecting relevant earthquakes was
based on the estimation of the size of earthquake preparation zones. The
presented results suggest the use of the AE technique as a tool for detecting
both ongoing structural damage processes and microseismic activity during
preparation stages of seismic events.</p>
  </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

<sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <title>Introduction</title>
      <p>Fracture in heterogeneous materials is a complex phenomenon which involves a
wide range of time, space and magnitude scales, from microcracking to
earthquake ruptures, including structural failures (Omori, 1894; Richter,
1958; Kanamori and Anderson, 1975; Aki, 1981). Thus, acoustic emission (AE)
monitoring during loading experiments gives insight into the evolution of
microcrack networks in laboratory experiments and is possibly a tool for
understanding the occurrence of fractures at larger scales (Mogi, 1962).
Over the last decades, this approach has provided the opportunity to
develop universal scaling laws reflecting the scale invariance and the
self-similarity of fracture processes from the laboratory to the fault scale
in time, space and magnitude domains (Turcotte, 1997; Bonnet et al. 2001;
Bak et al., 2002; Tosi et al., 2004; Corral, 2006; Davidsen et al., 2007;
Kun et al., 2008). These studies should hopefully contribute to solving the
main problems of earthquake prediction and the remaining life assessment of
structural elements. In particular, the latter is a crucial issue for
researchers involved in restoration projects of historic monuments with
damaged and cracked structural elements, which can benefit from the use of
nondestructive monitoring techniques for the structural integrity assessment
(Carpinteri et al., 2011; Schiavi et al., 2011; Lacidogna et al., 2015a). AE
monitoring seems to be suitable for this kind of structural monitoring
as it provides information on the internal state of a material
without altering state of conservation of statues, monuments and fine
artworks.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F1" specific-use="star"><caption><p>Axonometric view of the castle in the contemporary
configuration <bold>(a)</bold>; plan of the first floor: localization of the
monitored bearing structure inside the thermal bath <bold>(b)</bold>.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=369.885827pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/1025/2017/nhess-17-1025-2017-f01.png"/>

      </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F2" specific-use="star"><caption><p>The monitored arch <bold>(a)</bold> and the transducers
positions <bold>(b, c)</bold>.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/1025/2017/nhess-17-1025-2017-f02.jpg"/>

