NHESS Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences NHESS Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 1684-9981 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/nhess-14-1309-2014 Seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation with kernel functions Crespo M. J. 1 3 Martínez F. 2 3 Martí J. 1 3 Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, ETSI Minas, Calle de Ríos Rosas, 21, Madrid, Spain Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, ETSI Caminos, Canales y Puertos, Calle Profesor Aranguren S/N, Ciudad Universitaria, Madrid, Spain Principia, Velázquez, 94, 28006 Madrid, Spain 23 05 2014 14 5 1309 1323 Copyright: © 2014 M. J. Crespo et al. 2014 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/14/1309/2014/nhess-14-1309-2014.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/14/1309/2014/nhess-14-1309-2014.pdf

The seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula is analysed using a nonparametric methodology based on statistical kernel functions; the activity rate is derived from the catalogue data, both its spatial dependence (without a seismogenic zonation) and its magnitude dependence (without using Gutenberg–Richter's relationship). The catalogue is that of the Instituto Geográfico Nacional, supplemented with other catalogues around the periphery; the quantification of events has been homogenised and spatially or temporally interrelated events have been suppressed to assume a Poisson process. <br><br> The activity rate is determined by the kernel function, the bandwidth and the effective periods. The resulting rate is compared with that produced using Gutenberg–Richter statistics and a zoned approach. Three attenuation relationships have been employed, one for deep sources and two for shallower events, depending on whether their magnitude was above or below 5. The results are presented as seismic hazard maps for different spectral frequencies and for return periods of 475 and 2475 yr, which allows constructing uniform hazard spectra.

 References Akkar, S. and Bommer, J.: Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA, PGV and spectral accelerations in Europe, the Mediterranean region, and the Middle-East, Seismol. Res. Lett., 81, 195–206, 2010. Ambraseys, N. N., Simpson, K. A., and Bommer, J. J.: Prediciton of horizontal response spectra in Europe, Earthq. Eng. Struct. D., 25, 371–400, 1996. Ambraseys, N., Douglas, J., Sarma, S., and Smith, P.: Equations for the estimation of strong ground motion from shallow crustal earthquakes using data from Europe and the Middle East: horizontal peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration, B. Earthq. Eng., 3, 1–53, 2005. ASCE – American Society of Civil Engineers: Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures, ASCE Standard No. 7–10, American Society of Civil Engineering, 2010. Barani, S., Spallarossa, D., and Bazzurro, P.: Disaggregation of probabilistic ground-motion hazard in Italy, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 99, 2638–2661, 2009. Benito, B., Gaspar, J., García, J., Jiménez, M., and García, M.: Riesgo Sísmico en la Región de Murcia. RISMU R. Vol. 1: Evaluación de la Peligrosidad Sísmica, Technical Report, Protección Civil, 2006. Benito, B., Navarro, M., Vidal, F., Gaspar-Escribano, J., García-Rodríguez, M., and Martínez-Solares, J.: A new seismic hazard assessment in the region of Andalusia (Southern Spain), B. Earthq. Eng., 98, 739–766, 2010. Beyer, K. and Bommer, J.: Relationships between median values and between aleatory variabilities for different definitions of the horizontal component of motion, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 96, 1512–1522, 2006. Bommer, J., Stafford, P., Alarcón, J., and Akkar, S.: The influence of magnitude range on empirical ground motion predicion, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 97, 2152–2170, 2007. Bommer, J., Douglas, J., Scherbaum, F., Cotton, F., Bungum, H., and Fäh, D.: On the selection of ground-motion prediction equations for seismic hazard analysis, Seismol. Res. Lett., 81, 783–793, 2010. Bragato, P. and Slejko, D.: Empirical ground-motion attenuation relations for the eastern Alps in the magnitude range 2.5–6.0, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 95, 252–276, 2005. BRGM – Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières: Base de Données SisFrance, available at: <a href="http://www.sisfrance.net">http://www.sisfrance.net</a> (last access: November 2010), Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières, 2010. CEN – Comité Européen de Normalisation: Eurocode 8: Design of Structures for Earthquake Resistance. Part 1: General Rules, Seismic Actions and Rules for Buildings, 2004. Cotton, F., Scherbaum, F., Bommer, J., and Bungum, H.: Criteria for selecting and adjusting ground-motion models for specific targel applications: applications to central Europe and Rock Sites, J. Seismol., 6, 137–156, 2006 Crespo, M. J.: Análisis de la Peligrosidad Sísmica en la Península Ibérica Basado en Estimadores de Densidad Kernel, Ph.D. Thesis, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, 2011. Crespo, M. J. and Martí, J.: The use of a zoneless method in four LNG sites in Spain, 12th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering, London, 2002. Crespo, M. J., Martí, J., and Martínez, F.: Metodología con y sin Zonas para 5 Emplazamientos y Comparación con la NCS E, 2nd Congreso Nacional de Ingeniería Sísmica, Asociación Española de Ingeniería Sísmica, Málaga, 2003. Crespo, M. J., Martí, J., and Martínez, F.: Peligrosidad Sísmica en la Zona Central del Archipiélago Canario, 3rd Congreso Nacional de Ingeniería Sísmica, Asociación Española de Ingeniería Sísmica, Gerona, 2007. Douglas, J.: On the regional dependence of earthquake response spectra, ISET J. Earthq. Technol., 44, 71–99, 2007. Fix, E. and Hodges, J.: Discriminatory analysis, nonparametric estimation: consistency properties, Tech. rep., report no. 4, Project no. 21–49-004, USAF School of Aviation Medicine, Randolph Field, Texas, 1951. Frankel, A.: Mapping seismic hazard in the Central United States, Seismol. Res. Lett., 66, 8–21, 1995. Gaspar-Escribano, J. M., Benito, B., and García-Mayordomo, J.: Hazard-consistent ground motions in the region of Murcia (SE Spain), B. Earthq. Eng., 6, 179–196, 2008 Gaspar-Escribano, J. M., Benito, B., and Rivas-Medina, A.: Nuevo Estudio de Peligrosidad Sísmica en Navarra, 4° Congreso Nacional de Ingeniería Sísmica, Granada, 2011. García-Mayordomo, J.: Caracterización y análisis de la peligrosidad Sismica en el sureste de España, Ph.D. Thesis, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 2005. García-Mayordomo, J., Gaspar-Escribano, J. M., and Benito, B.: Seismic hazard assessment of the province of Murcia (SE Spain): analysis of source contribution to hazard, J. Seismol., 11, 453–471, 2007. Gardner, J. and Knopoff, L.: Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with aftershocks removed, poissonian?, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 64, 1363–1367, 1974. Giner, J. J.: Sismicidad y peligrosidad sísmica en la Comunidad Autónoma Valenciana, Análisis de incertidumbres, Ph.D. thesis, Universidad de Granada, Granada, 1996. Giner, J. J., Molina, S., and Jauregui, P.: Advantages of using sensitivity analysis in seismic hazard assessment: a case study of sites in Southern and Eastern Spain, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 543–554, 2002. Goda, K., Aspinall, W., and Taylor, C. A.: Seismic hazard analysis for the UK: sensitivity to spatial seismicity modelling and ground motion prediction equations, Seismol. Res. Lett., 84, 112–129, 2013. Gruppo di lavoro CPTI: Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani, versione 2004 (CPTI04), INGV, Bologna, 2004. Gutenberg, B. and Richter, C.: Frequency of earthquakes in California, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 34, 185–188, 1944. Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y. Y., and Jackson, D. D.: High-resolution time-independent grid-based forecast for <i>m</i> > 5 earthquakes in California, Seismol. Res. Lett., 78, 37–48, 2007. IGN – Instituto Geográfico Nacional: Catálogo de Terremotos, available at: <a href="http://www.ign.es">http://www.ign.es</a> (last access: November 2010), 2010. ISC – International Seismological Centre: ISC Bulletin: event catalogue search, available at: <a href="http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscbulletin/search/catalogue/">http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscbulletin/search/catalogue/</a> (last access: November 2010), 2010. Jackson, D. D. and