      </fig>

      <p>A relevant case study is here illustrated by the Castle of Racconigi (origin
dating back to the 13th century), whose original structure of a medieval
fortress was transformed over the centuries into a royal residence, becoming
the southernmost of the Savoy Residences and one of the most important
monuments in northwestern Italy. The moment of increased activity and
restoration occurred between 1831 and 1848 during the reign of Charles Albert (Carlo
Alberto), who commissioned the extension of this residence to Ernesto Melano
(1784–1867) and its decoration to Pelagio Pelagi (1775–1860).</p>
      <p>The castle, with its bearing walls decorated by frescoes, represents an
extraordinary benchmark for the definition of conservation methods
exploiting new technologies (Lacidogna et al., 2011; Niccolini et al., 2014).
This paper presents the results of AE monitoring of an arch in the thermal
bath of King Charles Albert, located in the ground floor of the Castle of
Racconigi, as a part of the complex planned by Pelagi in the Roman style and
inspired by the “balnea” of the Pompeian villas. The wing of the castle
containing this room is currently being restored.</p>
      <p>Besides the disruptive power of strong earthquakes,
Italian historic buildings and monuments suffer from the action of small and
intermediate earthquakes, whose effects, though not immediately or clearly
visibly, eventually result in increased vulnerability to stronger earthquakes
with catastrophic human and economic costs. In this framework, over the
recent years there has been an increasing interest in AE monitoring related
to environmental phenomena. Several case histories in the Italian territory
and previous studies support the hypothesis that increased AE activity may
be a signature of crustal stresses redistribution in a large zone during the
preparation of a seismic event (Gregori and Paparo, 2004; Gregori et al., 2005; Carpinteri et al., 2007; Niccolini et
al., 2011). According to previous research studies performed by Dobrovolsky
et al. (1979), it can be assumed that the preparation zone is a circle with
its center at the epicenter of the impending earthquake. The radius <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:mi>r</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> of
the circle, called the “strain radius”, is given by the relationship <inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>r</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.433</mml:mn><mml:mi>M</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.6</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" display="inline"><mml:mi>M</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the earthquake magnitude and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:mi>r</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is
expressed in kilometers. All the seismic precursors, including AE, are expected to
fall within this circle.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <title>Experimental results</title>
      <p>Damage assessment in an arch of the castle's thermal bath (Fig. 1) has been
carried out using the AE technique, as a first step to plan possible
restoration interventions. Among all structural elements, arches and vaults
made of stone or brick, be they bearing or not, are the most prone to
degradation and stress caused by seismic events, changes in acting loads and
foundation sinking, which cause the structure to lose its original
mechanical properties. Because these elements are of great historic and
architectural value, they need to be consolidated in a noninvasive,
compatible and consistent way with regard to their special features. The
examined architectural element, currently supported by a steel frame
structure, is a masonry arch with a span of 4 meters exhibiting a relevant
crack pattern. The propagation of one visible macrocrack has been
investigated by an array of eight broad-band piezoelectric transducers
(working in the range 10 kHz–1 MHz) fixed on the arch surface as shown in
Fig. 2. The AE transducers have been connected to a eight-channel acquisition
system, AEmission<sup>®</sup>, which implements algorithms for automatic
analysis of AE signal parameters, i.e., arrival time (determined with an
accuracy of 0.2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>s), duration, amplitude and count number (total
number of signal threshold crossings). The stored AE parameters can be
wirelessly transmitted to a receiver, allowing long-distance remote and
real-time monitoring.</p>
      <p>Before starting the monitoring, the background noise was checked for a
representative period of time, i.e. 24 h, in order to determine the
level of spurious signals. Thus, after identifying a signal detection
threshold of 1.5 mV, a 1-month monitoring period started. In order to
suppress possible voltage spikes, acquired AE signals with duration
&lt; 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>s and count number &lt; 3 were filtered out.
Spatial identification of the arch's damaged zones was performed by
applying triangulation equations to the received AE signals in order to
localize the AE sources as active and propagating crack tips (Shah and Li,
1994; Shiotani et al., 1994; Grosse et al., 1997; Guarino et al., 1998;
Ohtsu et al., 1998; Colombo et al. 2003; Turcotte et al., 2003; Aggelis et
al., 2013).</p>
      <p>The 3-D diagrams shown in Fig. 3 suggest that the arch experiences damage on
one side, despite the use of reinforcing elements. Since all possible noisy
signals in the frequency and amplitude range of measurement have been
minimized, the burst of AE activity, marked by a vertical dashed line in the
top diagram of Fig. 4, can be reasonably correlated with a sudden increase in
damage accumulation.</p><?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <title>Frequency and natural-time analysis of AE time series and correlation with
nearby seismicity</title>
      <p>In the frame of critical phenomena (Bak and Tang, 1989; Stanley, 1999), the fracture process is viewed as a
critical state of a dynamical system, and the problem of early detection of
fracture precursors in structural elements long before the final collapse is
transformed in the investigation of indicators revealing the entrance to a
“critical state”.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F3"><caption><p>3-D map showing the positions of transducers (blue squares) and
localized AE sources (red dots): front <bold>(a)</bold>, upper <bold>(b)</bold> and
side view <bold>(c)</bold>.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=227.622047pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/1025/2017/nhess-17-1025-2017-f03.png"/>

      </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F4" specific-use="star"><caption><p>From top to bottom: accumulated number of AE signals (“hits”): the
dashed line indicates a critical point revealed by the natural-time analysis;
AE count rate and sequence of nearby earthquakes marked by red triangles (the
arrow points to the strongest one); time series of signal frequencies and
amplitudes.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/1025/2017/nhess-17-1025-2017-f04.png"/>