Kagan, Y. Y.: Testable earthquake forecasts for 1999, Seismol. Res. Lett., 70, 393–403, 1999. López-Casado, C., Molina-Palacios, S., Delgado, J., and Peláez, J. A.: Attenuation of intensity with epicentral distance in the Iberian Peninsula, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 90, 34–47, 2000. Martínez-Solares, J. M. and López-Arroyo, A.: The great historical 1755 earthquake. Effects and damage in Spain, J. Seismol., 8, 275–294, 2004 Menon, A., Ornthammarath, T., Corigliano, M., and Lai, C. G.: Probabilistic seismic hazard macrozonation of Tamil Nadu in Southern India, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 100, 1320–1341, 2010. Mezcua, J., Rueda, J., and Garcia-Blanco, R. M.: A new probabilistic seismic hazard study of Spain, Nat. Hazards, 59, 1087–1108, 2011. Ministerio de Fomento: Norma de Construcción Sismorresistente Española, NCSE-02, 2003. Ministerio de Fomento: Actualización de Mapas de Peligrosidad Sísmica de España 2012, 2013. Molina, S.: Sismotectónica y Peligrosidad Sísmica del Área de Contacto entre Iberia y África, Ph.D. Thesis, Universidad de Granada, Granada, 1998. NRC-IRC: National Building Code, National Research Council – Institute for Research in Construction, Canada, 2010. OPCM: Norme Tecniche per le Construzioni, Ordinanza del Presidente del Consiglio dei Ministri (Italy), 2008. Peláez, J., Chourak, M., Tadili, B., Aït Brahim, L., Hamdache, M., López Casado, C., and Martínez Solares, J.: A catalog of major moroccan earthquakes from 1045 to 2005, Seismol. Res. Lett., 78, 614–621, 2007. Peláez-Montilla, J. A. and López-Casado, C.: Seismic hazard estimate at the iberian peninsula, Pure Appl. Geophys., 159, 2699–2713, 2002. Sachs, M. K., Lee, Y., Turcotte, D. L., Holliday, J. R., and Rundle, J. B.: Evaluating the RELM test results, Int. J. Geophys., 2012, 543482, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/543482">https://doi.org/10.1155/2012/543482</a> 2012. Secanell, R., Bertil, D., Martin, C., Goula, X., Susagna, T., Tapia, M., Dominique, P., Carbon, D., and Fleta, J.: Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Pyrenean region, J. Seismol., 12, 323–341, 2008. Silverman, B.: Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis, Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability, 26, Chapman and Hall, 1986. Sousa, M. L. and Campos, A.: Ground motion scenarios consistent with probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis, application to mainland Portugal, B. Earthq. Eng., 7, 127–147, 2009. Sousa, M. L. and Oliveira, C. S.: Hazard mapping based on macroseismic data considering the influence of geological conditions, Nat. Hazards, 14, 207–225, 1996. Stafford, P. J., Strasser, F. O., and Bommer, J. J.: An evaluation of the applicability of the NGA models to ground-motion prediction in the Euro-Mediterranean region, B. Earthq. Eng., 6, 149–177, 2008. Stein, S., Geller, R., and Liu, M.: Bad assumptions or bad luck. Why earthquake hazard maps need objective testing, Seismol. Res. Lett., 82, 623–626, 2011. Stich, D., Ammon, C., and Morales, J.: Moment tensor solutions for small and moderate earthquakes in the Ibero-Maghreb region, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2148–2167, 2003. Stich, D., Martín, R., and Morales, J.: Moment tensor inversion for Ibera-Maghreb earthquakes, Tectonophysics, 483, 390–398, 2010. USGS – US Geological Survey: Earthquake Catalogue, available at: <a href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/epic/">http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/epic/</a> (last access: November 2010), 2011. Vere-Jones, D.: Statistical methods for the description and display of earthquake catalogs, in: Statistics in the Environmental and Earth Sciences, Arnold Publishers, 220–246, 1992. Vilanova, S. and Fonseca, J.: Probabilistic seismic hazard assesment for Portugal, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 97, 1702–1717, 2007. Woo, G.: Kernel estimation methods for seismic hazard area modelling, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 86, 353–362, 1996a. Woo, G.: Seismic hazard program: KERFRACT, Program Documentation, 1996b. Youngs, R., Chiou, S., Silva, W., and Humphrey, J.: Strong ground motion attenuation relationships for subduction zone earthquakes, Seismol. Res. Lett., 68, 58–73, 1997.