      </fig>

      <p>Recently, a noteworthy approach to identifying when a complex system
enters a critical state has been developed, based on the time-series
analysis of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> events read in a new time domain, termed natural time <inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>
(Varotsos et al., 2001, 2011a, b, 2013), where the time stamping is ignored and only the
natural time, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M9" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, as a normalized order of occurrence of
the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>th event, and the energy <inline-formula><mml:math id="M11" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are preserved. In natural-time analysis
the evolution of the pair (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M12" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M13" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is considered, by
introducing the normalized power spectrum <inline-formula><mml:math id="M14" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∏</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ω</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>≡</mml:mo><mml:mo>|</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Φ</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ω</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mo>|</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, defined by <inline-formula><mml:math id="M15" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Φ</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ω</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mi>exp⁡</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ω</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M16" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ω</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> stands for the
angular natural frequency and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M17" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:msub><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the normalized energy of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M18" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>th event. It was
found that all the moments of the distribution of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M19" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> can be
estimated from the Taylor expansion <inline-formula><mml:math id="M20" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∏</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ω</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ω</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ω</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ..., where the
values of the coefficient <inline-formula><mml:math id="M21" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, which is just the variance of
natural time <inline-formula><mml:math id="M22" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>, i.e., <inline-formula><mml:math id="M23" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>≡</mml:mo><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:msup><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, are useful in identifying the approach of a
dynamical system to a critical state. The variance <inline-formula><mml:math id="M24" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> varies
when a new AE event (“hit”) occurs, as (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M25" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M26" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are
rescaled as natural-time <inline-formula><mml:math id="M27" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes from <inline-formula><mml:math id="M28" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M29" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M30" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M31" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:msub><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Thus, the evolution hit by hit of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M32" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is shown along
with that of the entropy <inline-formula><mml:math id="M33" display="inline"><mml:mi>S</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>, which in the natural-time domain is defined as
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M34" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>S</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mi>ln⁡</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mi>ln⁡</mml:mi><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M35" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mi>ln⁡</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mi>ln⁡</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>
      <p>It has been successfully shown for a variety of dynamical systems that
entering the critical state occurs when the variance <inline-formula><mml:math id="M36" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
converges to 0.07 (Varotsos et al., 2001, 2011a, b), even if a theoretical derivation of the general validity of
the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M37" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.07</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> condition for criticality still remains an open
issue. Two criteria have been defined to identify the entrance of a system
to a true critical state (Varotsos et al., 2008): (1) the parameter <inline-formula><mml:math id="M38" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> must approach the value 0.07 “by descending from above”, and (2) the
entropy <inline-formula><mml:math id="M39" display="inline"><mml:mi>S</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> must be lower than the entropy of uniform noise, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M40" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>S</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">u</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.0966</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>,
when <inline-formula><mml:math id="M41" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> converges to 0.07.</p>
      <p>Here, the damage evolution of a structural element is investigated by
analyzing the AE time series using two different methods and comparing the
results. First, the evolution of variance <inline-formula><mml:math id="M42" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and entropy <inline-formula><mml:math id="M43" display="inline"><mml:mi>S</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> of the
natural-time transformed time series <inline-formula><mml:math id="M44" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="italic">{</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo mathvariant="italic">}</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is studied, where the
energy <inline-formula><mml:math id="M45" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> associated with the AE event amplitude <inline-formula><mml:math id="M46" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>A</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is given by
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M47" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>A</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.5</mml:mn></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, similarly to seismology (Kanamori and Anderson, 1975;
Turcotte, 1997). The second method used is the analysis of evolving AE signal
frequencies over the monitoring time (Gregori and Paparo, 2004; Gregori et al., 2005; Schiavi et al., 2011).</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T1" specific-use="star"><caption><p>List of nearby earthquakes that occurred during the AE monitoring; the
event with the preparation zone encircling the monitoring site is written in
bold.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="8">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="7" colname="col7" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="8" colname="col8" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Time origin</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Time delta</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Lat</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Long</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Depth</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">Dist.</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">Magnitude</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">Radius</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">(UTC)</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">(h)</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M48" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M49" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">(km)</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">(km)</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">(km)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">10 December 2015</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M50" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>22.46</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">44.561</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">7.161</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">11.2</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">46.8</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">1.9</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">26.5</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">16:31:56.990</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">15 December 2015</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">102.73</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">45.087</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">7.163</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">7.9</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">53.6</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">1.3</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">14.5</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">11:21:44.070</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">18 December 2015</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">158.6</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">44.549</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">6.775</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">5.6</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">75.3</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">1.2</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">13.2</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">05:36:07.740</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">22 December 2015</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">259.68</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">44.93</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">6.874</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">10.4</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">65.7</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">1.3</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">14.5</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">07:10:41.190</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">23 December 2015</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">286.75</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">44.651</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">6.84</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">6.8</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">67.3</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">2.2</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">35.7</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">13:45:30.560</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">28 December 2015</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">394.18</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">44.45</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">7.289</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">11.8</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">46.8</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">1.9</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">26.5</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">01:11:29.380</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">31 December 2015</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">484.26</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">44.548</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">6.756</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">9.1</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">76.8</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">2.4</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">43.6</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">19:16:48.900</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><bold>31 December 2015</bold></oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><bold>485.7</bold></oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><bold>44.765</bold></oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><bold>6.76</bold></oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><bold>9.4</bold></oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><bold>71</bold></oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><bold>3.0</bold></oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><bold>79.2</bold></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><bold>20:42:01.000</bold></oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">7 January 2016</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">638.68</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">45.07</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">6.57</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">10</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">93.2</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">1.3</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">14. 5</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">05:41:23.000</oasis:entry>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>  
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

      <p>First, the evolution of natural-time variance <inline-formula><mml:math id="M51" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and entropy
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M52" display="inline"><mml:mi>S</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> as functions of the accumulated number <inline-formula><mml:math id="M53" display="inline"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> of hits, i.e., as they change with
the addition of every new hit, is plotted in Fig. 5. Thus, it is possible to
easily reveal the possible entrance point to a critical state,
corresponding to the fulfillment of criticality conditions (1) and (2)
(Vallianatos et al., 2013; Hloupis et al., 2015, 2016). It
is worth noting that the criticality initiation point (marked with a
vertical line at the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M54" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">104</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> hit number in Fig. 5) corresponds exactly to
the abrupt jump in the AE rate highlighted in Fig. 4 and amounts to about
100 hits. This result, though obtained from a relatively small data sample,
apparently confirms the potential of the AE natural-time analysis to reveal
the onset of criticality in fracture systems.</p>
      <p>Second, the AE signal frequency analysis has been correlated with the nearby
seismicity within a radius of 100 km from the monitoring site (see Fig. 4
with the earthquake time series marked by red triangles). In particular, it
has been found that AE activity vanishes at the end of a seismic sequence
culminating in a magnitude 3.0 earthquake (pointed to by the black arrow),
suggesting that part of the detected AE activity might be rather due to
diffused microseismic activity falling in the preparation zone of the
considered earthquake (strain radius &gt; epicentral distance from
the monitoring site) according to the criterion proposed by Dobrovolsky et
al. (1979) (see Table 1 and Fig. 6).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F5"><caption><p>Evolution of natural-time quantities <inline-formula><mml:math id="M55" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (blue line) and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M56" display="inline"><mml:mi>S</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (red line) as functions of accumulated AE hit number <inline-formula><mml:math id="M57" display="inline"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>. The horizontal
dashed line indicates the value <inline-formula><mml:math id="M58" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">00.07</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, while the vertical line
indicates the corresponding criticality initiation hit (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M59" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">104</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). The upper
dash-dot line indicates the entropy limit <inline-formula><mml:math id="M60" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>S</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">u</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.0966</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=241.848425pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/1025/2017/nhess-17-1025-2017-f05.png"/>

      </fig>

      <p>As cracking is a multi-scale phenomenon in the Earth's crust, the frequencies
of AE waves related to microseismic activity are spread over a broad
spectrum. At the earlier stages of the preparation of a seismic event, mainly
microcracks, and therefore high-frequency AE (MHz), will be present and
active, while finally large cracks and lower frequencies will prevail,
reaching also the audible field (Hz) during the earthquake occurrence
(Gregori and Paparo, 2004; Gregori et al.,
2005; Carpinteri, 2015).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F6"><caption><p>Map showing the epicenter of the magnitude 3 earthquake that occurred on
31 December 2015 and the related preparation zone encircling the monitoring
site in Racconigi.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=170.716535pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/1025/2017/nhess-17-1025-2017-f06.jpg"/>

      </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F7" specific-use="star"><caption><p>Histograms representing successive statistical distribution of the
AE signal frequencies with bins 20 kHz wide starting at 10 kHz. The dashed
lines represent the mean value of each distribution: 221, 193 and 141 kHz (top to bottom).</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=312.980315pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/1025/2017/nhess-17-1025-2017-f07.png"/>

      </fig>

      <p><?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>Hence, we have subjected the distribution of the AE signal frequencies
(calculated by dividing the count number by the signal duration) to a
statistical analysis, by partitioning the time window preceding the
considered seismic event into three sub-intervals in order to describe the
evolution of the frequency distributions over time. We have chosen the
sub-intervals 0–50 h, 90–190 h and 260–485 h, which are characterized
by different stages of the AE activity separated by quite long silent
periods. The first interval (0–50 h) contains a sudden increase in the AE
rate, followed by two intervals (90–190 h and 260–485 h) with smoother
AE rates. When comparing the plots of the corresponding distributions (Fig. 7), a
progressive reduction of the highest frequencies, i.e., between 400 and 800 kHz,
is observable as the seismic event was approaching. The reduction is
given in percentage terms, 30, 22 and 16 % of the total amount of
signals for each distribution. The frequency decay over time emerges
also from the decreasing trend of the distributions' mean values, which are
221, 193 and 141 kHz.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4" sec-type="conclusions">
  <title>Conclusion and prospectives</title>
      <p>Structural monitoring based on the AE technique allowed active
microcracks to be pointed out in an arched structure located in the Castle of Racconigi. Thus,
3-D localization of the ongoing damage process will result in more cost
and time savings in the case of future maintenance and intervention programs.
Furthermore, a preliminary investigation of critical-state indicators of the arch
was carried out using the natural-time analysis applied to the AE time
series. The obtained results apparently reveal the possibility of capturing
the transition of this structural element to a critical state through the
analysis of natural-time statistical parameters, such as the variance
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M61" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and the entropy <inline-formula><mml:math id="M62" display="inline"><mml:mi>S</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>
      <p>On the other hand, the experimental evidence supports the hypothesis that a
relevant part of AE activity emerging from the monitored element may be
induced by evolving microseismicity falling into the preparation zone of a
well identifiable earthquake according to the Dobrovolsky criterion. Indeed,
the relatively small number of inner AE sources localized into the
structure, compared to the total amount of recorded AE events, is compatible
with the existence of a scattered source, i.e., the crustal trembling.</p>
      <p>Finally, AE structural monitoring potentially provides twofold information in
seismic areas: one concerning the structural damage and the other concerning
the microseismic activity, propagating across the ground–building foundation
interface, for which the building foundation represents a sort of extended
underground probe (Gregori and Paparo,
2004; Gregori et al., 2005; Carpinteri et al., 2007). In this sense,
structural monitoring in seismic areas could be usefully coupled with
investigations of the local earthquake precursors (Niccolini et al., 2015;
Lacidogna et al., 2015b).</p>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><notes notes-type="dataavailability">

      <p>Data are not publicly accessible. However, the authors
undertake to provide data to everyone who requests it.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="competinginterests">

      <p>The authors declare that they have no conflict of
interest.</p>
  </notes><ack><title>Acknowledgements</title><p>The previous director of the Polo Museale del Piemonte del Real Castello e
Parco di Racconigi, architect Giuse Scalva, and the current director,
architect Riccardo Vitale, are gratefully acknowledged for their assistance in the
definition of the site and during the the monitoring phases.<?xmltex \hack{\newline}?><?xmltex \hack{\newline}?>
Edited by: Filippos Vallianatos<?xmltex \hack{\newline}?>
Reviewed by: two anonymous referees</p></ack><ref-list>
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  </ref-list><app-group content-type="float"><app><title/>

    </app></app-group></back>
    <!--<article-title-html>Signal frequency distribution and natural-time analyses from acoustic emission monitoring of an arched structure in the Castle of Racconigi</article-title-html>
<abstract-html><p class="p">The stability of an arch as a structural element in the thermal
bath of King Charles Albert (Carlo Alberto) in the Royal Castle of Racconigi (on the UNESCO
World Heritage List since 1997) was assessed by the acoustic emission (AE)
monitoring technique with application of classical inversion methods to
recorded AE data. First, damage source location by means of triangulation
techniques and signal frequency analysis were carried out. Then, the recently
introduced method of natural-time analysis was preliminarily applied to the
AE time series in order to reveal a possible entrance point to a critical state
of the monitored structural element. Finally, possible influence of the local
seismic and microseismic activity on the stability of the monitored
structure was investigated. The criterion for selecting relevant earthquakes was
based on the estimation of the size of earthquake preparation zones. The
presented results suggest the use of the AE technique as a tool for detecting
both ongoing structural damage processes and microseismic activity during
preparation stages of seismic events.</p></abstract-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib1"><label>1</label><mixed-citation>
Aggelis, D. G., Mpalaskas, A. C., and Matikas, T. E.: Investigation of
different fracture modes in cement-based materials by acoustic emission,
Cement Concrete Res., 48, 1–8, 2013.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib2"><label>2</label><mixed-citation>
Aki, K.: A probabilistic synthesis of precursory phenomena, in: Earthquake
Prediction, edited by: Simpson, D. W. and Richards, P. G., American
Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., USA, 566–574, 1981.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib3"><label>3</label><mixed-citation>
Bak, P. and Tang, C.: Earthquakes as a self-organized critical phenomenon, J.
Geophys. Res., 94, 15635–15637, 1989.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib4"><label>4</label><mixed-citation>
Bak, P., Christensen, K., Danon, L., and Scanlon, T.: Unified scaling law for
earthquakes, Phys. Rev. Lett., 88, 178501,
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.88.178501" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1016/10.1103/PhysRevLett.88.178501</a>, 2002.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
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Berkowitz, B.: Scaling of fracture systems in geological media, Rev.
Geophys., 39, 347–383, 2001.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib6"><label>6</label><mixed-citation>
Carpinteri, A.: TeraHertz Phonons and Piezonuclear Reactions from Nano-scale
Mechanical Instabilities, in: Acoustic, Electromagnetic, Neutron Emissions
from Fracture and Earthquakes, edited by: Carpinteri, A., Lacidogna, G., and
Manuello, A., Springer International Publishing Switzerland, Cham,
Heidelberg, New York, Dordrecht, London, 1–10, 2015.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
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Carpinteri, A., Lacidogna, G., and Niccolini, G.: Damage analysis of
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</mixed-citation></ref-html>
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Colombo, S., Main, I. G., and Forde, M. C.: Assessing damage of reinforced
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Mater. Civil Eng., 15, 280–286, 2003.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
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Modeling Critical and Catastrophic Phenomena in Geoscience, edited by:
Bhattacharya, P. and Chakrabarti, B. K., Springer Lecture Notes in Physics,
705, Berlin, Germany, 191–221, 2006.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib11"><label>11</label><mixed-citation>
Davidsen, J., Stanchits, S., and Dresen, G.: Scaling and universality in rock
fracture, Phys. Rev. Lett., 98 125502, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.98.125502" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1016/10.1103/PhysRevLett.98.125502</a>,
2007.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib12"><label>12</label><mixed-citation>
Dobrovolsky, I. P., Zubkov, S. I., and Miachkin, V. I.: Estimation of the
size of earthquake preparation zones, Pure Appl. Geophys., 117, 1025–1044,
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</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib13"><label>13</label><mixed-citation>
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environmental sciences and for non destructive tests (with a potential
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